After a holiday-shortened week, The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) heads into the Friday, Dec. 26, 2025 session with investors balancing three powerful narratives: (1) a headline-making $1 billion AI partnership with OpenAI, (2) continued focus on streaming profitability and parks strength, and (3) a market that’s increasingly judging legacy media on whether it can thrive as audiences migrate from traditional TV to streaming and short-form video.
Disney shares closed at $114.48 on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025 (the last full session before Christmas Day market closure), after trading between $112.80 and $114.53 that day, with roughly 4.6 million shares in volume. [1]
Below is a detailed, news-driven look at what matters most for DIS stock heading into the Dec. 26 open—covering the latest headlines, analyst forecasts, technical signals, and the catalysts that could move the stock next.
1) Disney stock setup: where DIS stands heading into Dec. 26
Disney’s recent tape has been constructive. Over the prior sessions, DIS worked higher from the low-$110s into the mid-$114s. For context, multiple price-history feeds show DIS closing around $110.63 on Dec. 17 and $114.48 on Dec. 24—a notable climb in just over a week. [2]
That matters heading into Dec. 26, because post-holiday sessions can see lighter liquidity—and when liquidity is thinner, headline sensitivity often rises. In other words: if meaningful news hits (positive or negative), price moves can look bigger than usual.
2) Technical picture: strong trend signals, but momentum looks stretched
If you’re watching DIS from a trading perspective into Friday’s open, the most eye-catching technical takeaway is momentum.
As of the latest technical snapshot dated Dec. 25, 2025 (21:00 GMT), Investing.com’s technical dashboard flags:
- RSI (14): 72.249 (typically interpreted as stretched/overbought territory)
- Moving averages tilting bullish, including:
- MA(5): ~114.44
- MA(50): ~112.30
- MA(200): ~107.70
- Overall “Strong Buy” technical summary on that dashboard [3]
How traders often frame this into the open:
- Bull case: price above key moving averages can attract trend-following buyers on dips.
- Risk: RSI in the low-70s can also mean near-term pullback risk if catalysts disappoint or if the market broadly de-risks.
For Dec. 26 specifically, many traders will watch whether DIS can hold the ~$114 area (near the latest close) and whether it has the momentum to push into the mid-$115s without fading.
3) The headline that reshaped the Disney narrative: the $1B OpenAI deal
The biggest “new story” investors are still digesting is Disney’s three-year partnership with OpenAI, reported by Reuters on Dec. 11, 2025.
Key reported points include:
- Disney is investing $1 billion in OpenAI.
- Disney will license characters from major franchises (including Star Wars, Pixar, and Marvel) for use in OpenAI’s Sora AI video generator.
- Reuters reported that Sora and ChatGPT Images would begin generating videos using licensed Disney characters (examples cited include Mickey Mouse, Cinderella, and Mufasa) starting early next year, and that the deal excludes talent likenesses or voices.
- Disney also plans to use OpenAI tools internally, and the partnership includes guardrails to prevent inappropriate uses of Disney characters.
- The article also notes labor/union concerns and cautions from Hollywood groups about compensation and creative rights. [4]
Why this matters for DIS stock into the next session:
- Multiple expansion narrative: If investors believe AI meaningfully improves margins (production efficiency, personalization, ad targeting, lower costs), the stock can re-rate.
- Execution risk: Integrating generative AI into consumer products and creative pipelines is complicated—and politically sensitive in Hollywood.
- IP protection premium: Disney’s crown jewel is its IP library. Any AI move that’s seen as strengthening (or endangering) that library can move sentiment quickly.
This is one of those headlines that can keep reappearing in analyst notes for months—because it touches growth, margin structure, and competitive moat all at once.
4) Insider buying: board chair James P. Gorman bought DIS shares
Another headline investors often treat as a sentiment signal: insider buying.
A Form 4 filed with the SEC shows Disney director James P. Gorman purchased 18,000 shares on Dec. 12, 2025 at a weighted average price of $111.8857 (the filing notes purchases occurred across a range from $111.64 to $112.075). [5]
The same filing shows post-transaction beneficial ownership lines indicating 38,000 shares held indirectly (via a grantor retained annuity trust) and 6,518 shares held directly, implying total beneficial ownership of 44,518 shares across those lines. [6]
How the market often interprets this (without overstating it):
- Insider buys don’t guarantee upside—but they can reinforce a “management/board confidence” narrative, especially when paired with bullish strategy headlines (like the OpenAI partnership) and stepped-up capital returns (buybacks/dividends).
5) Fundamentals recap: what Disney said in its FY2025 results and FY2026 outlook
Disney’s most important “baseline” for valuation remains its latest earnings and guidance.
In Disney’s FY2025 Q4 and full-year earnings release (Nov. 13, 2025), the company reported (high-level highlights):
- Full-year revenue:$94.4 billion (up 3% vs. prior year)
- Full-year adjusted EPS:$5.93 (up 19% vs. prior year)
- Entertainment DTC (streaming) profitability: Q4 DTC operating income $352 million
- End-of-quarter streaming scale: 196 million Disney+ and Hulu subscriptions, including 132 million Disney+ subscribers [7]
The guidance section is arguably what matters more for the stock:
- Disney guided to double-digit adjusted EPS growth in FY2026 vs FY2025.
- It also laid out capital and cash flow targets including:
- $19 billion cash provided by operations (FY2026 target)
- $9 billion capital expenditures (FY2026 target)
- and a plan to double its share repurchase target to $7 billion in FY2026 compared with FY2025. [8]
- Disney also disclosed a $1.50 per share cash dividend, payable in two installments of $0.75 (Jan. 15, 2026 and July 22, 2026), with the corresponding record dates listed in the release. [9]
Reuters’ earnings coverage tied that outlook to the segment story investors keep coming back to: streaming + parks as growth engines, while the traditional TV business remains under pressure. Reuters also highlighted the buyback and dividend boost, and cited strong theme parks profit in that quarter. [10]
Bottom line into Dec. 26:
- Bulls want to see Disney keep converting streaming scale into durable profit while protecting margins in Sports and keeping Experiences strong.
- Bears focus on whether linear TV declines and content-cost cycles can swamp near-term gains.
6) Box office and content catalysts: a strong holiday frame, plus legal noise
Disney’s film slate and franchise performance still matter—especially because theatrical success can ripple into streaming engagement, consumer products, and park synergy.
Two Reuters-reported entertainment data points that investors have been watching this month:
- “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (distributed by Disney) debuted with $345 million in global ticket sales through Sunday, including $88 million in the U.S. and Canada, per Comscore as reported by Reuters. [11]
- Disney Animation’s “Zootopia 2” was described by Reuters as on track to surpass $1 billion at the global box office, with Reuters noting especially strong reception in China as part of its international momentum narrative. [12]
However, Disney’s blockbuster machine can come with legal headlines:
- Reuters also reported Disney and James Cameron were hit with a copyright infringement lawsuit tied to Avatar: The Way of Water, with the plaintiff seeking at least $500 million in damages and an order blocking the then-upcoming film’s release. [13]
For the stock, the market usually treats franchise lawsuits as headline risk unless they become materially likely to impact distribution, release timing, or economics. But in a lower-liquidity post-holiday tape, even “non-core” headlines can temporarily move sentiment.
7) Broadcasting and distribution pressures: Oscars move, carriage disputes, and the reality of cord-cutting
Disney’s shift toward streaming does not eliminate exposure to the legacy TV ecosystem—especially via ABC, ESPN’s distribution economics, and affiliate relationships.
Two notable developments:
The Oscars won’t stay on ABC forever
Reuters reported that the Academy Awards telecast will move from Disney-owned ABC to YouTube for global live streaming starting in 2029, with ABC still airing the show in the U.S. in 2026–2028. Financial terms were not disclosed. [14]
The investor read-through:
- This is another sign that even flagship broadcast events are migrating toward digital distribution over time.
- It also reinforces why Disney’s long-term valuation debate is increasingly about direct-to-consumer economics and platform strategy.
YouTube TV dispute is a reminder: distribution fights can still bite
In its Nov. 13 earnings story, Reuters reported Disney warned of a potentially prolonged dispute with YouTube TV and noted investor concern about the outlook for Disney’s declining TV business. Reuters also cited a Morgan Stanley estimate that a 14-day blackout could cost Disney about $60 million in revenue (as part of the reporting context). [15]
Even if that specific dispute fades from headlines, the broader point sticks:
- As pay-TV bundles shrink, each distribution negotiation can matter more.
8) Corporate governance: Disney nominated former Apple COO Jeff Williams for the board
On Dec. 9, 2025, Disney announced it nominated Jeff Williams, former Apple COO, to stand for election as an independent director at Disney’s 2026 annual meeting and that the board would expand to 11 members effective upon election. The company highlighted Williams’ experience spanning Apple’s global operations and product strategy. [16]
While board nominations don’t usually move a megacap stock alone, this one fits the current investor narrative:
- Disney is signaling more emphasis on technology + operations excellence, especially as it tries to scale streaming profitability, modernize ad tech, and navigate AI-driven production and personalization.
9) Analyst forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street expects next
Analyst sentiment around Disney remains broadly constructive, with targets that imply meaningful upside from the mid-$110s.
A few data points investors commonly reference:
- StockAnalysis lists an average price target of $135.06 (median $140, high $152, low $110) based on its tracked analyst set, with targets last updated Nov. 14, 2025. [17]
- MarketBeat’s recap around the Dec. 24 session cited a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” with an average target around $134.41 (based on its dataset). [18]
- An Investing.com analyst roundup reported Evercore ISI raised its price target to $142 (from $140) while keeping an Outperform rating, and also referenced other bullish targets such as Goldman Sachs at $152 and BofA Securities at $140 (while noting more neutral stances as well). [19]
- Barron’s analysis argued Disney could be a “real winner” from industry consolidation dynamics tied to the Warner bidding environment, citing a $140 target from MoffettNathanson’s Robert Fishman and framing Disney’s IP strength and streaming progress as key advantages. [20]
What investors should do with these forecasts into Dec. 26:
- Treat targets as scenario signposts, not promises.
- Focus on what must be true for the bull case: streaming profit scaling, Experiences resilience, and credible capital returns—while avoiding value destruction in content spending or distribution battles.
10) The checklist for Dec. 26: what could move DIS stock at the open
Heading into Friday’s open, here’s the most practical “investor checklist” based on current headlines and positioning:
Watch for AI narrative momentum (or pushback)
- Any follow-up commentary, analyst notes, or labor-related reaction tied to Disney’s OpenAI partnership can influence sentiment, because it touches both growth and creative risk. [21]
Monitor post-holiday liquidity and technical reactions
- With RSI elevated, DIS can be more prone to fast swings if the broader market fades or if media/tech headlines hit.
- Traders will likely watch whether DIS holds near $114 after the open. [22]
Keep capital returns on the radar
- Disney’s stated intent to double buybacks to $7B and pay $1.50 in dividends (two $0.75 installments) remains central to the “shareholder returns” pitch. [23]
Don’t ignore “non-core” headlines
- Box office strength can support narrative momentum, while legal disputes can create short-term uncertainty—even if they rarely change the long-term thesis by themselves. [24]
Final thought
Going into the Dec. 26, 2025 session, Disney stock is trading like a company trying to earn a new valuation story: streaming profitability plus world-class IP, reinforced by parks cash flow, and now amplified by an unusually ambitious AI strategy. The upside case is clear in analyst targets, but so is the execution burden—especially as the media landscape keeps shifting away from traditional TV.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 8. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 9. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.barrons.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 24. www.reuters.com
