U.S. markets are closed for Christmas Day, but the Big Tech stocks story isn’t taking a holiday.
After a holiday-shortened Christmas Eve session that ended with fresh record closes for the Dow and S&P 500—and extended a multi-day “Santa rally” streak—investors are heading into the final trading days of 2025 with one big question: can the Magnificent Seven keep carrying the tape in 2026, or does the AI trade finally have to prove its payoff? [1]
The latest headlines hitting Big Tech today (December 25, 2025) make that debate feel even sharper. Nvidia is cutting a noteworthy licensing deal in the fast-growing inference market. Apple is getting a China demand data point that could reset sentiment. Alphabet is doubling down on the unglamorous but vital bottleneck of AI—power—via a major acquisition. Meanwhile, regulators in Europe are pressing forward with a tougher posture toward Big Tech just as transatlantic tensions rise. [2]
Below is a detailed, publication-ready roundup of the current Big Tech news, forecasts, and market analysis as of 25.12.2025, and what it may mean for investors positioning for 2026.
Big Tech stocks today: the key headlines moving the narrative
Nvidia makes an inference-era move with Groq tech licensing and executive hires
Nvidia is best known as the arms dealer to the AI boom—selling GPUs into hyperscaler and enterprise data centers. Now it’s also signaling how seriously it takes the next phase of AI economics: inference, the “running the model” stage where efficiency and cost per query can matter as much as raw horsepower.
Reuters reports Nvidia will license technology from Groq and hire Groq executives, with the deal framed around inference optimization. Groq (the company) is associated with specialized chips and software approaches designed to run AI models efficiently—exactly the competitive front where cloud giants and upstarts are trying to reduce dependence on expensive general-purpose accelerators. [3]
Why it matters for Big Tech stocks:
If 2026 is the year investors demand measurable ROI from AI spending, the market’s focus could shift from “who buys the most GPUs?” to “who runs models cheapest at scale?” Nvidia’s move reads as a preemptive step to stay central even as customers push harder on cost. [4]
Apple gets a China demand signal: foreign-branded phone shipments surge in November
China remains one of the most sensitive swing factors for Apple’s stock—partly because iPhone demand can shift quickly and partly because the market often treats China as a sentiment barometer for Apple’s global cycle.
Reuters, citing CAICT data and Reuters calculations, reports shipments of foreign-branded phones in China (including Apple’s iPhones) rose 128.4% year-on-year in November, with foreign-branded shipments at 6.93 million units and total China phone shipments up 1.9% to 30.16 million units. [5]
Why it matters for Big Tech stocks:
Even a single strong month can influence near-term expectations heading into earnings season, especially when investor narratives have been sensitive to China competitiveness, demand volatility, and product-cycle strength. This data point doesn’t “solve” the China question—but it does change the tone of it going into 2026. [6]
Alphabet buys Intersect for $4.75 billion, highlighting an underappreciated AI bottleneck: electricity
In one of the most telling AI-era deals of late 2025, Reuters reports Alphabet is buying renewable energy developer Intersect Power for $4.75 billion, explicitly tied to accelerating the buildout of power supply for data centers. Reuters notes Intersect has about 3 gigawatts online and expects 10.8 gigawatts by 2028. [7]
This is the kind of story that tends to get overlooked in day-to-day stock chatter—but it’s increasingly central to the Big Tech investment case.
Why it matters for Big Tech stocks:
AI isn’t just a software story anymore; it’s an infrastructure story. The companies that can secure reliable, scalable power—fast—may have an edge in how quickly they can deploy new compute and monetize AI services. Alphabet’s move effectively treats power development as strategic capacity, not a back-office procurement problem. [8]
Amazon and Google team up on multicloud connectivity
Big Tech “rivalry” is real—but so is customer pressure for interoperability. Reuters reports Amazon and Google launched a joint multicloud networking service intended to let customers establish private, high-speed links between AWS and Google Cloud in minutes rather than weeks. The launch comes after an October AWS outage that disrupted thousands of sites, and Reuters cites Parametrix estimating losses of $500 million to $650 million for U.S. companies from that outage. [9]
Reuters also reiterates the cloud pecking order—AWS remains the largest provider—and notes AWS delivered $33 billion in revenue in Q3 2025, “more than double” Google Cloud’s $15.16 billion. [10]
Why it matters for Big Tech stocks:
Cloud growth is one of the most important “real economy” monetization tracks for AI. If customers want multicloud resilience and flexibility, Amazon and Google’s cooperation could be less about détente and more about defending core cloud franchises against downtime risk—and against a world where enterprises refuse to be locked into one platform. [11]
Meta faces a fresh regulatory flashpoint over WhatsApp and AI chatbots
Regulators continue to shape the distribution lanes for consumer and business AI. Reuters reports Italy’s antitrust authority ordered Meta to suspend certain WhatsApp contractual terms that authorities suspect could restrict rival AI chatbot providers, with a parallel European Commission investigation also in motion. [12]
Meta has criticized the decision and said it plans to appeal, while regulators frame the issue as a competition and consumer-choice concern in the emerging AI chatbot ecosystem. [13]
Why it matters for Big Tech stocks:
If AI assistants are becoming a new “default interface,” then access to messaging platforms (and their business ecosystems) is strategically valuable. This dispute is a reminder that for Meta—and Big Tech broadly—2026 upside may depend not only on building better models, but also on keeping distribution channels open under increasingly assertive regulation. [14]
AI training lawsuits remain a live risk for Alphabet, Meta, and the wider ecosystem
Legal risk is rising as the AI arms race collides with copyright law. Reuters reports investigative journalist and author John Carreyrou (best known for Bad Blood) and other writers filed a lawsuit alleging multiple AI companies—including Google and Meta, along with OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI and others—used copyrighted books without permission to train AI systems. [15]
Why it matters for Big Tech stocks:
If courts force stricter licensing regimes, settlement costs, or new data constraints, AI margins and product roadmaps could shift. For public markets, it’s another reminder that the AI opportunity is not only technical—it’s also legal and political. [16]
Tesla’s governance overhang shifts after Musk pay package appeal win
Tesla sits at the edge of “Big Tech” and “mega-cap AI/robotics optionality” in many investors’ frameworks. Reuters reports the Delaware Supreme Court restored Elon Musk’s 2018 Tesla pay package, now valued at roughly $139 billion due to Tesla’s stock price rise, after a lower court had struck it down. [17]
Why it matters for Big Tech stocks:
This is less about a quarterly earnings lever and more about governance, control, and investor perception—especially for a stock that trades heavily on future narratives. It also keeps Tesla intertwined with broader market conversations about founder power, corporate oversight, and shareholder rights. [18]
The market setup: why Big Tech remains the center of gravity into year-end
On Christmas Eve, U.S. stocks closed higher in thin holiday trading, with the Dow and S&P 500 recording record closing highs and the Nasdaq also rising. Reuters describes recent gains as being helped by a rebound in AI-related names after a selloff triggered by concerns about valuations and capex pressure on profits. [19]
That context matters because Big Tech remains the market’s most crowded trade—and the most heavily debated. The bullish view says the mega-caps have the balance sheets, talent, and distribution to monetize AI. The skeptical view says the sector is priced for perfection, and 2026 is when investors start demanding more than “promising demos.” [20]
2026 forecasts: earnings growth, rate cuts, and the “Magnificent Seven” question
Reuters’ 2026 market outlook lays out the core forecast framework investors are using:
- The S&P 500 is up over 17% in 2025 with a few trading days left, after strong gains in 2024 and 2023. [21]
- S&P 500 earnings are projected up over 15% in 2026, following a projected 13% rise in 2025, according to LSEG earnings research cited by Reuters. [22]
- The “Magnificent Seven” (including Nvidia, Apple, Amazon and other megacaps) are expected to see 23% earnings growth in 2026, versus 13% for the rest of the index—suggesting the gap narrows but leadership remains meaningful. [23]
- Strategists cited by Reuters include CFRA’s Sam Stovall with a 2026 year-end S&P 500 target of 7,400 (about 7% above current levels at the time), and Deutsche Bank with a target of 8,000 (roughly 16% higher). [24]
- Fed funds futures imply expectations for at least two more quarter-point cuts in 2026, after cuts in 2024 and 2025, though Reuters notes the “soft landing vs recession” balance remains critical. [25]
What this means for Big Tech stocks in plain English:
If valuations are already “lofty,” as Reuters puts it, then earnings delivery matters more than multiple expansion. That often favors mega-cap platforms—but only if their AI spending translates into revenue and margins fast enough to satisfy markets that have become less patient. [26]
The biggest swing factor for Big Tech in 2026: AI spending—its scale, and its payoff
The bull case: AI infrastructure is becoming a multi-year buildout
Big Tech is still spending like AI is inevitable—and on the infrastructure side, it probably is.
Reuters reports Microsoft unveiled $23 billion in new AI investments, with $17.5 billion earmarked for India starting in 2026, and more than C$7.5 billion (about $5.42 billion) planned for Canada over two years, including new cloud capacity slated to come online in the second half of 2026. [27]
The same Reuters report notes U.S. cloud providers are expected to spend more than $400 billion on AI to build out data centers supporting systems like ChatGPT, Copilot, and Gemini. [28]
The bear case: many companies still aren’t seeing returns—and some may delay spending
If the infrastructure boom is the “what,” the ROI problem is the “so what.”
Reuters reports that across executive surveys, many companies are still struggling to realize meaningful returns from generative AI investments. Forrester found just 15% of executives surveyed saw profit margins improve due to AI over the last year, and BCG found only 5% saw widespread value. Reuters adds Forrester predicts that in 2026, companies will delay about 25% of planned AI spending by a year. [29]
Crucially, Reuters frames the risk in market terms: if organizations can’t convert AI into revenue, margin expansion, or faster innovation, today’s infrastructure spending could start to look like “overbuild”—a setup that some fear could echo the dot-com era’s boom-and-bust dynamics. [30]
Where Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta—and Tesla—fit into that tug-of-war
- Nvidia: still the symbol of AI capex, but now also leaning into inference efficiency via the Groq licensing move. [31]
- Microsoft: doubling down on global AI infrastructure (India, Canada) while investors keep a close eye on whether AI services meaningfully lift margins. [32]
- Alphabet: pairing AI ambition with power strategy (Intersect acquisition), while managing a regulatory backdrop in Europe and litigation risk in AI training. [33]
- Amazon: protecting cloud leadership while embracing multicloud interoperability pressure—an enterprise reality that could influence pricing and retention. [34]
- Apple: watching demand signals in China closely as a key swing factor for sentiment and near-term revenue expectations. [35]
- Meta: attempting to monetize AI through engagement and advertising, but facing heightened scrutiny around platform leverage and AI distribution. [36]
- Tesla: governance and control narratives remain central, even as the stock is often traded as “AI/robotics optionality.” [37]
The overlooked Big Tech constraint: energy, grid access, and power contracts
AI isn’t just compute—it’s kilowatts.
Reuters reports Big Tech is shifting toward an “all of the above” strategy to power data centers, expanding beyond renewables into gas-fired and nuclear as the need for reliable 24/7 power collides with grid connection delays and policy hurdles. [38]
Some of the most striking forecasts and details from Reuters’ energy reporting:
- S&P Global projects utility power supplies to U.S. data centers will jump 22% to 61.8 GW in 2025, reaching 134.4 GW by 2030. [39]
- Reuters describes Meta’s Hyperion data center project in Louisiana, including utility investments in new gas capacity, and notes Meta’s push for “all forms of power” with a focus on what can be built quickly. [40]
- Reuters also notes Big Tech interest in nuclear, including power purchase agreements and investments supporting reactor life extensions and next-gen reactor technologies. [41]
This is exactly why Alphabet’s Intersect deal stands out: it’s a direct attempt to reduce power as a scaling bottleneck for AI-era cloud and data center expansion. [42]
Regulation risk is rising again—and it’s turning into a geopolitical issue
If 2025 was about the AI buildout, the late-2025 policy landscape suggests 2026 could also be about who controls the rules of the digital world.
Reuters reports the EU has continued its Big Tech crackdown, including a 120 million euro fine on X and noting a prior 2.95 billion euro fine on Google. Reuters also points to the EU’s Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act as key tools aimed at companies including Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft. [43]
At the same time, Reuters reports escalating transatlantic tensions after U.S. visa bans targeting Europeans involved in online hate and disinformation enforcement, including former EU commissioner Thierry Breton—one of the architects of the Digital Services Act. The story underscores how regulation of U.S. tech companies has become a flashpoint between Washington and European capitals. [44]
For investors, the takeaway is simple:
Big Tech’s 2026 earnings outlook may be increasingly shaped by non-financial variables—regulators’ willingness to intervene in AI distribution, platform leverage, advertising tech, app ecosystems, and content moderation frameworks. [45]
What to watch next for Big Tech stocks as markets reopen
As trading resumes after the holiday, here are the Big Tech catalysts and risk markers investors are likely to track into early 2026:
- AI ROI proof points
Watch for clearer disclosures on AI-driven revenue, cost savings, or margin impact—because surveys suggest many enterprises are still in experimentation mode, and Forrester expects delayed spending in 2026. [46] - Capex guidance and “show me the returns” investor pressure
Reuters highlights how questions about returns from AI infrastructure spending have already dented AI-linked shares at points, and it remains a critical 2026 theme. [47] - Power strategy as a competitive advantage
Alphabet’s Intersect deal and broader Big Tech moves into gas and nuclear point to a world where energy procurement and grid access can influence who scales AI fastest. [48] - China demand and geopolitics
Apple’s China-linked demand signals, plus the broader U.S.–China relationship cited by Reuters as a potential market wildcard for 2026, will keep volatility elevated. [49] - Regulatory and legal headlines
From WhatsApp competition rules to AI copyright lawsuits and the broader EU-U.S. clash over digital regulation, policy risk looks like it’s re-accelerating. [50]
Bottom line: Big Tech still leads—but 2026 may be the year the market changes its scoring system
On December 25, 2025, the Big Tech stocks narrative is evolving from simple momentum to a more demanding test:
- Newsflow is increasingly about infrastructure (power, data centers, connectivity) and the legal/regulatory rules that shape AI distribution. [51]
- Forecasts still favor the mega-caps, with Reuters citing expectations that the Magnificent Seven will post faster earnings growth than the rest of the market in 2026—though the gap narrows. [52]
- The market’s debate is shifting toward ROI: whether unprecedented AI spending will translate into durable profits—or whether some of it gets delayed, re-scoped, or punished by investors if returns stay elusive. [53]
For investors, that means the Big Tech trade may remain a core index driver—but the winners in 2026 could be the companies that prove they can do three things at once: scale compute, secure power, and turn AI into measurable earnings. [54]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
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