December 25, 2025 — U.S. markets are closed for Christmas, but the semiconductor sector enters the holiday break with momentum, fresh AI-driven headlines, and a growing stack of 2026 forecasts that are increasingly shaping how investors think about chip stocks. A holiday-shortened session on Wednesday (Dec. 24) delivered record closes for major U.S. indexes, while chip names stayed central to the “AI spending vs. valuation” debate that has defined the second half of 2025. [1]
Below is a detailed roundup of the most important semiconductor-stock news, forecasts, and analyst takes in circulation as of Dec. 25, 2025—from Nvidia’s new Groq licensing pact to Micron’s “tight through 2026+” memory message, and from equipment spending projections to the policy risks investors can’t ignore.
Semiconductor stocks: the key headlines investors are digesting on Dec. 25, 2025
1) Nvidia signs a non-exclusive inference licensing deal with Groq—and hires its top executives. Groq says its founder Jonathan Ross and President Sunny Madra will join Nvidia, while Groq continues as an independent company with Simon Edwards stepping in as CEO. [2]
2) Intel’s foundry pitch faces a new credibility test after reporting that Nvidia stopped moving forward with Intel’s 18A process evaluation. That matters because Intel’s ability to attract major external customers is central to its foundry turnaround narrative. [3]
3) Micron’s earnings and guidance continue to ripple across the sector, reinforcing the HBM-led “tight supply” story into and beyond 2026. Micron also lifted its 2026 capex plan (reported by Reuters) as it chases AI memory demand. [4]
4) Equipment spending forecasts are being revised upward again on AI buildout—supportive for ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, Tokyo Electron, and the broader semiconductor tools complex. [5]
5) Investors are weighing geopolitical policy as a direct earnings variable—especially U.S.–China tariff timing and Nvidia’s potential resumption of certain China shipments. [6]
Why semiconductor stocks still “run” the AI narrative—even on a market holiday
Semiconductors remain the highest-leverage way for equity markets to express a view on AI infrastructure. That’s because the AI boom is still fundamentally a compute + memory + networking + packaging story—meaning the supply chain stretches from GPU/accelerator vendors to memory makers, foundries, and the equipment companies enabling new capacity.
Reuters’ year-end market outlook framing is blunt: AI spending, corporate profit growth, and the path of Fed policy are widely seen as core swing factors for 2026 returns. In that context, semiconductor stocks sit at the intersection of all three. [7]
The tension for investors is also familiar: the same AI capex wave powering revenue growth can raise margin questions and amplify “bubble” concerns—especially when spending visibility is high but the timing of broad productivity payoffs is debated. [8]
Nvidia and Groq: a deal aimed squarely at AI inference—and a sign of how Big Tech is “buying” innovation in 2025
What happened
Groq announced on Dec. 24 that it entered a non-exclusive inference technology licensing agreement with Nvidia, and that several senior Groq leaders—including founder Jonathan Ross and President Sunny Madra—will join Nvidia. Groq also said it will continue operating independently, with Simon Edwards stepping into the CEO role. [9]
Reuters reported the arrangement as part of a broader pattern: large tech companies increasingly use licensing + hiring key teams rather than outright acquisitions—an approach that can move fast and may reduce the appearance of classic M&A consolidation (though scrutiny still exists). [10]
Why it matters for semiconductor stocks
The investment takeaway is less about one startup and more about the strategic pivot it represents:
- Inference is becoming the next battleground. Nvidia is dominant in training, but inference is where competition is intensifying—from AMD to startups like Groq and Cerebras, as Reuters notes. [11]
- Memory constraints are shaping architectures. Reuters highlights that Groq’s approach uses SRAM-based on-chip memory to reduce dependence on external high-bandwidth memory, trading off flexibility/model size for speed and availability—an important concept as HBM stays tight. [12]
- It’s a “talent + IP gravity” signal. When a market leader hires the executive core of a challenger, it can reshape competitive timelines—even if the deal is labeled “non-exclusive.” [13]
In short: Nvidia is spending strategic capital to defend the inference layer, not just the training layer—an important nuance for chip-stock investors heading into 2026. [14]
Intel and 18A: the foundry narrative runs into a reality check
Intel’s manufacturing comeback depends heavily on proving that its advanced nodes can win meaningful external business. Reuters reported that Nvidia had tested whether it would manufacture chips on Intel’s 18A process but stopped moving forward, citing people familiar with the matter. Intel said 18A is “progressing well,” and pointed to interest in its next-generation 14A process. [15]
This is especially sensitive because Intel is trying to position itself as a credible alternative manufacturing platform at a time when geopolitical “onshoring” and supply-chain diversification remain headline themes. [16]
For semiconductor stocks broadly, the read-through is two-sided:
- For Intel, it underscores execution risk: big-name validations and volume commitments are still hard-won. [17]
- For TSMC and leading foundry ecosystems, it reinforces why the market still assigns premium confidence to proven high-volume track records. (That dynamic also surfaces indirectly in equipment spending projections focused on leading-edge logic capacity.) [18]
Micron, HBM, and the memory cycle: the clearest “AI demand signal” in semis right now
If 2024 was the year AI training demand overwhelmed accelerator supply, 2025 increasingly looks like the year memory became the constraint investors can model.
Reuters’ Micron coverage after earnings made several points that matter for semiconductor-stock forecasts:
- Micron forecast second-quarter adjusted profit far above Wall Street expectations, citing soaring memory prices amid tight supply and booming AI data-center demand. [19]
- Micron’s CEO said he expects memory markets to remain tight past 2026, and executives described customers not receiving everything they want—classic language that historically supports stronger pricing. [20]
- Micron raised its planned 2026 capital expenditures to $20 billion (from an earlier $18 billion estimate), signaling confidence in sustained demand. [21]
For chip-stock investors, Micron’s message matters beyond MU itself:
- HBM tightness is a bullish read-through for memory peers and for advanced packaging/test ecosystems tied to HBM stacks. [22]
- It supports equipment demand (etch/deposition/inspection/metrology) and strengthens the multi-year tools upcycle narrative. [23]
- It sharpens the “AI capex ROI” debate: if memory remains tight, AI deployment may be constrained by physical supply—not just software readiness—potentially prolonging high spend. [24]
Broadcom and custom AI chips: growth is strong, but margins are now part of the story
Broadcom (AVGO) remains one of the most closely watched “AI alternative” plays because it sits at the center of hyperscaler custom silicon and AI networking.
Reuters reported that Broadcom projected revenue above estimates but warned margins would dip due to a higher mix of AI revenue—highlighting how the market is now drilling into profitability and customer concentration, not just AI growth. [25]
Key details from Reuters that investors are using in 2026 modeling:
- Broadcom cited a $73 billion backlog expected to ship over the next 18 months (per CEO Hock Tan on the call). [26]
- Broadcom said it expects AI semiconductor revenue (custom + networking) to double to $8.2B in the fiscal first quarter, underscoring demand strength. [27]
- But the “AI systems” mix can mean lower gross margins, creating a valuation debate even when the top line looks excellent. [28]
This is a critical evolution for semiconductor-stock coverage going into 2026: AI winners are no longer graded on “growth exists” but on how efficiently the growth converts into profit.
The 2026 forecasts that matter most for semiconductor stocks
1) Industry sales: the sector is still tracking toward a near-$1 trillion 2026 market
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) endorsed the WSTS autumn forecast that projects:
- 2025 global semiconductor sales +22.5% to $772.2B
- 2026 global sales reaching $975.4B (revised up from the spring estimate) [29]
For investors, that sales forecast is a macro tailwind that helps justify why semiconductors remain a top thematic area—especially if AI keeps leading demand in the Americas and Asia-Pacific markets. [30]
2) Equipment cycle: forecasts are being pulled higher on AI + advanced packaging
Two widely cited equipment outlooks are driving discussion:
- Reuters, citing SEMI, reported wafer-fab equipment sales rising ~9% to $126B in 2026 and 7.3% to $135B in 2027, tied to logic and memory capacity expansion for AI. [31]
- SEMI’s own year-end forecast (total semiconductor manufacturing equipment) projects $145B in 2026 and $156B in 2027, emphasizing AI-driven leading-edge logic, memory, and advanced packaging. [32]
Even though the figures reference different slices of equipment spending, the direction is the same: the tools cycle is expected to stay strong for multiple years, supporting ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, and others. [33]
3) Bank and broker “Top Picks” lists: the market is clustering around the same names
Investopedia summarized recent notes from Bank of America and Jefferies arguing that AI remains “the place to be” heading into 2026, with chip stocks as a prime way to express the theme. It highlighted Bank of America’s large-cap semiconductor picks for 2026: Nvidia, Broadcom, Lam Research, KLA, Analog Devices, and Cadence Design Systems, and noted Jefferies also favored Nvidia, Broadcom, Lam, and KLA (plus Applied Materials and Camtek). [34]
A separate Citi call (covered by Investors.com) named Microchip Technology (MCHP) as a top semiconductor pick, pointing to a potential analog rebound driven by low inventories, weak supply growth, and depressed margins—while also warning AI chip volatility could rise later in 2026 as costs and funding questions grow. [35]
Policy and geopolitics: why “trade headlines” are now a semiconductor earnings factor
Semiconductor stocks have always lived with geopolitics, but late 2025 made it explicit: policy decisions are now modeled into revenue trajectories, especially for companies with meaningful China exposure.
China chip tariffs: “delayed,” not gone
Reuters reported the U.S. is delaying the announcement of China chip tariffs until 2027, while noting an additional 50% tariff on Chinese semiconductors already started on Jan. 1, 2025. [36]
Nvidia and China: H200 shipments are becoming a real-time policy test
Reuters has run a sequence of reports describing a major policy shift allowing Nvidia’s H200 exports to China under a 25% fee, alongside regulatory review and political pushback:
- Reuters (Dec. 9) reported the U.S. would allow Nvidia H200 exports to China with a 25% fee and that the same approach would apply to other AI chip firms such as AMD and Intel. [37]
- Reuters (Dec. 22) reported Nvidia told Chinese clients it aims to begin H200 shipments before the Lunar New Year in mid-February 2026—5,000 to 10,000 modules (about 40,000 to 80,000 chips)—but stressed Beijing approval remains a gating factor. [38]
- Reuters (Dec. 22) also reported senior U.S. lawmakers asked Commerce to disclose details and any approvals of license reviews for H200 sales, underscoring ongoing political sensitivity. [39]
For semiconductor stocks, this is the practical takeaway: China exposure can re-rate quickly—up or down—based on licensing, tariffs, and enforcement posture.
A critical “real economy” signal: Taiwan export orders are surging on AI demand
A useful macro cross-check for semiconductor bulls is whether real-world order flow is still accelerating. Reuters reported Taiwan’s November export orders rose 39.5% year over year—the fastest growth in nearly five years—driven by robust AI demand, and that the ministry saw December orders up 36.1% to 39.8% year over year. Taiwan’s orders are widely treated as a bellwether for global tech demand because of TSMC’s central role in the supply chain. [40]
This kind of data is one reason semiconductor-stock optimism has remained resilient despite periodic valuation scares. [41]
What to watch next for semiconductor stocks heading into 2026
Even with holiday-thin liquidity, the next few weeks are set up to answer a handful of questions that will likely determine whether semiconductor stocks broaden, consolidate, or surge again:
- Inference vs. training economics: Nvidia’s Groq licensing move is a reminder that inference is where cost-per-token and latency become the competitive battleground. [42]
- HBM supply and pricing: Micron’s “tight past 2026” posture keeps memory as a potential constraint—and a profit lever—for the AI stack. [43]
- Foundry diversification: If leading customers hesitate to commit to new foundry entrants at the bleeding edge, it reinforces incumbency advantages and shifts expectations for who captures incremental leading-edge wafer demand. [44]
- Equipment spending durability: SEMI’s forecasted multi-year rise in equipment sales is a bullish input—but investors will watch whether spending stays concentrated in AI/leading-edge and whether “mainstream” demand (consumer/auto/industrial) rebounds enough to broaden the cycle. [45]
- Policy path: Tariff timing and export-license decisions remain live variables, especially for companies balancing U.S. leadership with China revenue exposure. [46]
Bottom line for semiconductor stock investors on Dec. 25, 2025
Semiconductor stocks close out 2025 in a familiar—but intensified—position: they are both the engine of the AI trade and the pressure gauge for whether AI spending is sustainable, profitable, and geopolitically durable.
The newest headlines reinforce that reality:
- Nvidia is defending the next phase of AI compute (inference) through licensing and talent acquisition. [47]
- Micron is effectively telling the market that memory tightness is not a one-quarter phenomenon—supporting a longer cycle for memory and for the equipment/packaging stack around it. [48]
- Intel’s foundry ambitions remain a high-stakes execution story, with major-customer validation still uncertain. [49]
- Industry groups and major banks are penciling in a 2026 environment where semiconductor sales approach $1 trillion and equipment spending continues climbing—while also warning volatility can return if AI capex ROI questions sharpen. [50]
This article is informational and reflects reporting and forecasts available as of Dec. 25, 2025; it is not investment advice.
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