After the Christmas Day market holiday, U.S. stocks reopen Friday, December 26, 2025, and investors will be scanning “defensive” names like The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) for clues about consumer demand, pricing power, and margin resilience. The NYSE lists Christmas Day (Dec. 25) as a full-market holiday, and it also notes that Dec. 24, 2025 was an early close (1:00 p.m. ET). Regular trading resumes Friday with the core session at 9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET (and NYSE pre-opening beginning at 6:30 a.m. ET). [1]
Below is what to know heading into Friday’s open—covering the most relevant recent headlines, management guidance, and Wall Street forecast ranges that could shape sentiment in the final trading days of 2025.
Where PG stands heading into Friday’s session
PG was last indicated around $144.49 (based on the most recent available trading update from Dec. 24, 2025).
The bigger point for many investors isn’t the single-day move—it’s that 2025 has been a tougher tape for the stock than many expect from a consumer-staples bellwether. A MarketWatch market recap from Dec. 22 put PG at $142.69 that day and noted the shares were 20.72% below their 52-week high of $179.99 (reached March 10, 2025). [2]
A separate, widely circulated investing commentary going into mid-December also described PG as down more than 13% as of the Dec. 15 close, tying the pullback to consumer pressure and private-label competition concerns. [3]
The biggest near-term narrative: P&G’s CEO handoff on Jan. 1
One of the most important “calendar” items hanging over PG into year-end is leadership—not because the market expects a strategic reset, but because the date is close.
P&G announced in late July that Shailesh Jejurikar (then Chief Operating Officer) would succeed Jon Moeller as President and CEO effective January 1, 2026, while Moeller becomes Executive Chairman. [4]
Reuters characterized the move as a planned and orderly transition, consistent with P&G’s tradition of promoting from within, and noted the company said there were no health concerns driving the change. [5]
Why it matters before Friday’s open: CEO changes can trigger near-term repositioning (especially around year-end), even when investors view the transition as continuity rather than disruption. With the handoff arriving in just days, some investors may use late-December liquidity to adjust exposure—particularly if they’re balancing “defensive staples” against rate, inflation, and consumer-spending views for 2026. [6]
Confirmed next catalyst: Q2 FY 2025/26 earnings on Jan. 22, 2026
P&G has also already put a firm date on its next major event.
In a company announcement published Dec. 19, P&G said it will webcast its second-quarter FY 2025/26 earnings discussion on January 22, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. [7]
That matters because the call time is before the U.S. cash equity open, which often concentrates volatility into the premarket and the opening auction for large-cap names.
What investors typically focus on for P&G earnings:
- Organic sales versus volume trends (whether growth is mostly “price/mix” or if units are stabilizing)
- Gross margin direction (productivity savings vs. commodities/tariffs and reinvestment)
- Category performance by segment (Beauty, Grooming, Health Care, Fabric & Home Care, Baby/Feminine/Family Care)
- Any updates to full-year guidance as tariffs and consumer behavior evolve [8]
The last “official read” on fundamentals: Q1 FY 2026 results and full-year guidance
The most recent detailed results package investors have been working from is P&G’s fiscal Q1 2026 release (reported Oct. 24, 2025).
What P&G reported for fiscal Q1 2026
P&G said Q1 FY 2026 net sales were $22.4 billion (+3%), with organic sales up 2%. The company reported core EPS of $1.99 (+3%) and diluted EPS of $1.95 (+21%) (the diluted comparison benefited from higher prior-year non-core restructuring charges). [9]
P&G also spelled out what drove organic sales: +1% pricing and +1% mix, with organic volume neutral overall in the quarter. [10]
Margin pressures and what offset them
In the same release, P&G described gross margin pressure and the moving parts behind it: productivity and pricing helped, but they were more than offset by unfavorable mix, product reinvestment, and higher costs from tariffs and commodities. [11]
Full-year FY 2026 guidance (maintained)
P&G maintained its FY 2026 outlook in that Q1 release:
- All-in sales growth:+1% to +5%
- Organic sales growth:in-line to +4%
- Core EPS:in-line to +4%, which it translated to $6.83 to $7.09 (midpoint $6.96) [12]
Tariffs, commodities, FX: the quantified headwinds/tailwinds
In October, P&G explicitly sized several items in after-tax terms for FY 2026:
- Commodity cost headwind: about $100 million after tax
- Tariff cost increase: about $400 million after tax
- FX tailwind: about $300 million after tax
- It said these and other factors collectively equate to about a $0.19 per-share headwind for FY 2026. [13]
Tariffs and pricing: the storyline that keeps coming back
If you’re trying to understand why PG can trade like a “safe” stock but still have meaningful drawdowns, tariffs and pricing strategy are a big piece of the 2025–2026 narrative.
Back in July, Reuters reported P&G expected roughly a $1 billion before-tax cost hit from tariffs for fiscal 2026 and said the company planned to raise prices on about a quarter of its U.S. products, with the CFO describing increasingly selective consumer behavior (larger pack sizes, deal-seeking, and dollar-store traffic). [14]
The Associated Press similarly reported P&G’s view that shoppers were becoming more cautious and that price increases would be paired with product improvements—an approach management argued can still “resonate” with customers. [15]
By late October, Reuters reported P&G had reduced its annual tariff cost estimate to about $400 million after tax, citing changes such as Canada lifting retaliatory duties (while also noting broader trade uncertainty can return quickly). [16]
How to read this before Friday’s open: markets tend to reward clarity. When tariff impacts are shrinking, that can support multiples; when tariff policy looks unstable, investors often demand a bigger margin-of-safety—even for staples.
Dividend and buybacks: a key reason PG remains “core” in many portfolios
Even during weaker price action, PG’s shareholder-return profile is one reason it stays in the conversation.
What P&G returned recently
In its Q1 FY 2026 release, P&G said it returned $3.8 billion to shareowners in the quarter via $2.55 billion in dividends and $1.25 billion in share repurchases. [17]
What P&G guided for FY 2026 cash returns
P&G said it continues to expect to pay around $10 billion in dividends and repurchase about $5 billion of common shares in FY 2026 (roughly $15 billion total). [18]
The latest declared dividend amount
P&G’s investor relations dividend history shows the most recent quarterly dividend at $1.0568 per share, with an ex-dividend date of Oct. 24, 2025 and a pay date of Nov. 17, 2025. [19]
The same page highlights P&G’s long payout history, stating 68 consecutive years of dividend increases and 134 consecutive years of dividend payments. [20]
Other late-2025 headlines investors may be pricing in
Not every headline moves a mega-cap, but several recent items can still affect risk perception.
Prague logistics and production facility lease (long-dated, operational)
On Dec. 19, a Business Wire release announced that logistics real-estate group CTP signed a lease with P&G for a new 37,000 sqm logistics and production facility at CTPark Prague North. Construction was said to be underway, with handover targeted for September 2026 and operations expected to begin in 2027. The release also framed the project (described as “Artemis”) as incorporating AI and digital tools and targeting high environmental standards (including a BREEAM Outstanding goal). [21]
Market impact: likely minimal near-term, but it reinforces P&G’s multi-year focus on supply-chain capability and automation—important when investors debate long-run productivity and service levels.
Texas toothpaste marketing scrutiny (reputational/regulatory risk watch)
On Dec. 23, Bloomberg Law reported P&G would modify Crest toothpaste advertising in Texas by Jan. 1 to depict age-appropriate usage (aligning visuals with label instructions for children under 6), describing it as part of a broader Texas AG investigation into marketing practices around fluoride use. [22]
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s office previously said it sent civil investigative demands to Colgate-Palmolive and a P&G manufacturing unit over alleged marketing practices, citing guidance such as “smear” and “pea-sized” amounts for children. [23]
Market impact: typically not material to earnings on its own, but it’s the kind of headline that can influence ESG/regulatory risk screens and headline sensitivity.
Wall Street forecast snapshot: where targets cluster and what’s implied
Analyst targets are not guarantees—but they’re a useful way to understand what assumptions the Street is baking in.
- Investing.com’s consensus page shows an average 12-month price target around $168.95, with a low estimate near $148 and a high near $186, and it summarizes the consensus stance as “Buy” (with buys outweighing holds). [24]
- The same page lists several recent rating actions in mid-December, including a Jefferies move to Buy with a $179 target (Dec. 17) and a JPMorgan Hold with a $157 target (Dec. 18), alongside other targets clustered in the $150s–$170s. [25]
- A MarketWatch analyst-estimates snapshot lists an average target price around $169.95 and an average recommendation described as Overweight. [26]
How to interpret that range into Friday: If PG is trading in the mid-$140s, a ~$169–$171 “average target” implies the Street expects (1) stabilized volumes, (2) manageable tariff pass-through and/or easing input pressures, and (3) continued cash-return support without a major demand stumble.
What to watch specifically in the Dec. 26 session
Holiday-adjacent trading can be quirky—fewer participants, wider spreads, and sharper moves on smaller headlines—so it helps to keep the checklist tight:
- Any incremental CEO-transition commentary as the Jan. 1 handoff approaches (investors tend to look for continuity signals around capital allocation and portfolio focus). [27]
- Positioning into the Jan. 22 earnings event, which is now formally scheduled and could start to pull forward Q2 expectation-setting (especially around organic volume and margins). [28]
- Tariff and pricing headlines, because management has already tied FY 2026 guidance to tariff-driven cost pressure—though the estimated magnitude has moved meaningfully over time. [29]
- Legal/regulatory headline risk (Crest marketing adjustments are a reminder that consumer-products companies can get pulled into political and regulatory crosscurrents). [30]
Bottom line for investors before Friday’s open
PG is heading into the Dec. 26 reopening with a lot of the “big” fundamentals already on the table: maintained FY 2026 guidance, quantified tariff/commodity headwinds (and FX tailwinds), and a clearly communicated capital-return plan—plus a confirmed Jan. 22 earnings webcast that will be the next major volatility event. [31]
The two most important swing factors for sentiment into early 2026 are (1) whether P&G can keep defending margins as pricing normalizes and consumers remain value-seeking, and (2) whether tariff-related uncertainty stays contained—or re-accelerates and forces another round of pricing and mix adjustments. [32]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. us.pg.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. us.pg.com, 7. us.pg.com, 8. www.pginvestor.com, 9. www.pginvestor.com, 10. www.pginvestor.com, 11. www.pginvestor.com, 12. www.pginvestor.com, 13. www.pginvestor.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. apnews.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.pginvestor.com, 18. www.pginvestor.com, 19. www.pginvestor.com, 20. www.pginvestor.com, 21. www.businesswire.com, 22. news.bloomberglaw.com, 23. www.texasattorneygeneral.gov, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. us.pg.com, 28. us.pg.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. news.bloomberglaw.com, 31. www.pginvestor.com, 32. www.reuters.com
