NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) heads into Friday, December 26, 2025—the first U.S. trading session after the Christmas Day market closure—with investors weighing two fast-moving storylines that could drive premarket sentiment: NVIDIA’s non-exclusive inference-technology licensing deal with AI chip startup Groq and a politically charged reopening of part of the China market for NVIDIA’s H200 accelerators.
With the company’s next major public milestones—including CES 2026 in early January and a scheduled earnings date in late February—the setup is less about “one headline” and more about how multiple catalysts and risks are converging at once.
Below is what to know before the bell.
NVDA stock snapshot heading into Friday’s open
Because U.S. markets were closed on Thursday, Dec. 25 for Christmas, the most recent trading data reflects Wednesday’s session.
- Last traded price (latest available): $188.61
- Day change: -$0.57 (-0.30%)
- Most recent timestamp shown: Dec. 24, 2025 (UTC)
That puts NVDA back in the center of year-end positioning as investors balance “AI leaders into 2026” enthusiasm with headline risk around regulation, competition, and global supply constraints.
The headline story: NVIDIA strikes a licensing-and-talent deal with Groq
What happened
On Dec. 24, NVIDIA agreed to a non-exclusive license for Groq’s inference technology—and, crucially, Groq’s founder Jonathan Ross, president Sunny Madra, and other team members are joining NVIDIA as part of the arrangement. [1]
Reuters framed it as part of a broader Big Tech pattern: licensing + hiring key executives rather than outright acquisitions, a structure that can reduce (but not eliminate) antitrust friction. [2]
Why it matters for NVIDIA stock
Inference—the “serving” side of AI (chatbot responses, agent workflows, real-time reasoning)—has become a battleground. Groq’s pitch is specialized performance and efficiency for inference, and Reuters noted Groq’s approach uses SRAM-based on-chip memory as a way to work around global memory constraints. [3]
For NVIDIA, the signal to markets is twofold:
- NVIDIA is reinforcing its inference roadmap (not just training dominance).
- Competition is real enough that NVIDIA is willing to license and hire aggressively—even while remaining the industry’s central platform.
What investors will watch next (as early as premarket Friday)
- Any follow-on disclosures on deal economics (terms were not disclosed publicly; CNBC reported an estimated figure, but Groq says it remains independent). [4]
- Whether regulators or politicians characterize the deal as an “acqui-hire” that should face scrutiny, even if it’s not a full acquisition. [5]
- Any product or platform hints on how Groq’s tech is integrated into NVIDIA’s stack (software enablement often matters as much as silicon).
The other big driver: China export policy is shifting again for NVIDIA’s H200
The situation, in plain English
In December, Reuters reported a major policy shift: the U.S. would allow exports of NVIDIA’s H200 chips to China while collecting a 25% fee on those sales, tied to a Trump administration approach that could apply to other chipmakers as well. [6]
That policy shift has created a fast-moving chain reaction:
- The U.S. has launched an interagency review process for license applications that could pave the way for shipments. [7]
- Lawmakers are pushing for disclosure and transparency on any approvals. [8]
- NVIDIA, according to Reuters sources, has told Chinese clients it aims to begin shipping before Lunar New Year in mid-February 2026, but shipments also depend on Beijing’s approval. [9]
The bullish interpretation for NVDA
If H200 sales resume meaningfully, investors may view it as:
- Incremental upside to revenue (even if H200 is not the newest platform), and
- A partial easing of a major overhang that has clouded NVIDIA’s China opportunity.
Reuters also reported NVIDIA told Reuters that licensed H200 sales to authorized customers in China would not impact its ability to supply U.S. customers. [10]
The bear case (and why this may stay volatile)
This isn’t a simple “China reopened” story.
- The U.S. review process is politically sensitive and could tighten again. [11]
- China’s own approval is not guaranteed; Reuters reported uncertainty remains and timelines could shift. [12]
- Reuters also reported NVIDIA has evaluated increasing H200 capacity due to strong China demand—yet it is simultaneously prioritizing newer platforms (Blackwell/Rubin), creating a complex supply-and-priorities equation. [13]
For Friday’s session specifically, the key is that any incremental headline—from Washington, Beijing, or leaks around license timing—can move NVDA quickly in a holiday-thin tape.
A quick fundamentals reset: NVIDIA’s latest earnings, guidance, and margins
NVIDIA’s most recent reported quarter (fiscal Q3 2026, ended Oct. 26, 2025) showed continued AI-driven strength:
- Revenue: $57.0B (up 22% Q/Q, up 62% Y/Y) [14]
- Data Center revenue: $51.2B (up 25% Q/Q, up 66% Y/Y) [15]
- GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins: ~73.4%–73.6% [16]
- Earnings per diluted share (GAAP and non-GAAP): $1.30 [17]
Management commentary also stayed emphatic on demand, with CEO Jensen Huang citing extremely strong Blackwell momentum and continued acceleration across training and inference. [18]
The guidance number Wall Street keeps circling
For fiscal Q4 2026, NVIDIA guided:
- Revenue: $65.0B ±2%
- Gross margin (GAAP/non-GAAP): ~74.8% / 75.0% ±50 bps [19]
For many investors, Friday’s question isn’t “is AI still big?”—it’s whether any combination of export policy + competition + supply constraints changes the path to sustaining those growth and margin levels into 2026.
One near-term, date-specific item for Dec. 26: NVIDIA’s dividend payment
NVIDIA declared it would pay a quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per share on Dec. 26, 2025 to shareholders of record on Dec. 4, 2025. [20]
This is not typically a price-moving event for NVDA (the yield is tiny), but the timing is notable because the payment date is the same day as Friday’s session.
Analyst forecasts and Wall Street sentiment: “Cheap” debate intensifies
Even after a massive multi-year run, a notable theme in December commentary has been valuation and positioning: NVDA has been described as “unusually cheap” relative to its own history and the semiconductor index by some prominent analysts.
Consensus targets (what the numbers say)
Two widely followed aggregators show a broadly bullish Street setup:
- MarketBeat: Consensus rating “Buy”; average 12‑month price target $262.14 (with targets ranging roughly $205 to $352 on that page). [21]
- StockAnalysis: Consensus “Strong Buy”; average target $252.49 (targets shown from $100 to $352). [22]
Recent notable calls
- Investors.com reported Truist raised its price target to $275 from $255 while reiterating a buy view, and that Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon also maintained a $275 target, describing NVDA as trading at unusually low levels versus the SOX index. [23]
- Barron’s also highlighted the “road to China opens up” angle in the context of H200 export license reviews and reiterated analyst optimism around valuation. [24]
The big takeaway for Friday: the analyst community is still largely constructive, but near-term price action could be headline-driven rather than model-driven.
Technical and trading setup for Friday: consolidation, key levels, and holiday liquidity
If you’re writing a “before the open” NVDA story, the technical backdrop matters—especially in the final week of December when liquidity can thin out.
Investors.com described NVDA as being in an eight-week consolidation with a cited buy point at 212.19, and noted the stock had been actionable above its 50-day moving average ahead of CES-related attention. [25]
Separately, Investing.com’s historical-data page shows a 52‑week range that includes 212.19 (matching the idea that this zone has been a key reference point). [26]
What that can mean into the Dec. 26 open
- Breakout attempts can be exaggerated in post-holiday conditions.
- Single headlines (China licensing, follow-up Groq details) can trigger gap moves.
- Options positioning can amplify swings—even without new fundamental data.
(As always: technical levels are reference points, not guarantees.)
Upcoming catalysts beyond Friday that traders may price in early
CES 2026: Jensen Huang in the spotlight (early January)
NVIDIA is scheduled for major CES visibility:
- NVIDIA’s official CES page promotes “NVIDIA Live at CES 2026” with Jensen Huang on Jan. 5 (event timing shown on the page). [27]
- The CES schedule page lists an NVIDIA press conference on Monday, Jan. 5, 1:00–2:30 PM with Jensen Huang. [28]
- Investors.com reports Huang is expected to brief media on Jan. 5 and participate in keynotes on Jan. 6. [29]
Why it matters: CES isn’t just consumer gadgets anymore. NVIDIA increasingly uses global stages to frame its AI infrastructure narrative—and markets can react sharply to roadmap, platform, and partnership announcements.
NVIDIA GTC 2026 (mid-March)
NVIDIA’s GTC page states the conference returns to San Jose March 16–19, 2026, with Jensen Huang’s keynote positioned as a centerpiece. [30]
Next scheduled earnings date (late February)
Wall Street Horizon lists NVIDIA’s next earnings date as Feb. 25, 2026. [31]
For longer-horizon investors, the narrative likely pivots quickly from “Groq + China headlines” to CES messaging, then into earnings positioning.
Other recent items still in the NVDA background (but not the main Dec. 26 driver)
A few additional developments from December and late 2025 remain relevant context:
- NVIDIA-Intel deal cleared by U.S. antitrust agencies, according to a Reuters report citing a Federal Trade Commission notice. [32]
- Reuters reported NVIDIA as one of the tech partners in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Genesis mission alongside other AI companies. [33]
These aren’t necessarily what moves the stock on Friday morning—but they contribute to the market’s perception of NVIDIA’s expanding strategic footprint (and the regulatory lens that comes with it).
What to watch in premarket on Dec. 26
If you’re tracking NVDA into the opening bell, the most actionable checklist is simple:
- Any new reporting on Groq deal terms or integration plans
The deal is non-exclusive and not a full acquisition, but details can still shift investor perception. [34] - Any updates on H200 export licensing (U.S. approvals, interagency review signals, or political pushback)
This is the most headline-sensitive variable right now. [35] - Any updates out of China on purchase approvals
Reuters has emphasized that timing depends on Beijing’s decisions as well. [36] - CES anticipation trade
With Jensen Huang scheduled for CES appearances in early January, momentum and positioning can start early. [37]
Bottom line for Friday’s open
Going into Dec. 26, 2025, NVDA is being pulled by two powerful forces at once:
- Strategic expansion into inference via licensing + talent acquisition (Groq), and
- A potentially revenue-positive but politically volatile reopening of a major market (H200 to China).
Layer in a well-defined catalyst calendar (CES → earnings → GTC) and a stock that analysts increasingly describe as “cheap” relative to history, and it’s easy to see why Friday’s session could be more reactive than routine.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets can move quickly—especially around policy and regulatory developments.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 15. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 16. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 17. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 18. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 19. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 20. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.investors.com, 24. www.barrons.com, 25. www.investors.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.nvidia.com, 28. www.ces.tech, 29. www.investors.com, 30. www.nvidia.com, 31. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.nvidia.com
