U.S. markets reopen for a full session on Friday, December 26, 2025, after the Christmas Day closure and a 1:00 p.m. ET early close on December 24. [1]
Heading into that post-holiday open, Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) is firmly in the spotlight—not because of a single headline, but because the company has become one of the market’s clearest “AI infrastructure” beneficiaries as demand for high-performance memory tightens global supply.
As of the most recent trading session before Christmas, MU last traded around $286.68 (Dec. 24), up roughly 3.8% on the day, with an intraday range of $276.00–$289.17.
Below is what investors and traders should know before the opening bell—including the latest earnings and guidance, the AI memory thesis, pricing trends, capex and supply constraints, and where analyst forecasts are clustering after Micron’s latest update.
1) The setup: markets reopen, but Micron’s story is already moving the tape
The December 26 session often sees lighter liquidity and sharper moves—especially for high-momentum megacap and AI-adjacent names—because many institutional desks are partially staffed. That matters for Micron because MU has been trading as a “macro + AI + cycle” hybrid: it can move on broad risk sentiment, but it can also move on very memory-specific signals (DRAM/NAND pricing, HBM allocation news, hyperscaler capex chatter).
Also important: regular U.S. equity trading runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with pre-opening activity beginning earlier. [2]
2) The big catalyst: Micron’s fiscal Q1 2026 beat, and guidance that reset expectations
Micron’s latest earnings package is the central “why now” for MU stock.
What Micron reported (Fiscal Q1 2026)
In its Dec. 17, 2025 results release, Micron reported:
- Revenue:$13.643B
- Non-GAAP gross margin:56.8%
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS:$4.78 (GAAP EPS: $4.60) [3]
Micron also disclosed $4.5B in net capex investments during the quarter and $3.9B in adjusted free cash flow, ending with $12.0B in cash, marketable investments, and restricted cash. [4]
The forward guide that grabbed Wall Street (Fiscal Q2 2026 outlook)
For the February quarter (Micron fiscal Q2 2026), the company guided to:
- Revenue:$18.70B ± $0.40B
- Non-GAAP gross margin:68.0% ± 1.0%
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS:$8.42 ± $0.20 [5]
That outlook wasn’t just “better than expected”—it was a reset. Reuters highlighted that Micron’s $8.42 adjusted EPS guide was nearly double the LSEG analyst estimate cited in its report ($4.78), and revenue guidance ($18.7B ± $0.4B) was far above the LSEG-compiled consensus ($14.20B). [6]
Why this matters for Dec. 26: With earnings now out, MU’s next leg is less about “will they beat?” and more about how sustainable the pricing and supply squeeze is—and whether the market believes Micron can hold AI/HBM strength without triggering the classic memory-cycle whiplash.
3) The AI memory thesis: HBM supply is spoken for—and Micron says the market got bigger, faster
Micron’s most important positioning isn’t “DRAM maker” anymore in the way the market used to think about it. It’s increasingly about High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)—the stacked memory that’s become essential in modern AI accelerators.
Micron says its 2026 HBM supply is already contracted
In its fiscal Q1 2026 slide deck, Micron stated it has completed agreements on price and volume for its entire calendar 2026 HBM supply, including its HBM4 product. [7]
That’s a crucial detail for investors: it suggests visibility on volumes and pricing, not just demand “interest.”
Micron’s HBM market forecast: ~40% CAGR to ~$100B by 2028
Micron also forecast an HBM total addressable market (TAM) growing at roughly 40% CAGR through calendar 2028, from about $35B in 2025 to around $100B in 2028, and noted that this $100B milestone is arriving earlier than in its prior outlook. [8]
HBM supply is tight—and Micron is explicit about allocation limits
Reuters reported Micron’s CEO said he expects memory markets to remain tight past 2026, and that in the medium term Micron expects to meet only half to two-thirds of demand from several key customers. [9]
That “can’t fully supply” dynamic is part of what markets tend to reward: tight supply often supports pricing power and margins, especially when customers sign longer agreements to lock in supply.
4) Pricing is the engine: DRAM and NAND are in a squeeze (and the ripple hits everything)
Micron’s results and guide are happening alongside a broader memory-price shock that’s spilling into consumer and enterprise hardware.
TrendForce: shortages are pushing contract and spot prices higher
A TrendForce DRAM Market Bulletin dated Dec. 24, 2025 described expanding DRAM supply shortages driving robust price hikes in both contract and spot markets, with further upside potential into Q1. [10]
UBS view (as reported by Finviz): pricing may stay strong into early 2026
A UBS note summarized by Finviz described expectations for:
- DDR contract pricing up an estimated 35% QoQ for Q4 2025 (higher than earlier estimates)
- NAND pricing up about 20% QoQ
- And continued strength into Q1 2026 with additional pricing increases in both categories [11]
Reuters: memory inflation is hitting consoles and PCs—and could worsen
Reuters reported that the AI-driven memory crunch is pressuring industries like videogame consoles, citing Counterpoint Research estimates that memory prices could rise 30% in the final three months of 2025 and potentially another 20% early in 2026. [12]
Why this matters for MU stock: When DRAM/NAND prices rise faster than unit volumes, memory makers can see sharp margin expansion—exactly what Micron’s Q2 guide implies. But the same trend can also create demand destruction if device makers reduce specs, delay launches, or raise end-product prices too aggressively.
5) Capex is accelerating: Micron is spending more, but supply relief isn’t immediate
In memory, “tight supply” can flip into oversupply if everyone builds at once. Investors therefore watch capex as closely as earnings.
Micron lifts FY2026 capex plan to ~$20B
Micron’s slide deck says it plans to increase fiscal 2026 capex to approximately $20B (up from the prior ~$18B estimate), primarily to support HBM supply capability and its 1-gamma DRAM ramp. [13]
Reuters also reported Micron’s plan to increase its 2026 capex to $20B, noting management’s emphasis on tight supply and booming AI data-center demand. [14]
Expansion timelines: meaningful new supply can take years
Micron’s deck also outlined longer-dated supply efforts, including:
- Pulling in the first Idaho fab timeline with first wafer output expected mid-calendar 2027
- Planned New York groundbreaking early calendar 2026, with supply expected 2030 and beyond
- A Singapore HBM advanced packaging facility expected to contribute meaningfully in calendar 2027 [15]
Investor takeaway: The market is likely to treat “tight supply” as durable into 2026 because a lot of incremental capacity is not quick to arrive—even with aggressive spending.
6) Strategic pivot: Micron is exiting Crucial consumer products to prioritize enterprise/AI
One of the most notable corporate moves this month: Micron is stepping away from a consumer staple.
On Dec. 3, 2025, Micron announced it will exit the Crucial consumer business, continuing Crucial consumer shipments through the consumer channel until the end of fiscal Q2 (February 2026), while keeping warranty support in place. [16]
Reuters framed the move as Micron doubling down on advanced AI data-center memory amid a global supply shortage, and noted that analysts viewed the consumer unit as a relatively small driver of overall results. [17]
Why this matters for the stock: This is a signal that Micron is prioritizing the highest-margin, tightest-supply segments (HBM, data center DRAM/NAND) rather than chasing consumer channel volume. That can support margins—but it also underscores just how constrained supply has become.
7) Analyst forecasts: targets moved up sharply, but dispersion remains wide
After Micron’s guide, analyst targets became a headline of their own.
- Benzinga’s analyst ratings page shows a consensus price target around $288, with the highest target at $500 (attributed there to Rosenblatt, dated Dec. 18, 2025) and a low of $150 (Raymond James, June 26, 2025). [18]
- MarketBeat summarized a wave of target increases in mid-December, citing moves such as $335 (Wells Fargo), $350 (Cantor Fitzgerald, KeyCorp), and $310 (Raymond James), while also reporting an average price target near the high $200s on its dataset. [19]
How to interpret this: The spread reflects a classic debate:
- Bulls are underwriting a longer “memory supercycle” tied to AI infrastructure buildouts and multiyear contracts.
- Skeptics worry that memory remains cyclical—and that aggressive capex plus eventual supply normalization could compress margins later.
8) What could move MU stock specifically on Dec. 26
With earnings out and the holiday lull ending, here are the practical catalysts that can still move Micron quickly:
Memory pricing signals
- Any new commentary on contract pricing, spot prices, or buyer behavior (device makers downgrading specs, delaying launches, or paying up) can move MU because pricing is currently the profit driver. [20]
AI data-center demand tone
- Micron’s own deck emphasizes an “extraordinary, multiyear data center buildout,” and Reuters highlighted the supply allocation problem (only meeting a portion of demand for some key customers). If AI capex sentiment shifts—up or down—MU typically reacts. [21]
Capex discipline vs. execution risk
- The market will watch whether Micron’s higher capex (now ~$20B for FY2026) is seen as disciplined investment to meet contracted HBM demand—or as the start of a spending wave that historically precedes oversupply. [22]
Consumer-device demand destruction risk
- Reuters’ reporting on PC and console pressures illustrates the “other side” of high memory prices: the risk that price increases ultimately reduce unit demand, especially in consumer categories. [23]
Positioning and volatility in a thin session
- Post-holiday trading can amplify moves. If MU opens strong, it can attract momentum flows; if it opens weak, profit-taking can be sharper—especially after a rapid re-rating driven by guidance.
9) Key fundamentals snapshot (what Micron is telling investors right now)
If you read only one summary before the bell, it’s this:
- Micron just delivered fiscal Q1 2026 revenue of $13.643B and guided fiscal Q2 2026 to $18.7B ± $0.4B, alongside non-GAAP EPS of $8.42 ± $0.20 and non-GAAP gross margin near 68%. [24]
- The company says it has priced and allocated its entire calendar 2026 HBM supply, and it expects HBM market growth to accelerate toward ~$100B by 2028. [25]
- Management and industry researchers describe a market where supply is not catching up quickly, pushing pricing higher across DRAM and NAND and forcing device makers to adapt. [26]
- Micron is responding with higher capex (~$20B FY2026) and longer-term expansion plans—but much of that capacity won’t materially impact supply until 2027 and beyond. [27]
- Micron is also strategically narrowing focus, including exiting the Crucial consumer channel business by early 2026. [28]
Bottom line for the Dec. 26 open
Micron stock is entering the December 26 session with three dominant forces in play:
- A massive guidance-driven re-rating (investors recalibrating what earnings power looks like in 2026), [29]
- A supply-driven pricing regime that is still tightening rather than easing, [30]
- A capex and execution phase that can extend the cycle—but also introduces risk if timelines slip or the cycle turns faster than expected. [31]
For readers of Google News and Discover, the near-term question isn’t whether Micron is “in AI.” It is. The real question is whether the AI memory shortage and pricing power persist long enough for Micron’s expanded capacity plan to convert into sustained earnings power—without the industry overshooting into the next downcycle.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. investors.micron.com, 4. investors.micron.com, 5. investors.micron.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. investors.micron.com, 8. investors.micron.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.trendforce.com, 11. finviz.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. investors.micron.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. investors.micron.com, 16. investors.micron.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.benzinga.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.trendforce.com, 21. investors.micron.com, 22. investors.micron.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. investors.micron.com, 25. investors.micron.com, 26. www.trendforce.com, 27. investors.micron.com, 28. investors.micron.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.trendforce.com, 31. investors.micron.com
