U.S. markets reopen on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, after being closed for Christmas Day (Dec. 25)—and for a high-beta, headline-sensitive name like AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP), that “back-from-holiday” session can amplify volatility. [1]
AppLovin enters the Dec. 26 open with a powerful tailwind: strong recent financial performance, a growing buyback program, and a wave of bullish analyst commentary tied to its AI-driven ad platform expansion. But there’s also a live overhang: regulatory scrutiny related to reported SEC interest in its data-collection practices, on top of a 2025 history that included short-seller allegations and sharp drawdowns. [2]
Below is what investors and readers should know before the opening bell.
Will the stock market be open on Dec. 26, 2025?
Yes. The NYSE holiday calendar shows Christmas Day (Dec. 25, 2025) as a market holiday, while Dec. 24, 2025 is listed as an early close (1:00 p.m. ET)—meaning the next regular equity session is Dec. 26. [3]
There has been confusion this year because of federal government closure announcements affecting some executive departments on Dec. 24 and Dec. 26; industry guidance has emphasized that this does not automatically change market operations (notably in fixed income). [4]
Why this matters for APP: post-holiday sessions can see thinner liquidity early in the day, and AppLovin’s higher volatility can magnify moves—up or down—on any incremental headline.
Where AppLovin stock stands heading into the Dec. 26 open
As of the latest available trading session (the shortened Dec. 24 session), APP was around $727.50.
Key positioning metrics investors often watch into a post-holiday open:
- Near record territory: the widely reported 52-week range is roughly $200.50 to $745.61, putting APP within striking distance of its high. [5]
- Mega-cap scale (now): market cap estimates cluster around the mid-$240B range. [6]
- High volatility profile: beta readings around ~2.5 underscore why APP can swing more than the broader market. [7]
- Valuation is elevated: trailing P/E figures shown by market data providers are high (commonly cited in the 80s range), a sign investors are paying up for growth—and that expectations are not low. [8]
Translation: Into Dec. 26, APP is priced like a “market leader”—which can be great in a risk-on tape, but it also means bad news can be punished quickly, especially when liquidity is patchy.
The most important fundamental anchor: AppLovin’s Q3 results and Q4 outlook
AppLovin’s most recent earnings report (for Q3 2025, released Nov. 5, 2025) is the backbone behind the bullish narrative going into year-end.
What AppLovin reported for Q3 2025
From the company’s earnings release:
- Revenue:$1.405B (up 68% YoY) [9]
- Net income:$836M (up 92% YoY) [10]
- Adjusted EBITDA:$1.158B (up 79% YoY) [11]
- Cash generation:$1.05B net cash from operating activities and $1.05B free cash flow in the quarter [12]
Those are unusually large profitability and cash-flow numbers relative to revenue—one reason bulls describe AppLovin as a “high-margin AI ad platform,” not just another adtech intermediary.
Buybacks: a major “support pillar” bulls point to
AppLovin said it repurchased/withheld 1.3M shares for $571M in Q3 2025 and that its board expanded repurchase authorization—leaving $3.3B remaining as of the end of October. [13]
Buybacks can matter disproportionately for high-momentum names because they can:
- provide incremental demand during market pullbacks, and
- reinforce the “management confidence” narrative.
AppLovin’s Q4 2025 guidance
AppLovin guided for Q4 2025:
- Revenue:$1.57B to $1.60B
- Adjusted EBITDA:$1.29B to $1.32B
- Adjusted EBITDA margin:~82% to 83% [14]
If the company lands near the top end of those ranges, investors will likely view it as confirmation that AppLovin’s growth and margin structure remains intact into year-end—one of the core questions the market will keep asking in 2026.
What’s driving bullish forecasts: Axon, self-serve scaling, and the e-commerce push
The “why now?” thesis for AppLovin in late 2025 centers on expanding beyond its historical gaming advertiser base, and doing it through a more scalable interface.
Axon rebrand and the Ads Manager rollout
AppLovin has been repositioning its customer-facing platform under the Axon brand and rolling out a more self-serve Ads Manager approach—initially described as invite-only/referral-based—aimed at scaling onboarding for non-gaming advertisers. [15]
In plain terms, the bet is that:
- AppLovin’s AI ad engine can translate from gaming UA into broader performance advertising, and
- a self-serve workflow reduces friction, letting revenue grow faster without ballooning headcount.
Analysts have explicitly tied price-target hikes to this “scaling moment”
Barron’s has reported that APP hit a record high of $745.61 amid a wave of price-target increases and that analysts increasingly frame the self-serve platform as the mechanism to unlock non-gaming growth at scale. [16]
The Street’s latest stance: price targets are high, but the stock is also already high
A key nuance before Dec. 26: bullish research has been plentiful—but APP’s price has moved up with it, narrowing the “easy upside” math in some consensus models.
Recent notable analyst actions (as reported)
- Jefferies raised its price target to $860 (from $800) while maintaining a Buy rating (Dec. 11, 2025). [17]
- Barron’s has highlighted broader target hikes (including a major upward revision from Morgan Stanley earlier in the autumn) as part of the run to new highs. [18]
Where “consensus” sits depends on the dataset
Data aggregators that compile analyst targets show:
- a mid-$700s average target in some snapshots, and
- a wide range between low and high targets. [19]
How to read this into the open:
When a stock is already near highs, price targets matter less as “upside calculators” and more as sentiment markers. Continued upgrades can help; a pause or downgrade cycle can shift momentum quickly.
The biggest risk headline investors still can’t ignore: the reported SEC probe
In October, Reuters reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had been probing AppLovin’s data-collection practices, following reporting that referenced a whistleblower complaint and several short-seller reports. Reuters noted the regulator had not accused AppLovin or its officials of wrongdoing and that the status/advance of the review was unclear. [20]
Barron’s also reported that APP fell sharply on the initial probe reporting and summarized the allegation focus as whether AppLovin breached platform partners’ service agreements to deliver more targeted ads. [21]
Why this matters before the Dec. 26 open:
- Any new development (confirmation, escalation, rebuttal, settlement, or “no action” signals) can move the stock quickly.
- The core business touches mobile platforms and data flows—areas where platform-policy risk and privacy enforcement risk can be existential, not cosmetic.
Short-seller allegations: old news, but not “dead” news
AppLovin has been targeted multiple times in 2025 by short sellers who alleged various forms of misconduct and overstatement around AI and ad practices. The Financial Times reported that earlier in 2025 APP sold off sharply after such reports, while the company strongly denied the claims. [22]
Separately, Investopedia summarized a Muddy Waters short report alleging “scammy” practices and potential terms-of-service violations—claims the company disputed in public responses around that period. [23]
Why this matters now:
Even if investors view the short reports as “old battles,” they can regain relevance if they overlap with ongoing regulatory scrutiny or platform policy changes.
Strategic shift: AppLovin sold its mobile gaming business to focus on advertising
A major structural change behind AppLovin’s current identity: it sold its mobile gaming division to Tripledot Studios in a deal widely reported at about $800 million, allowing AppLovin to focus more tightly on its advertising platform. [24]
For investors, this is a double-edged sword:
- Bull view: cleaner story, more focus, “pure play” ad/AI platform, less operational complexity.
- Bear view: fewer internal gaming assets to train/test systems, and more dependence on external ecosystem relationships.
Market positioning: S&P 500 inclusion raised APP’s profile
AppLovin was added to the S&P 500 effective Sept. 22, 2025, a change that often increases passive fund ownership and liquidity over time. [25]
That inclusion matters heading into Dec. 26 because:
- it can broaden the base of “non-discretionary” ownership, and
- it puts the stock on the radar of more systematic flows and benchmarks—sometimes intensifying momentum, sometimes intensifying drawdowns.
Sentiment check: short interest and options chatter into year-end
Short interest: not extreme, but meaningful
Market data trackers estimate AppLovin had about 15.25 million shares sold short as of mid-December, roughly ~5% of float, with days-to-cover around ~3.9. [26]
This doesn’t scream “crowded short,” but it does suggest:
- there is still an active bearish constituency, and
- if a positive catalyst hits, incremental covering can contribute to sharp moves.
Options: traders are positioning for continued strength
Investor’s Business Daily recently highlighted bullish options strategies on APP, reflecting how actively the trading community is engaging the name at these elevated levels. [27]
(As always: options strategies can carry outsized risk. This is market color, not a recommendation.)
What to watch specifically at the Dec. 26 open
If you’re covering or following APP into Friday’s open, these are the practical signals to track:
- Any new regulatory headlines
Because the SEC-probe narrative has already proven it can move the stock quickly, fresh reporting—or company disclosure—can dominate the session. [28] - Volume and opening range
Post-holiday sessions can begin thin. A breakout or breakdown on unusually strong volume often becomes self-reinforcing in momentum names. - How the stock behaves near recent highs
With the stock within a few percent of its reported 52-week high, the market’s reaction to “new highs” vs. “failed breakout” matters for short-term sentiment. [29] - Analyst commentary cadence
The late-2025 narrative has been fueled by price-target hikes and “top pick” framing tied to Axon/self-serve expansion. More of that can help; silence can matter too. [30] - Fundamental guardrails: Q4 guide math
The market will keep triangulating whether Q4 guidance and margin expectations remain realistic. [31]
Bottom line before the bell
AppLovin heads into the Dec. 26, 2025 open as one of the market’s most watched momentum-and-growth stories: big revenue growth, extraordinary margins, significant buybacks, and a clear push to scale beyond gaming via Axon and a self-serve platform. [32]
At the same time, investors shouldn’t pretend the risk side has disappeared. Regulatory scrutiny tied to data practices and platform terms-of-service questions remains the single biggest headline overhang, and it’s the kind of issue that can reprice a stock quickly—especially one trading at a premium valuation and high volatility. [33]
Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. investors.applovin.com, 3. www.nyse.com, 4. www.sifma.org, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. investors.applovin.com, 10. investors.applovin.com, 11. investors.applovin.com, 12. investors.applovin.com, 13. investors.applovin.com, 14. investors.applovin.com, 15. www.modernretail.co, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.barrons.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.ft.com, 23. www.investopedia.com, 24. www.ft.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.investors.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. investors.applovin.com, 32. investors.applovin.com, 33. www.reuters.com
