The New Zealand stock market will not open today, Friday 26 December 2025, because the NZX is closed for Boxing Day. The last trading session was the abbreviated Christmas Eve session on Wednesday 24 December, and the next time most investors can act on fresh headlines in local equities is when trading resumes after the holiday break. [1]
Even with the market shut, today still matters: U.S. markets reopen later (New Zealand time), commodities have been moving in thin year‑end liquidity, and several domestic macro and company-specific developments from the past week are likely to shape positioning when NZ shares trade again.
Below is what investors should know heading into the next NZX session.
At a glance: where the NZX left off
- S&P/NZX 50 Index last reading: 13,529.06, reflecting the final pre-Christmas session (data shown as of 26/12/2025 on the NZX indices page). [2]
- Recent momentum: the index logged a solid pre-Christmas lift earlier in the week (including a +1.31% move on 22 December), before a quieter finish into Christmas Eve. [3]
- Today’s reality check: NZX is closed 25–26 December; 24 December was an abbreviated trading day. [4]
NZX trading calendar: why there’s no “open” today
NZX market participants were formally advised that:
- Wednesday 24 December 2025: abbreviated trading
- Thursday 25 December 2025: closed (Christmas Day)
- Friday 26 December 2025: closed (Boxing Day)
- Wednesday 31 December 2025: abbreviated trading
- Thursday 1 January 2026 and Friday 2 January 2026: closed [5]
For investors, the practical implication is that any offshore moves today and over the weekend can “gap” into local pricing when NZ trading resumes.
What moved NZ shares into Christmas: the late-December tone
A strong start to Christmas week (then a quiet fade)
The NZX 50’s late-December pattern has been typical of year-end markets: bigger swings when the market is staffed and liquid, then quieter price action into holidays.
On Monday 22 December, an Interest.co.nz daily market update highlighted broad-based gains, led by a2 Milk, with support from names such as EBOS Group and Fletcher Building. [6]
By Christmas Eve (24 December), market commentary described an abbreviated, relatively quiet session, with index gains modest and stock-specific moves doing most of the work. [7]
Why thin liquidity matters now
Holiday markets can exaggerate moves in:
- rate-sensitive defensives (utilities, property)
- large index weights (healthcare, infrastructure)
- FX-sensitive exporters (manufacturing, primary sector adjacencies)
This is relevant because several big macro headlines in the past week (below) have been interest-rate and currency centric.
The biggest New Zealand market drivers from the past week
1) Banks and rates: RBNZ’s capital reset is a major 2026 theme
One of the most market-relevant local developments in recent days: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced changes following its banking capital review, including lowering some capital requirements for banks while adding/adjusting other buffers (such as internal loss-absorbing capacity). [8]
Why equity investors care:
- The RBNZ explicitly framed the changes as likely to reduce funding costs and support lower interest rates / increased lending over time, which can shift the outlook for bank margins, credit growth, and rate-sensitive sectors. [9]
- Fitch said there was no immediate rating impact from the proposed capital rules (important nuance for bank funding spreads and wholesale markets). [10]
What to watch when NZX reopens:
- whether investors rotate toward property, utilities, and other “bond proxy” stocks on the idea that the structural direction of funding costs is easing
- whether bank-related sentiment improves on lower capital intensity, or whether investors focus on the complexity of the new framework and implementation timeline [11]
2) RBNZ: OCR at 2.25% and the “end of easing” signal
The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate to 2.25% at its late‑November decision and signaled a bias toward holding unless the outlook deteriorates. [12]
That matters for NZ equities because the NZ market has meaningful exposure to:
- yield plays (utilities, infrastructure, property)
- domestic cyclicals tied to consumer and housing sensitivity
- exporters affected by FX differentials
The key nuance for late December: as global markets price 2026 rate paths, New Zealand’s “hold” posture intersects with a weakening U.S. dollar theme and shifting global rate expectations. [13]
3) Business confidence: ANZ survey hits a 30-year high
ANZ’s December business survey showed business confidence at its highest in 30 years, with a large share of respondents expecting the economy to improve over the coming year. [14]
For the sharemarket, that can matter in two ways:
- it supports the case that the economy is moving out of its soft patch (helpful for cyclicals)
- it can also create tension if optimism translates into firmer pricing intentions, complicating the inflation outlook over 2026
4) Trade policy: New Zealand–India FTA headline
New Zealand and India concluded a free trade agreement aimed at expanding bilateral trade (with tariff reductions/eliminations across a large share of export lines, though with notable sensitivities). [15]
NZX relevance is indirect but real:
- exporters and logistics-linked names can re-rate on long-run market access narratives
- primary sector sentiment can move even where listed exposure is partial, especially into thin holiday markets
5) Dairy pressure: milk price forecast cut and weak auction signals
Fonterra cut its farmgate milk price forecast range (midpoint now $9.00/kgMS) as global dairy pricing softened. [16]
The latest Global Dairy Trade event (mid‑December) showed the overall GDT Price Index fell 4.4%, underscoring the “price momentum” issue into 2026. [17]
Why NZX investors watch this even if they don’t own dairy exposure directly:
- it feeds into rural income, which affects regional demand, credit quality, and parts of the domestic economy
- it can influence the “NZ growth vs inflation” balance that ultimately drives interest-rate expectations
Key company updates before the break
Even in a quiet holiday week, several NZX announcements are worth having on the radar for the next session.
Seeka upgrades guidance (horticulture tailwind)
Seeka lifted profit before tax guidance to $44m–$48m from $39m–$43m, citing stronger kiwifruit sales returns and solid operating performance. [18]
Colonial Motor Company: “green shoots” and a stronger first half
Colonial Motor Company signaled improved trading momentum, stating trading profit before tax for the six months to 31 December 2025 is anticipated to be at least 20% ahead of the prior comparable period. [19]
Restaurant Brands delisted after takeover timeline
Restaurant Brands’ NZX/ASX delisting process completed earlier in December following Finaccess’s takeover, with trading suspended and the delisting timetable clearly laid out in NZX announcements (including the compulsory acquisition end-date of 24 December 2025). [20]
Why this still matters:
- index and portfolio “housekeeping” effects can show up around year-end
- it’s another reminder that NZ’s listed universe can shift quickly via corporate actions
Offshore lead: what global markets are signaling into the next NZX session
Wall Street: record closes into Christmas Eve
U.S. equities finished higher in the holiday-shortened Christmas Eve session, with major indexes notching record closing highs—supportive for global risk sentiment. [21]
For NZ investors, the key point is timing:
- U.S. markets reopen on Friday 26 December (U.S. time), which is Saturday NZ time, meaning NZ will digest that move on the next local trading day.
FX: the U.S. dollar’s weak-year narrative vs NZD positioning
Reuters reporting this week noted the U.S. dollar is on track for its worst annual performance since 2003, while the New Zealand dollar has gained during 2025 (in that report: up ~4.5%). [22]
Spot context also matters for earnings sensitivity: NZD/USD has been trading around the high-0.57 to mid-0.58 area in recent sessions. [23]
If NZD strengthens further into year-end:
- it can be a headwind for exporters’ translated earnings
- but it can help importers and soften tradables inflation pressure
Commodities: oil up, gold at records, dairy under pressure
Key global commodity moves from the past few days include:
- Oil: Brent around the low-$60s and rising for multiple sessions, with supply-risk headlines and thin liquidity contributing to moves. [24]
- Gold: surged through $4,500/oz to record territory in late December trading, reflecting safe-haven demand, geopolitics, and rate expectations. [25]
- Dairy: the GDT price index decline (noted above) remains a macro watchpoint for New Zealand income and sentiment. [26]
China/iron ore: cross-Tasman risk pulse (and NZ sentiment spillover)
While NZX is not an iron-ore market in the way Australia is, China’s industrial cycle still matters for regional risk appetite. Reuters has pointed to weakening steel output even as iron ore imports trend high, keeping focus on China demand and policy signals. [27]
What to watch before NZ trading resumes
When the NZX reopens after Boxing Day, the market will be forced to price multiple days of inputs quickly. These are the practical catalysts to monitor:
- The U.S. session (26 December U.S. time)
Any sharp move in U.S. equities, yields, or the U.S. dollar can drive NZ index direction at the next open. [28] - NZD swings and rate expectations
The combination of (a) RBNZ’s policy stance and (b) global rate-path repricing can move the NZD—and that can reshuffle leadership between exporters and domestics. [29] - Banks and property: reaction to the capital-rule narrative
Investors may position for a “lower funding costs” impulse into 2026, while watching for detail and timing risk (RBNZ indicated more detail in early 2026). [30] - Holiday headline risk and NZX announcements
Company releases can still drop while the exchange is closed; they simply can’t be traded until the next session. - Liquidity conditions
Late-December and early-January trading can be choppy. Bigger spreads and thinner order books can amplify price swings—especially in smaller-cap names.
Bottom line for 26 December 2025
There is no NZX open today—but investors shouldn’t treat Boxing Day as “dead time.” The market is heading into its next session with:
- a late-December NZX 50 level around 13,529 [31]
- a domestic narrative shaped by bank capital changes, a steady OCR backdrop, and improving business confidence [32]
- and an offshore backdrop featuring record U.S. equity closes, a soft U.S. dollar, and big moves in gold and oil [33]
As always, this is general market commentary—not financial advice.
References
1. announcements.nzx.com, 2. www.nzx.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. announcements.nzx.com, 5. announcements.nzx.com, 6. www.interest.co.nz, 7. www.sharecast.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.fitchratings.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.rbnz.govt.nz, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.interest.co.nz, 17. ahdb.org.uk, 18. www.nzx.com, 19. api.nzx.com, 20. www.nzx.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. nz.finance.yahoo.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. ahdb.org.uk, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.nzx.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com
