U.S. markets reopen Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, after the Christmas Day closure—setting up a post-holiday session where headlines can move mega-cap stocks quickly, especially in thinner-than-normal trading. [1]
For Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META), investors wake up to a familiar mix: strong confidence in the company’s ad engine and distribution, paired with renewed concerns about AI-related spending and regulatory risk, particularly in Europe.
Below is what matters most heading into Friday’s open: the biggest fresh news, what Wall Street is forecasting, and the catalysts (and risks) likely to dominate the next few weeks.
Meta stock snapshot heading into Friday’s session
Meta last traded around $667.55 after the abbreviated Christmas Eve session, giving it a market capitalization of roughly $1.85 trillion. The stock’s 52-week range sits roughly between $460.74 and $752.09, underscoring how much of Meta’s 2025 story has been about a powerful run—followed by a meaningful pullback from the peak.
It’s also worth remembering the calendar mechanics:
- Dec. 24, 2025: U.S. markets held an early close (1:00 p.m. ET). [2]
- Dec. 25, 2025: Markets closed for Christmas Day. [3]
- Dec. 26, 2025: Regular trading resumes, and the day often sits inside the so-called “Santa Claus rally” window that many traders watch for seasonality—though seasonal patterns are never a guarantee. [4]
The biggest breaking story: Italy orders Meta to halt WhatsApp terms that could block rival AI chatbots
The most market-relevant headline into Friday is Europe—again.
On Dec. 24, Italy’s antitrust authority (AGCM) ordered Meta to suspend contractual terms tied to WhatsApp’s business tools that regulators believe could shut out rival AI chatbots, as the watchdog investigates Meta for suspected abuse of dominance. Meta has said it will appeal, calling the decision flawed and arguing that the growth of AI bots strains systems that weren’t designed for broad chatbot distribution. [5]
Why it matters for META investors
This isn’t just a legal footnote—investors care because:
- The policy reportedly stems from an October 2025 change affecting WhatsApp’s business platform tools and their use for distributing “general-purpose” AI assistants. [6]
- Regulators are signaling they may treat WhatsApp not only as a messaging product, but as a gatekeeper distribution channel for AI assistants—raising the stakes around how Meta can bundle, prefer, or protect its own Meta AI experiences. [7]
- Timing is important: reporting around the EU investigation (below) points to a key effective date of Jan. 15, 2026 for the policy’s full applicability. [8]
For traders, this is a “headline risk” situation: developments can land at any time (new regulator statements, appeals, interim measures), and post-holiday liquidity can amplify moves.
Europe doubles down: the European Commission opened its own antitrust investigation into WhatsApp access for AI providers
Italy’s action isn’t happening in isolation. The European Commission opened a formal antitrust investigation on Dec. 4, 2025 to assess whether Meta’s new policy regarding AI providers’ access to WhatsApp breaches EU competition rules. [9]
The Commission’s concern is straightforward: whether the policy could prevent third-party AI providers from offering services through WhatsApp across the European Economic Area. [10]
Reuters reporting also raised a key market-moving possibility: EU regulators could impose interim measures—a faster “pause/stop” tool—if they believe a rollout would cause irreparable competitive harm. [11]
Investor takeaway
In the near term, the investment question isn’t “Does WhatsApp policy move revenue tomorrow?” It’s: Does Europe force Meta to change product plans or bundling strategy in a way that slows AI monetization—or adds compliance costs and uncertainty?
Separate EU thread: Meta’s “pay-or-consent” ad model got a nod—after a DMA fine earlier in 2025
While the WhatsApp AI story heats up, Meta also has a parallel EU regulatory arc around advertising and consent.
On Dec. 8, 2025, Reuters reported that Meta’s proposal to use less personal data for targeted advertising in its “pay-or-consent” model won approval from EU antitrust regulators—reducing the risk of daily fines tied to the EU’s Digital Markets Act enforcement posture. The coverage also notes Meta had previously been hit with a 200 million euro DMA fine earlier in 2025 for the Facebook/Instagram model during an earlier period. [12]
Separately, the European Commission’s own DMA-facing communication says Meta will present EU users with an “effective choice” and roll out the new options in January 2026. [13]
Why the market still cares
Even when a regulator “nods,” investors pay attention because the EU ad framework affects:
- Targeting efficiency (and therefore pricing and ad ROI),
- the user experience and opt-in rates,
- and the long-term durability of Meta’s Europe revenue base.
Meta itself has flagged EU regulatory headwinds as potentially meaningful to business and results. [14]
Another Europe shockwave: Austria’s top court ruled Meta’s personalized ad model unlawful
Adding to the European risk stack, Reuters reported that Austria’s Supreme Court ruled Meta’s personalized advertising model unlawful and ordered significant user-data disclosure and constraints, with the decision described as enforceable across the EU. [15]
Meta disputes parts of the finding and notes the case relates to older practices, but the ruling is another reminder that Europe remains a material legal and operating variable for the company—one that can turn into headline volatility around the stock. [16]
U.S. overhang eased: Meta won the FTC antitrust case over Instagram and WhatsApp
Not all regulatory news is negative.
In the U.S., Meta scored a major legal win on Nov. 18, 2025, when a federal judge ruled against the FTC’s effort to unwind Meta’s Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions, citing competition and changes in the market landscape. Reuters characterized it as a decisive win for Big Tech in the U.S. antitrust crackdown. [17]
Why this still matters heading into 2026
Even though this isn’t new “this week,” it’s still important for forward valuation:
- It reduces the probability of a forced breakup of two of Meta’s most valuable assets.
- It helps anchor the longer-term bull case that Meta can monetize across a unified family of apps.
Wall Street forecasts: price targets suggest upside, but the tone is cautious
Despite the regulatory noise and the “AI spend vs. margins” debate, analysts broadly remain constructive—but not uniformly.
Baird: “Opportunistic buyers,” with a slightly trimmed target
Barron’s reported that Baird analyst Colin Sebastian reiterated an Outperform rating and encouraged investors to be “opportunistic buyers” heading into 2026, while trimming his price target slightly from $820 to $815. [18]
Morgan Stanley: target lowered, but Overweight stays
Recent coverage also notes Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $750 from $820 while maintaining an Overweight rating—an example of how analysts can stay “positive” on the stock while acknowledging higher cost pressure or execution risk. [19]
Broader consensus: wide range of outcomes
A Fintel-written note distributed via Nasdaq cited an average one-year price target around $850.96, with an unusually wide range between roughly $691.85 and $1,172.85, reflecting just how differently analysts view Meta’s AI monetization potential versus the cost of getting there. [20]
What this means for Friday’s trade
For Dec. 26 specifically, price targets aren’t the catalyst—headlines are. But the analyst backdrop matters because it shapes “dip-buying” behavior: if the Street is mostly still positive, negative news can trigger tactical selling—but also quick rebounds if investors treat it as noise rather than thesis-breaking.
The core fundamental debate: Meta’s AI buildout is getting more expensive
Meta’s most important medium-term swing factor remains AI investment.
In its Q3 2025 communications, Meta guided to 2025 capex of $70–72 billion, and it explicitly warned that capex dollar growth could be “notably larger” in 2026, with expenses rising faster as infrastructure and AI talent costs climb. [21]
Reuters’ reporting around the Q3 cycle captured the market’s tension: revenue growth was strong, but the cost ramp spooked investors because it points to margin pressure while the payoff from AI (new revenue streams, better ad efficiency, new products) is still being debated. [22]
The bull case (in plain English)
Investors who stay bullish typically believe:
- Meta can keep improving ad performance via AI,
- scale AI features across billions of users,
- and eventually monetize AI experiences—without permanently damaging margins.
The bear case
Skeptics tend to focus on:
- the risk that AI infrastructure becomes a multi-year capex sink,
- execution risk versus peers,
- and the possibility that regulation limits Meta’s ability to bundle or advantage its AI inside WhatsApp/Instagram/Facebook.
Reality Labs: signs of cost discipline, but the metaverse still looms
Another Meta storyline resurfaced in December: Reality Labs.
Reuters reported that Meta was expected to consider budget cuts of up to 30% for its metaverse initiative as part of 2026 planning, after years of heavy spending in Reality Labs. [23]
For the stock, this matters less as a “growth catalyst” and more as a sentiment stabilizer: if investors believe Meta is shifting from open-ended metaverse burn toward tighter spending discipline while prioritizing AI, the market often treats that as supportive—especially if core ads remain strong.
Earnings radar: what Meta has said, and what the calendar suggests
Meta’s own Q3 2025 report included guidance for Q4 2025 revenue of $56–59 billion, with commentary pointing to strong ad growth but lower year-over-year Reality Labs revenue. It also highlighted ongoing legal and regulatory risk, including EU headwinds that could affect European revenue. [24]
As for the next earnings print: Wall Street Horizon lists Meta’s next earnings date as unconfirmed, but forecasted for Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026 (after market) based on historical reporting patterns. [25]
Why this matters before Dec. 26 open
Even a month out, earnings expectations shape trading:
- If regulatory news hits, traders quickly ask, “Does this change what Meta says in the next earnings call?”
- AI spending is a “guidance story,” and the market may look ahead to any clues about 2026 capex magnitude and ROI narrative.
What to watch before the bell on Dec. 26, 2025
Here’s the practical checklist heading into Friday:
- Europe/WhatsApp AI headlines
- Any statement from AGCM, Meta’s appeal posture, or indication of accelerated EU action. [26]
- Signals around interim measures
- Reuters reporting suggests interim measures are on the table in the EU probe, which would be a near-term market mover if it materializes. [27]
- AI spend narrative
- No new capex number is expected Friday—but any commentary that shifts perceptions about the cost curve can move the stock. [28]
- Post-holiday liquidity
- The Dec. 26 session can see exaggerated moves simply because of lighter participation. [29]
- Key upcoming dates
- Jan. 15, 2026 (policy timing referenced in reporting)
- Late January 2026 earnings window (unconfirmed, but watched) [30]
Bottom line for Meta stock heading into Friday
Meta enters Dec. 26 with a stock price still supported by the idea that its core advertising machine remains powerful and that legal risk in the U.S. has eased—but with Europe reasserting itself as the primary source of near-term headline volatility.
If Friday’s session has a defining theme, it’s likely this: Can Meta advance its AI distribution and monetization plans inside WhatsApp and the broader family of apps without running into hard regulatory limits—while still convincing investors the AI spending surge will pay off?
Those are the questions that will shape not only the open on Dec. 26, but the tone into early 2026.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu, 10. digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu, 14. investor.atmeta.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.barrons.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. investor.atmeta.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. investor.atmeta.com, 25. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.marketwatch.com, 30. www.reuters.com
