NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) heads into Friday’s Dec. 26, 2025 session with two narratives pulling at the stock at the same time: fresh, headline-driven momentum around inference and deal-making—plus a still-evolving policy story on China shipments—against a backdrop of investors debating how long the AI capex cycle can stay “bigger than expected.”
After U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day on Dec. 25 and reopened on Dec. 26, NVDA is set up for a post-holiday session where liquidity can be thinner, price moves can look exaggerated, and “single headline risk” can matter more than usual. [1]
Below is what to know before the opening bell—including the latest news, the company’s most recent fundamentals and guidance, what analysts are projecting, and the key risks investors are actively pricing.
NVDA stock price snapshot heading into Dec. 26
As of the latest available trading data from the shortened Dec. 24 session (with markets closed on Dec. 25), NVIDIA shares were trading around $188–$189. [2]
Market schedule context matters this week:
- U.S. markets were closed on Thursday, Dec. 25, 2025 (Christmas Day). [3]
- Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025 had an early close (1:00 p.m. ET), which can distort “normal” end-of-day positioning and volume patterns. [4]
- U.S. markets are open Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, setting up the first “full” post-holiday read on sentiment. [5]
One more calendar item that may show up in headlines (even if it typically doesn’t move the stock by itself): NVIDIA’s quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per share is payable on Dec. 26, 2025 (to shareholders of record on Dec. 4, 2025). [6]
The biggest fresh headline: NVIDIA’s Groq licensing deal and inference push
On Dec. 24, Reuters reported that NVIDIA agreed to a non-exclusive licensing deal for Groq’s inference chip technology—and will hire Groq’s founder/CEO Jonathan Ross, president Sunny Madra, and other engineering talent, in what looks like an “acqui-hire” style move without a formal acquisition. [7]
Why this matters for NVDA stock (especially into the next open)
1) It’s a direct signal NVIDIA is leaning harder into inference.
Groq specializes in low-latency inference (the “serving” side of AI once models are trained). Reuters framed inference as an area with more competitive pressure for NVIDIA than training—where AMD and specialized startups are pushing hard. [8]
2) The structure hints at a “deal era” strategy across Big Tech.
Reuters noted a broader pattern where large tech firms use licensing + talent moves rather than full acquisitions—often in response to regulatory scrutiny. That matters because the market often prefers clarity: an acquisition has a price tag and integration plan; a license + hires can be strategically smart, but harder to model financially in the near term. [9]
3) It reinforces NVIDIA’s messaging: the AI market is shifting from training-only to training + inference at scale.
This aligns with NVIDIA’s longer-running narrative that the next phase of AI demand isn’t just “build the model,” it’s “run the model for everyone, everywhere,” which can support continued datacenter refresh cycles.
China export policy is back in focus: H200 reviews and potential shipments
China-related headlines have re-emerged as a major near-term swing factor for NVDA—because policy decisions can change the size of the addressable market quickly, while also adding regulatory and reputational risk.
1) U.S. review of advanced NVIDIA chip sales to China
Reuters reported on Dec. 19 that the Trump administration launched an inter-agency review that could lead to the first shipments to China of NVIDIA’s H200 chips, with the U.S. Commerce Department sending license applications to the State, Energy, and Defense departments. Reuters said those agencies have 30 days to weigh in, with the final decision resting with President Trump. [10]
Reuters also reported Trump said this month he would allow sales of H200 chips to China with a 25% fee, a shift from prior restrictions. [11]
2) NVIDIA’s reported shipment planning for China (timeline + quantities)
On Dec. 22, Reuters reported NVIDIA told Chinese clients it aims to begin shipping H200 chips to China before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February 2026, with initial shipments expected to total 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules—equivalent to about 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips—sourced from existing stock. Reuters emphasized uncertainty because Beijing approval was still pending. [12]
NVIDIA told Reuters that licensed sales of the H200 to authorized customers in China would have no impact on its ability to supply U.S. customers, and that it continuously manages its supply chain. [13]
What to watch on Dec. 26
If you’re looking for what can actually move NVDA quickly in the first hour of Friday’s session, China policy headlines are high on the list:
- Any update on the license review timeline or political pushback in Washington [14]
- Any indication of China-side conditions (Reuters referenced uncertainty around Beijing approvals) [15]
- Investor interpretation of whether China access would be incremental upside or a headline-risk trap (i.e., “good news today, reversal risk tomorrow”)
NVIDIA’s most recent fundamentals: what the company guided, and what investors are debating
While the stock often trades on AI narratives, the last earnings cycle still anchors how analysts build their models.
Q3 FY2026 results (quarter ended Oct. 26, 2025)
NVIDIA reported:
- Revenue: $57.0 billion (record), up 22% quarter-over-quarter and up 62% year-over-year [16]
- Data Center revenue: $51.2 billion (record), up 25% quarter-over-quarter and up 66% year-over-year [17]
- GAAP gross margin: 73.4% [18]
- GAAP EPS (diluted): $1.30 [19]
CEO Jensen Huang said in the release that “Blackwell sales are off the charts” and that cloud GPUs were “sold out.” [20]
Q4 FY2026 outlook (company guidance)
For the fourth quarter of FY2026, NVIDIA guided:
- Revenue: $65.0 billion ± 2% [21]
- GAAP gross margin: 74.8% ± 50 bps (and non-GAAP 75.0% ± 50 bps) [22]
What skeptics are focusing on (even after strong numbers)
A Reuters wrap of that earnings cycle highlighted several debate points investors keep returning to:
- Customer concentration: Reuters reported four customers accounted for 61% of sales in the fiscal third quarter. [23]
- Sustainability of hyperscaler capex: Reuters quoted analysts arguing AI infrastructure spend could be hard to sustain indefinitely. [24]
- “Circular AI economy” concerns: Reuters reported NVIDIA increased its bets on AI companies that are also customers, and referenced concerns about financing dynamics in the broader ecosystem. [25]
This is the core tension in NVDA right now: the numbers are huge—and guidance is huge—but the market is constantly trying to decide whether the cycle is “early innings” or “late innings.”
Product roadmap and demand signals: Blackwell now, Rubin next
Investors tend to treat NVIDIA’s datacenter roadmap as a “demand continuity” story: if a clear cadence exists, customers plan refreshes accordingly.
Reuters reported in March 2025 that:
- Blackwell Ultra would be available in the second half of 2025
- Vera Rubin (the successor system to Blackwell) would be released in the second half of 2026
- Rubin would be followed by Feynman in 2028 [26]
Why this matters heading into Dec. 26:
- Bulls see this cadence as NVIDIA “staying ahead of commoditization.”
- Bears see faster cycles as potentially accelerating depreciation pressure on older hardware and compressing customer ROI windows—especially if the broader AI buildout becomes over-leveraged.
On that “risk” framing, a recent The Verge analysis focused on the growing role of GPU-backed lending and leverage in parts of the AI data center market—arguing that a credit-style unwind could pressure the ecosystem if demand disappoints or chip values fall faster than expected. [27]
Expansion beyond the U.S.: South Korea deal underscores global “AI factory” buildout
One reason NVIDIA has remained a market bellwether is that demand is not only hyperscalers—it’s governments and industrial giants building national AI capacity.
Reuters reported in October that NVIDIA would supply more than 260,000 Blackwell AI chips to South Korea’s government and major companies including Samsung, with the South Korean government planning to invest in AI infrastructure using more than 50,000 of NVIDIA’s latest chips. [28]
Investors will typically read this kind of headline as:
- A demand validation signal (NVIDIA still the default choice for “AI infrastructure”), and
- A partial offset to geopolitical restrictions elsewhere—though it doesn’t eliminate China risk.
Wall Street forecasts: what analysts’ price targets imply for NVDA
Analyst price targets are not guarantees, but they shape positioning—especially into year-end and the first weeks of January when portfolios rebalance.
Here’s where several widely followed consensus trackers place NVDA right now:
- MarketBeat: average 12‑month price target $262.14 (high $352, low $205) with a consensus rating of “Buy,” based on 53 analyst ratings. [29]
- StockAnalysis: average price target $252.49, consensus rating “Strong Buy,” noting a target range of $100 to $352 among the analysts it tracks. [30]
And on the more aggressive end of the spectrum, TipRanks highlighted Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis raising a target to $352 (as presented by TipRanks), alongside ongoing mentions of China and macro risks. [31]
How to interpret targets heading into the open
For short-term trading (like Dec. 26), targets matter less than catalyst timing. Still, targets can influence:
- Whether “dip buyers” step in quickly after a negative headline
- Whether upside moves are met with “sell into strength” behavior near year-end
- How investors frame valuation: “expensive but justified” vs “priced for perfection”
Key risks to keep in mind before Friday’s open
Even a bullish NVDA setup should be read through the lens of identifiable risk buckets—especially on a post-holiday session where headline reactions can be sharp.
1) Policy and geopolitics (China, licensing, compliance)
- The U.S. review process for H200 exports, the 25% fee concept, and political pushback are all live variables. [32]
- Reuters also stressed uncertainty on the China-side approval path for purchases. [33]
2) Customer concentration and capex durability
When a large portion of revenue is concentrated among a few major customers, the stock can react strongly to any signal (earnings, capex commentary, cloud pricing shifts) from those companies. Reuters reported 61% of revenue came from four customers in the quarter discussed. [34]
3) Competitive pressure in inference
The Groq licensing move itself underscores the point: inference is becoming a more contested battleground than training, and NVIDIA is investing to stay ahead. [35]
4) Ecosystem leverage and “AI financing” dynamics
If parts of the AI datacenter ecosystem are dependent on high leverage and aggressive growth assumptions, the entire supply chain can become more fragile—even if NVIDIA remains the dominant chip supplier. [36]
5) Emerging challengers (including China’s domestic GPU push)
Chinese GPU maker Moore Threads recently unveiled new GPU architecture claims (per Tom’s Hardware), illustrating ongoing domestic efforts to narrow the gap—an undercurrent that can influence how both Washington and Beijing think about chip policy. [37]
What to watch premarket and into the first hour on Dec. 26
If you want a practical checklist for “what matters tomorrow morning” for NVDA, focus on these:
- China policy headlines (U.S. + China-side approvals): any update can move the stock fast. [38]
- Follow-through on the Groq deal narrative: investors will look for whether the market treats it as “smart inference expansion” or “paying up for talent.” [39]
- Post-holiday liquidity: thin volume can amplify swings; don’t over-interpret the first 15 minutes. [40]
- Broader “Santa Claus rally” framing: some outlets note Dec. 26 has historically been a strong day for the S&P 500 when markets are open—useful context, but not a trading rule. [41]
Bottom line for NVDA stock before the Dec. 26 open
NVIDIA enters the Dec. 26 session with:
- A fresh strategic headline on inference (Groq licensing + executive hires) [42]
- A high-impact China policy storyline that could expand near-term opportunity and raise headline risk [43]
- Strong recent fundamentals and guidance anchored by datacenter growth and a $65B revenue outlook for the next quarter (per company guidance) [44]
- Analyst targets that, in aggregate, still imply notable upside—but with a wide dispersion that signals real disagreement about how “priced in” the AI boom may be [45]
For readers heading into Friday: the most important developments are likely to be policy-driven (China licensing/approval headlines) and sentiment-driven (how the market interprets NVIDIA’s inference positioning), rather than any single new datapoint about quarterly performance—which investors already digested in November. [46]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
References
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