U.S. markets reopen for a full trading session on Friday, December 26, 2025, after the Christmas Day closure—setting up a post-holiday tape where headlines can move mega-cap tech faster than usual because liquidity is often thinner. Notably, NYSE and Nasdaq are operating on their normal schedule on Dec. 26, despite the federal-government closure order for that date. [1]
For Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL), the setup into Friday’s open is unusually headline-heavy: a fresh TikTok U.S. joint-venture agreement, ongoing scrutiny of Oracle’s AI data-center spending, and a market still digesting Oracle’s latest earnings guidance and the balance-sheet strain that comes with racing to build capacity for AI demand.
Below is what investors should know before the bell.
Where Oracle stock stands heading into Dec. 26
Oracle ended the Christmas Eve shortened session (Dec. 24) at about $197.49, after a day range roughly $194–$198. [2]
That price level matters because it highlights just how violent Oracle’s 2025 trading range has been: Oracle’s 52-week range has stretched from about $118.86 to $345.72, putting the stock down roughly 43% from its 52-week high even after a rebound from mid-December weakness. [3]
Valuation snapshot also frames expectations. Data aggregators currently peg Oracle’s market cap around the mid-$500 billions, and commonly-cited trailing valuation measures (like trailing P/E) remain elevated versus Oracle’s pre-AI era—one reason “execution” and “cash returns vs. cash burn” have become the market’s main debate. [4]
The big story: Oracle is becoming an “AI infrastructure” bellwether
Oracle’s bull case in late 2025 looks straightforward on the surface:
- Cloud is accelerating, especially infrastructure (OCI).
- Contract backlog is exploding (RPO).
- Oracle is positioning itself as a key partner to AI leaders and hyperscalers.
But the bear case has become just as clear:
- The company is spending aggressively on data centers and equipment.
- Free cash flow has swung deeply negative, and credit markets have noticed.
- Investors want proof that backlog converts into high-quality, profitable revenue fast enough to justify the spending.
That tension is why Oracle’s stock reaction to earnings earlier this month was so dramatic—and why even “non-Oracle” headlines (credit spreads, funding partners, mega-deals in AI compute) are now moving ORCL.
The newest headline catalyst: TikTok’s U.S. joint venture (and why Oracle is central)
One of the most market-relevant Oracle headlines into Friday is TikTok’s newly signed binding agreement to form a U.S.-based entity—often described as TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC—with a consortium that includes Oracle, Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi-backed MGX.
Key points investors are watching:
- Ownership structure: Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX each take 15% (45% combined), while ByteDance retains 19.9% and affiliates of existing ByteDance investors hold the remainder. [5]
- Oracle’s role: Oracle is positioned as the “trusted” partner for U.S. data security—hosting and managing U.S. user data protections and related controls. [6]
- Timing: Reports widely point to a targeted closing date of January 22, 2026. [7]
- Geopolitics/regulatory risk remains: On Dec. 25, China’s commerce ministry publicly urged that any solution comply with Chinese laws and regulations while staying “balanced,” underscoring that approvals and cross-border politics could still affect the outcome. [8]
Why this matters to ORCL shareholders:
If this structure holds, Oracle doesn’t just keep a high-profile customer relationship—it may deepen its role in hosting, security, and governance for one of the world’s most scrutinized consumer platforms. That can be a meaningful narrative counterweight to the “Oracle only wins if OpenAI wins” critique. Analysts quoted in market coverage have described the TikTok structure as a strategic win that reinforces Oracle’s cloud relevance beyond a single AI customer. [9]
The risk: TikTok remains a politically sensitive asset. Even with a JV, regulatory scrutiny could persist, and approvals or implementation details could trigger renewed volatility. [10]
AI capex and “Stargate” remain the core driver—and the core fear
1) Oracle just raised the stakes on spending
Oracle’s latest earnings cycle reignited concerns because the company signaled materially higher spending tied to building out AI cloud capacity—spending that investors worry could outpace near-term returns.
Reuters reporting around Oracle’s latest outlook highlighted that Oracle’s forecast missed key expectations and that the company flagged a sharp rise in capital expenditures tied to AI data centers. [11]
A Reuters Breakingviews column went further, describing a jump in expected spending for the fiscal year ending in May (fiscal 2026) and pointing out the mismatch between operating cash flow and capex in the most recent quarter. [12]
2) The cash-flow math is what the market is trading
Oracle’s own earnings materials and widely circulated transcript excerpts show why investors fixated on cash flow:
- Operating cash flow (Q2) around $2.1B
- Capex (Q2) around $12B
- Free cash flow (Q2) around negative $10B [13]
This isn’t a cosmetic issue. It goes directly to financing needs—and to whether Oracle can keep funding its buildout without a sustained hit to shareholder returns or credit metrics.
3) Contract backlog is massive—but conversion timing is everything
Oracle reported Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) of about $523B, up sharply, and management highlighted new large commitments from major tech players. [14]
The bull case is that this backlog is the clearest signal that Oracle’s AI cloud capacity will be utilized and monetized.
The bear case is that RPO is a promise of future revenue, not current cash—so investors want clarity on when and how profitably those obligations convert, especially given the size of near-term spending required to deliver. [15]
The Michigan data-center funding saga shows the financing risk in real time
Oracle’s U.S. AI infrastructure push has become closely tied to a set of “Stargate”-branded projects associated with OpenAI. A major near-term watch item has been financing and partnership stability for a large Michigan project.
- Reuters reported that Oracle said talks for an equity deal supporting its Michigan data-center project were on track and did not include Blue Owl, after reporting around stalled talks pressured the stock. [16]
- Other reporting framed the episode more bluntly, describing Blue Owl stepping away from the project and noting investor sensitivity given Oracle’s debt and capex trajectory. [17]
Why it matters into Dec. 26: This is a reminder that the next leg of Oracle’s AI story is not just “demand” but “delivery and financing.” Even rumors about equity partners, private credit terms, or lease structures can move ORCL because they affect the perceived cost of growth.
Credit markets are flashing yellow: CDS and bond headlines are now part of the ORCL story
Two credit-market signals have drawn unusual attention for a large software company:
- Reuters reported that the cost of insuring Oracle debt against default surged to its highest in at least five years after results and investor concerns about borrowing to fund AI expansion. [18]
- Reuters also reported earlier (Nov. 14) that Oracle bonds had been under pressure amid investor concerns tied to additional debt needs for AI infrastructure. [19]
Adding to that narrative, the Financial Times reported that major tech groups (including Oracle) have increasingly used special purpose vehicles (SPVs) to finance AI data centers, shifting large amounts of related debt off balance sheets—an approach that can support rapid expansion but can also obscure where risk sits if AI demand softens. [20]
For equity investors, the takeaway is simple: Oracle’s stock is trading partly like an AI infrastructure developer, meaning funding conditions matter more than they used to.
Oracle’s OpenAI linkage: the opportunity is enormous—and so is concentration risk
Oracle’s positioning alongside OpenAI has been a recurring driver of both enthusiasm and skepticism.
Several major data points remain central to that storyline:
- Reuters reported that OpenAI signed a contract to purchase $300B in computing power from Oracle over roughly five years (one of the largest tech contracts on record, as described in coverage). [21]
- Reuters also reported earlier that Oracle planned to spend around $40B on Nvidia chips to power OpenAI’s U.S. data-center buildout in Texas (often referenced as part of a “Stargate” effort). [22]
Even for investors who love the scale of these numbers, the market has shown it will punish ORCL if it believes the timeline for monetization is slipping or if the cost of capacity is outrunning near-term revenue growth.
What Oracle just reported: the key metrics that still set the tone
Oracle’s most recent quarterly update (fiscal Q2 2026, quarter ended Nov. 30) included a set of numbers that bulls and bears interpret very differently:
Strengths often cited by bulls
- Revenue around $16.1B, up year-over-year. [23]
- Total cloud revenue around $8.0B, with cloud infrastructure revenue around $4.1B, both showing strong growth. [24]
- RPO around $523B, signaling huge contracted demand. [25]
Issues bears keep hammering
- Guidance that came in below some Wall Street expectations for the next quarter (including EPS and revenue growth ranges), as reported by Reuters. [26]
- A profit figure flattered by a one-time gain from the sale of Oracle’s stake in Ampere, which Oracle itself noted as a major EPS tailwind. [27]
- The cash-flow/capex mismatch (negative free cash flow in the quarter) that sparked the broader “AI spending fear” trade in the stock. [28]
Wall Street forecasts and price targets: still bullish on demand, split on the path
Street sentiment in late December looks like this: most analysts still believe Oracle is capturing real AI cloud demand, but many have become more cautious on the near-term stock because of financing, margins, and cash flow.
- Reuters reported that multiple brokerages cut price targets after Oracle’s forecast and capex outlook disappointed investors—while some argued the spending was necessary to meet demand. [29]
- Aggregated analyst platforms show wide dispersion in targets, reflecting high uncertainty. For example, TipRanks-listed targets cluster in a wide range with a high-end forecast far above the current price and a low-end forecast meaningfully below it. [30]
- Investor-focused coverage around the TikTok JV also highlighted that some analysts see the deal as supportive for Oracle’s cloud narrative and have reiterated bullish ratings alongside specific price targets. [31]
What to do with this as a reader: treat price targets less as “where the stock will go” and more as a real-time measure of uncertainty. When a stock has a $100+ spread between low and high targets, the market is effectively telling you the outcome depends on execution and financing conditions—not just demand headlines.
Insider selling and founder headlines: small signals, but they can move sentiment in thin trading
Two corporate-governance style items have surfaced in late December:
- CEO stock sale: Filings-based reporting indicates Oracle CEO Clayton M. Magouyrk sold 10,000 shares in mid-December at prices around the low-$190s. By itself, a single sale doesn’t prove a thesis—executives sell for many reasons—but it can influence short-term sentiment when a stock is volatile. [32]
- Larry Ellison financing headline (indirect ORCL relevance): Reuters reported Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison personally guaranteed $40.4B to support a Paramount/Skydance bid involving Warner Bros. Discovery. This is not an Oracle corporate action—but markets sometimes pay attention to anything that could affect a major shareholder’s pledged collateral or potential future selling pressure. [33]
In a normal week, these might be footnotes. In the last week of December, with lower liquidity, they can become “tape” stories.
Dividend watch: an upcoming date that matters for income-focused holders
Oracle’s board declared a $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, with shareholders of record as of January 9, 2026, and a payment date of January 23, 2026, according to Oracle’s investor relations release. [34]
Market dividend calendars broadly list Jan. 9, 2026 as the ex-dividend date as well. [35]
For Dec. 26 specifically, this isn’t the catalyst—but it’s part of the “total return” framing investors use when evaluating whether they’re being compensated enough to hold through volatility.
What to watch at the open on Dec. 26: a practical checklist
Heading into Friday’s session, these are the most actionable watch items for ORCL traders and investors:
- TikTok JV headlines: Any updates on approvals, implementation details, or political reactions (U.S. or China) could move Oracle quickly. [36]
- AI financing chatter: Any new details on funding partners for large data centers (Michigan and beyond) can hit ORCL because financing has become part of the equity story. [37]
- Credit-market tone: If Oracle’s bonds or CDS spreads are discussed in fresh reporting, equity often reacts because it affects perceived flexibility. [38]
- Market mood for AI infrastructure names: Oracle has traded as a proxy for the “AI buildout trade,” meaning broad risk-on/risk-off swings can matter more than usual. [39]
- Thin liquidity: Dec. 26 is a real trading day, but post-holiday conditions can amplify moves. Reuters explicitly confirmed a full session on Dec. 26 even as federal offices close, helping explain why many participants expect “headline sensitivity” on lower volume. [40]
Bottom line for Oracle stock into Friday’s session
Oracle heads into Dec. 26, 2025 with a rare mix of consumer-platform geopolitics (TikTok) and mega-scale enterprise AI infrastructure finance—and both are now tied to the same ticker.
The next durable move in ORCL likely depends on whether Oracle can keep proving three things simultaneously:
- AI cloud demand is real (backlog supports it),
- Oracle can build capacity fast enough to deliver, and
- The company can fund the buildout without permanently damaging cash generation or credit flexibility.
That’s the framework the market will keep using—whether Friday’s post-holiday session is calm or volatile.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. apnews.com, 6. www.theverge.com, 7. apnews.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investors.com, 10. apnews.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.fool.com, 14. investor.oracle.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.ft.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. finance.yahoo.com, 24. finance.yahoo.com, 25. investor.oracle.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. investor.oracle.com, 28. www.fool.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.tipranks.com, 31. www.investors.com, 32. www.stocktitan.net, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. investor.oracle.com, 35. stockanalysis.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.reuters.com
