U.S. markets reopen for a full trading session on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, after the Christmas Day holiday—following an early close on Dec. 24. [1]
For Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), the post-holiday setup is unusually headline-driven: investors are weighing a transformative (and controversial) Warner Bros. acquisition plan, the debt package underpinning it, and the likelihood that regulators stretch the timeline into late 2026.
Below is what to know heading into the bell—based on the latest filings, company statements, and analyst commentary available as of Dec. 25, 2025.
Where NFLX stands heading into Friday’s open
Netflix was around $93.64 in the latest available quote from the last trading session (Dec. 24), after a holiday-shortened market day.
With liquidity typically thinner around late-December sessions, price moves can look outsized—especially for a stock tied to a live M&A situation and potential bidding-war headlines.
It’s also worth remembering that Netflix announced a ten-for-one stock split earlier this fall, which can make per-share price comparisons to earlier in the year misleading unless your chart is split-adjusted. [2]
The story moving Netflix stock: the $82.7B Warner Bros transaction
The biggest catalyst—and the reason NFLX has become one of the market’s most closely watched media trades this month—is Netflix’s definitive agreement to acquire Warner Bros. (including its film/TV studios and HBO/HBO Max) in a cash-and-stock transaction.
Netflix’s investor release pegs the deal at roughly:
- $27.75 per WBD share (with a collar mechanism)
- $23.25 in cash + $4.50 in Netflix shares per WBD share
- ~$72.0B equity value / ~$82.7B enterprise value
- Expected close after the planned separation of “Discovery Global,” now targeted for Q3 2026
- A stated closing window of 12–18 months, subject to regulatory approvals and WBD shareholder approval [3]
Netflix has also said it intends to maintain Warner Bros.’ current operations, including theatrical releases. [4]
Why the deal matters to NFLX investors
This is not a “small tuck-in” acquisition. It changes Netflix’s profile in three big ways:
- Balance sheet and financing risk (more on that below)
- Regulatory risk and timing uncertainty
- Strategic upside if Netflix can monetize Warner’s library, franchises, and HBO brand without overpaying—or without being forced into major concessions
In the investor call transcript, Netflix leadership framed the move as a rare opportunity and emphasized plans to keep Warner’s film and HBO businesses operating, while highlighting HBO Max’s scale (Netflix cited a “roughly 100 million” streaming subscriber base across ~100 markets for HBO Max). [5]
Financing watch: the $59B bridge loan—and the refinancing steps that followed
A key near-term driver for NFLX is not subscriber churn or a content slate. It’s credit markets.
Reuters reports Netflix lined up a $59 billion bridge loan to support the Warner transaction, then refinanced part of it with:
- A $5B revolving credit facility
- Two $10B delayed-draw term loans
- Leaving about $34B of the bridge facility still to be syndicated [6]
A separate industry write-up tied to Bloomberg reporting added color that the revolver would mature in 2030 or three years after the deal closes (whichever comes first), with the delayed-draw term loans due in two and three years. [7]
What investors are really watching here
This is the core NFLX debate into Dec. 26:
- Bulls see Netflix using its scale, cash generation, and global distribution to make Warner’s IP and HBO brand more valuable over time—potentially lowering long-run content risk and adding new monetization levers.
- Bears see higher leverage + integration complexity + regulatory drag, and worry Netflix is paying up at the top of the streaming cycle, with a meaningful chance of a prolonged bidding battle.
The “bidding war” factor: Paramount’s hostile challenge and the board response
Another reason NFLX can gap up or down on any given headline: Paramount Skydance has been pressing a competing offer for Warner Bros. Discovery, and has modified its proposal to address financing concerns.
Business Insider reported Paramount added a $40+ billion personal guarantee from Larry Ellison without raising the headline price, as WBD’s board continued to favor Netflix’s deal structure. [8]
The Financial Times described Paramount’s move as a major hostile challenge to Netflix’s agreement, fueling a high-stakes contest that could reshape the industry. [9]
Crucially, Warner Bros. Discovery’s board has publicly urged shareholders to reject Paramount’s tender offer and reiterated support for the Netflix combination. [10]
Netflix, in turn, issued a statement welcoming that board recommendation and reiterating its view that its merger agreement is superior and more certain. [11]
Translation for Friday’s trade: even if Netflix “wins” the boardroom fight, the stock remains exposed to:
- escalation via revised bids,
- deal-term changes,
- or a longer-than-expected regulatory timeline.
Antitrust and politics: the risk that can’t be modeled neatly
Regulatory scrutiny is not a footnote here—it’s central.
Reuters reports Netflix has argued the deal is necessary to compete with platforms like YouTube, but antitrust experts are skeptical regulators will treat Netflix and YouTube as interchangeable competitors, given different content models and business structures. [12]
That same Reuters report notes the scale of the combined business (citing 428 million combined subscribers) as a likely trigger for U.S. and global review. [13]
A law-firm analysis also flagged the Netflix–Warner transaction as a major test case for U.S. antitrust strategy in media consolidation. [14]
What this means for NFLX holders: even “good news” can be complicated. A regulator could approve the deal but impose conditions that dilute the strategic upside (content licensing, bundling rules, divestitures, etc.), or delay approval long enough that market conditions change materially before closing.
Fundamentals check: what Netflix last reported—and what it guided
While M&A is dominating the tape, Netflix’s underlying business has still been performing strongly on revenue growth—though Q3 profitability got hit by a one-time item.
In its Q3 2025 shareholder letter, Netflix reported:
- Q3 revenue:$11.51B, up 17% year over year (in line with its forecast)
- Operating margin:~28%, below guidance due to a ~$619M expense related to an ongoing dispute with Brazilian tax authorities (Netflix said it did not expect the matter to be material to future results) [15]
Reuters likewise highlighted that the Brazil-related tax charge contributed to a rare quarterly earnings miss, even as revenue held up and Netflix continued pushing ads, gaming, and live programming as growth areas. [16]
What Netflix said about the next earnings catalyst
Netflix has already set the calendar for its next major company-specific moment:
- Q4 2025 results will be posted Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026 at approximately 1:01 p.m. PT
- A live video interview/Q&A is scheduled afterward [17]
Nasdaq’s earnings page also points to Jan. 20, 2026 as the expected earnings date (after the close), aligning with Netflix’s IR release. [18]
Ads and live events: the growth pillars that still matter (and can sway sentiment)
Even in a deal-driven market, investors still care about whether Netflix’s newer initiatives are working—because those are the levers management points to when justifying a larger strategic footprint.
1) Advertising scale: “190 million monthly active viewers”
Netflix says its ad-supported tier has reached 190 million monthly active viewers globally, after shifting from a “users” metric to a “viewers” metric that attempts to capture co-viewing within households. [19]
Netflix’s ad leadership also discussed testing interactive video ads and dynamic ad insertion, with broader rollouts expected in 2026. [20]
2) Live-event proof points: boxing and the NFL on Christmas
Netflix continues to use live programming to reinforce engagement and advertising potential.
- ESPN reported Netflix said Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua drew 33 million viewers globally (average minute audience), and ranked as the platform’s No. 1 program in 45 countries. [21]
- Sports Business Journal added context on how that number compares to prior Netflix boxing events and suggested the U.S. audience could plausibly be in the 10–15 million range based on prior global vs. U.S. splits (Netflix did not release a U.S.-only figure). [22]
- On Dec. 25, 2025, Netflix also carried the NFL Christmas doubleheader. Netflix’s own Tudum site (Netflix’s editorial arm) reported the Cowboys beat the Commanders 30–23 and described the production partnership (CBS Sports produced the games; NFL Media produced studio programming). [23]
- Front Office Sports framed the 2025 Christmas games as a key benchmark for whether holiday NFL on streaming can keep scaling, noting Netflix’s strong streaming records from last year’s Christmas games. [24]
Why this matters for NFLX stock on Dec. 26: investors may look for early signals—social buzz, press commentary, and later viewership disclosures—about whether Netflix can execute reliably on big live moments, since that underpins both ad ambition and premium pricing power.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: upside on paper, but a wider “deal discount”
Wall Street’s NFLX outlook is no longer a simple “streaming growth” story. The deal has split analysts into camps: those focused on long-run strategic value, and those focused on near-term uncertainty and leverage.
Notable recent moves:
- Wolfe Research lowered its price target to $121 from $139 while maintaining an Outperform rating. [25]
- A broader market recap highlighted multiple downgrades tied to perceived deal risk, including Pivotal Research cutting its target to $105, and Huber Research cutting to $92 (double-downgrade), alongside other target reductions. [26]
On the consensus side, one compiled estimate set shows a wide range (roughly $78 to $160), with an average forecast in the low $130s. [27]
Using the latest available NFLX quote near $93.64, that implies:
- A ~$121 target = about 29% upside
- A ~$131 target = about 40% upside
- A ~$138 target = about 48% upside
Those aren’t “predictions”—they’re simply the math implied by published targets against the last quoted price, and they underscore the core question: does the market keep applying a deal-related discount until the regulatory and financing picture clears?
What to watch before the bell on Dec. 26
If you’re tracking NFLX into Friday’s open, the most market-moving developments are likely to come from deal mechanics, not from day-to-day streaming chatter.
Key items to monitor:
- Any SEC filing cadence changes tied to the transaction (registration/proxy work, updated deal exhibits, financing disclosures). The merger agreement itself is already public in SEC archives. [28]
- Financing headlines: additional term sheets, bond plans, syndication progress, or credit-market signals around the remaining bridge amount. [29]
- Regulatory tone in the U.S. and abroad; analysts have already been publicly skeptical of Netflix’s “YouTube rivalry” positioning. [30]
- Any escalation from Paramount (revised terms, higher price, stronger backstops), even with WBD’s board currently recommending Netflix’s agreement. [31]
- Late-December live-event optics (NFL Christmas production reception, and follow-on reporting) as investors evaluate Netflix’s live roadmap into 2026. [32]
- The calendar: Netflix’s next major fundamental checkpoint is Q4 results on Jan. 20, 2026. [33]
Bottom line for Dec. 26: Netflix is trading like a deal stock—because it is
Going into Dec. 26, 2025, Netflix is no longer being priced purely on near-term operating momentum. The market is treating NFLX as a stock with:
- a potentially transformational strategic upside (Warner IP + HBO brand + studio capability),
- but also a higher-risk path involving leverage, integration, and regulatory approval. [34]
That mix can produce sharp moves on incremental headlines—especially in a holiday-thin market session. For investors and traders alike, Friday’s most important question may be simple:
Is there any new information that changes the probability, price, or timing of the Warner deal?
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. ir.netflix.net, 3. ir.netflix.net, 4. ir.netflix.net, 5. s22.q4cdn.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.sfnet.com, 8. www.businessinsider.com, 9. www.ft.com, 10. ir.wbd.com, 11. ir.netflix.net, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.duanemorris.com, 15. static.poder360.com.br, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. ir.netflix.net, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.thewrap.com, 20. www.thewrap.com, 21. www.espn.com, 22. www.sportsbusinessjournal.com, 23. www.netflix.com, 24. frontofficesports.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. www.barchart.com, 27. valueinvesting.io, 28. www.sec.gov, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. ir.wbd.com, 32. www.netflix.com, 33. ir.netflix.net, 34. ir.netflix.net
