Updated: Dec. 25, 2025 (ahead of Friday’s U.S. market open)
U.S. equities return to a full trading session on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, following the Christmas Day closure and a scheduled early close on Wednesday, Dec. 24. [1]
For Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), the setup into that post-holiday open is unusually busy: the stock is hovering just below recent 2025 highs after a strong year, Wall Street has turned more constructive on Cisco’s AI-networking momentum, and a high-severity cybersecurity issue tied to Cisco email security appliances is generating headlines that investors can’t ignore. [2]
Below is what matters most for CSCO heading into the bell.
Where Cisco stock stands heading into Dec. 26
Cisco last traded on Wednesday, Dec. 24 (the shortened Christmas Eve session), closing at $78.02. [3]
A key technical and psychological marker for traders has been the $80 area. Earlier in December, Cisco notched a $80.25 close, described as its highest close since 2000-era levels—an attention-getting milestone that helped pull more momentum-focused investors back into the name. [4]
Why this matters now: The session after a holiday can bring thin liquidity and exaggerated moves—especially when a widely owned mega-cap tech name has both upbeat AI narratives and active cybersecurity headlines circulating. (Holiday schedules also matter this week: NYSE notes the early close on Dec. 24, and major exchanges have confirmed normal trading on Dec. 26.) [5]
The core bull case: Cisco’s Q1 beat, raised outlook, and accelerating AI-networking demand
Cisco’s most important “fresh” fundamental catalyst remains its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings update (reported Nov. 12, 2025, for the quarter ended Oct. 25, 2025). In that release, Cisco reported:
- Revenue of $14.9 billion (up 8% year over year)
- GAAP EPS of $0.72 and Non-GAAP EPS of $1.00
- Product orders up 13% year over year
- AI infrastructure orders from hyperscaler customers totaling $1.3 billion (a notable acceleration) [6]
Cisco also guided higher for both the next quarter and the full fiscal year:
- Q2 FY2026 revenue:$15.0B to $15.2B
- Q2 FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS:$1.01 to $1.03
- FY2026 revenue:$60.2B to $61.0B
- FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS:$4.08 to $4.14 [7]
Cisco explicitly noted that its margin and EPS guidance includes estimated tariff impacts based on current trade policy, a reminder that macro and policy variables are still part of the equation even when the AI narrative is strong. [8]
Reuters coverage of that same earnings moment reinforced the market’s takeaway: Cisco is leaning into AI-driven data-center and campus networking upgrades, and management pointed to substantial AI demand signals and a growing pipeline. [9]
What AI means for Cisco in 2025–2026: more than a buzzword, but still something to verify quarter by quarter
Investors have historically treated Cisco as a mature networking incumbent. What’s changing is that AI workloads are forcing network rebuilds—inside hyperscale data centers, within enterprise campuses, and increasingly at the “edge.”
Two datapoints are driving the renewed attention:
- Hyperscaler AI order momentum is real.
Cisco disclosed $1.3B in hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders in Q1 FY2026. [10] - Management is attaching bigger forward numbers to AI.
On the post-earnings call, CEO Chuck Robbins indicated Cisco expects $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY2026, and Reuters reported that Cisco had secured more than $2 billion in AI orders in FY2025 (mostly hyperscalers). [11]
Cisco is also pushing AI compute closer to where data is produced. In early November, Reuters reported Cisco launched “Cisco Unified Edge,” a localized computing platform aimed at running AI workloads in places like retail sites, factory floors, and healthcare locations, with broader availability planned by the end of 2025. [12]
Investor lens for Dec. 26: watch whether new notes or headlines add evidence that AI networking demand is broadening beyond hyperscalers into enterprise and public sector refresh cycles—because that’s the difference between a one-year “AI trade” and a multi-year re-rating.
Dividend and buybacks: Cisco’s “paid-to-wait” support remains meaningful
Even with the AI storyline getting the spotlight, Cisco’s shareholder return engine still matters—especially in a market where investors are increasingly selective about cash flow quality.
Cisco declared a $0.41 quarterly dividend, payable Jan. 21, 2026, to shareholders of record as of Jan. 2, 2026. [13]
Market tracking sources also put Cisco’s annualized dividend at $1.64 per share (reflecting $0.41 quarterly) with an indicated yield around ~2.1%, and list Jan. 2, 2026 as the next ex-dividend date. [14]
On repurchases and capital return, Cisco reported that in Q1 FY2026 it returned $3.6 billion via dividends and buybacks, including roughly 29 million shares repurchased at an average price of $68.28, and it stated $12.2 billion remained authorized for repurchases with no termination date. [15]
Why traders care into the open: in thin post-holiday sessions, large buyback programs and dividend “support” narratives can dampen downside volatility—unless a new headline changes the risk profile.
Wall Street forecasts and price targets: bullish drift, wide dispersion
The key theme in late 2025 analyst commentary is that Cisco’s AI-networking exposure has become easier to underwrite—especially with raised guidance and improved order trends.
Recent notable moves and targets include:
- Morgan Stanley: maintained Overweight and raised its price target to $91 (from $82), according to aggregated reporting. [16]
- UBS: upgraded Cisco to Buy (from Neutral) and argued Cisco could beat its FY2026 revenue guidance on AI demand and data-center Ethernet upgrades. [17]
- Melius: raised a price target to $100 (from $84), cited in analyst-rating coverage. [18]
- Rosenblatt: also referenced in analyst-rating roundups with a $100 target and a Buy stance. [19]
On “consensus” targets, different data providers cluster in a similar neighborhood—generally mid-$80s to high-$80s—but not perfectly:
- MarketBeat shows an average target around $84.70 (with a high target of $100 and low of $63). [20]
- Investing.com’s consensus snapshot shows an average around $85.43, with highs around $100 and lows around $67. [21]
- MarketWatch snippets reference an average target of $87.00 based on 26 ratings. [22]
How to interpret this before the bell: with CSCO around $78, many “base case” targets imply single-digit to low-double-digit upside—while the $100 targets represent a more aggressive view that Cisco can sustain premium AI networking demand and keep margins resilient through refresh cycles and policy risks.
The headline risk investors can’t ignore: active exploitation of CVE-2025-20393
Cisco’s name is also in the news for a very different reason: an active campaign targeting some customers using Cisco email security appliances.
Cisco’s security advisory (updated Dec. 17, 2025) states that on Dec. 10 Cisco became aware of a cyberattack campaign targeting a limited subset of appliances running Cisco AsyncOS for Cisco Secure Email Gateway and Cisco Secure Email and Web Manager, specifically when the Spam Quarantine feature is enabled and exposed to the internet. [23]
Cisco says the attack allows threat actors to execute arbitrary commands with root privileges on the underlying operating system, and notes evidence of a persistence mechanism placed on compromised appliances. [24]
Two additional points investors should understand:
- The vulnerability is tracked as CVE-2025-20393 with a CVSS 10.0 (Critical) score. [25]
- NIST’s NVD entry indicates the CVE was added to CISA’s Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) Catalog, with a listed due date of Dec. 24, 2025 for required action/mitigation guidance. [26]
Cisco also notes that Cisco Secure Email Cloud is not affected (a helpful containment detail) and that it is not aware of exploitation against Cisco Secure Web in connection with this campaign. [27]
Meanwhile, multiple security outlets and mainstream tech press have described the activity as linked to China-nexus actors and reported that potentially hundreds of customers may be exposed—framing that can keep the headline cycle active even if the direct financial impact is limited. [28]
Market implication into Dec. 26: Security headlines can be a short-term volatility driver, particularly if (a) new indicators of compromise broaden perceived scope, (b) an official patch or mitigation update changes urgency, or (c) customers and regulators intensify scrutiny. The flip side is that high-profile incidents can also reinforce demand for security modernization—something Cisco has been trying to position itself to capture.
Other “current” Cisco headlines worth knowing
If you’re scanning for incremental news flow that could nudge sentiment pre-market, these are notable:
- Product expansion tied to AI at the edge: Cisco’s “Unified Edge” initiative is positioned to help enterprises run AI workloads outside traditional data centers. [29]
- M&A/portfolio building around Splunk ecosystem: Cisco’s acquisitions list notes Aura Asset Intelligence (Discovered Intelligence) as an August 25, 2025 addition, described as an asset and risk intelligence solution built as a Splunk app. [30]
What to watch before the bell on Dec. 26: a practical checklist
For investors preparing for the open, here are the highest-signal items to monitor:
- Premarket CSCO price + volume
Post-holiday sessions can move quickly on light liquidity; confirm whether any move is broad-based or just thin trading. - Cybersecurity updates on CVE-2025-20393
Look for any Cisco advisory revisions, third-party incident reporting, or new mitigation guidance. Cisco has stated there are no workarounds identified that directly mitigate the risk, and it has urged customers to follow its recommendations. [31] - AI demand datapoints (hyperscalers + enterprise refresh)
Cisco has emphasized AI-driven momentum—hyperscaler AI orders, a campus refresh cycle, and FY2026 guidance. Any incremental customer wins, capex headlines, or channel checks can influence the narrative. [32] - Analyst notes and year-end positioning
Recent target hikes and upgrades matter most when they contain new evidence (orders, margins, mix shift), not just price-chasing. [33] - Dividend calendar awareness
If you’re dividend-focused, the next key date on many calendars is Jan. 2, 2026 (record date per Cisco; commonly tracked as the next ex-div window). [34]
Bottom line
Cisco enters the Dec. 26 open with momentum from a raised FY2026 outlook, accelerating AI-related networking demand, and a capital return profile that still appeals to “quality + income” investors—yet it also faces near-term headline sensitivity from an actively exploited, critical email-security vulnerability that’s keeping Cisco in the cybersecurity news cycle. [35]
Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.nyse.com, 6. investor.cisco.com, 7. investor.cisco.com, 8. investor.cisco.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. investor.cisco.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. investor.cisco.com, 14. stockanalysis.com, 15. investor.cisco.com, 16. www.wsj.com, 17. www.investors.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.marketscreener.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.marketwatch.com, 23. www.cisco.com, 24. www.cisco.com, 25. www.cisco.com, 26. nvd.nist.gov, 27. www.cisco.com, 28. techcrunch.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.cisco.com, 31. www.cisco.com, 32. investor.cisco.com, 33. www.wsj.com, 34. investor.cisco.com, 35. investor.cisco.com
