Starbucks Stock (SBUX) Before the Dec. 26, 2025 Market Open: Latest News, Analyst Targets, Dividend Update, and Key Risks to Watch

Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) heads into the Friday, Dec. 26, 2025 session with investors balancing “turnaround momentum” headlines against ongoing labor friction, China strategy changes, and margin pressure that the company acknowledged in its latest results. With U.S. equity markets reopening after the Christmas Day closure, the post-holiday session can bring lighter liquidity and sharper moves on headlines—especially for large consumer brands in the spotlight. ^[1]

Starbucks shares last settled at $84.57 on Dec. 24 (the final session before Christmas Day), putting the stock in the lower end of its recent 52‑week trading band while the company pushes a multi-year reset under CEO Brian Niccol. ^[2]

1) Market setup for Dec. 26: why the “day after Christmas” tape matters

U.S. markets were closed on Thursday, Dec. 25, 2025 for Christmas Day, and the NYSE also marked an early close on Wednesday, Dec. 24 (1:00 p.m. ET). Normal NYSE core trading hours are 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with pre-open sessions starting earlier. That backdrop matters because the “first full session back” can exaggerate reactions to any overnight corporate or macro headlines. ^[3]

For Starbucks stock, that means traders may be especially sensitive to:

any labor/union updates after a high-profile December,
any China-related developments following the Boyu joint venture announcement,
and any consumer-demand read-through from holiday traffic and gift-card activity.

2) Where Starbucks stock stands heading into the open

Here are the key reference points investors often check pre-market:

Last close (Dec. 24): $84.57
52-week range: roughly $76 to $117 (range varies slightly by data provider; one widely used consensus page shows $76–$117) ^[4]
Dividend (latest declaration): Starbucks’ board approved a $0.62 quarterly cash dividend, payable Feb. 27, 2026 to shareholders of record Feb. 13, 2026. ^[5]

That dividend sets an annualized payout of $2.48/share, which—at the Dec. 24 close—implies a yield around the high‑2% range (yield fluctuates with price). ^[6]

3) The headlines driving Starbucks right now

A) Labor pressure remains a live storyline (strikes + New York settlement)

Labor has been one of the most market-moving Starbucks themes in late 2025:

Strike expansion: Reuters reported that Starbucks Workers United expanded a month-long strike to more cities, with the union citing thousands of workers participating across hundreds of stores and pushing for a first contract. Starbucks said the disruption was limited relative to its U.S. store base. ^[7]
NYC settlement: The Associated Press reported Starbucks agreed to pay about $35 million to more than 15,000 New York City workers to settle claims tied to scheduling practices under the city’s Fair Workweek law, including civil penalties and compliance commitments. ^[8]

Why it matters for SBUX: even when store-level disruption is “small” in percentage terms, labor issues can affect brand perception, operating costs, and near-term execution of Starbucks’ service-speed initiatives.

B) Starbucks taps a new CTO (tech as a turnaround lever)

On Dec. 19, Reuters reported Starbucks hired Anand Varadarajan—a longtime Amazon veteran—as Chief Technology Officer, effective Jan. 19, 2026. The context is important: management is leaning on technology upgrades to improve labor efficiency and store operations as part of the “Back to Starbucks” playbook. ^[9]

Why it matters for the stock: Starbucks’ next phase depends less on “one new drink” and more on operational rhythm—order sequencing, throughput, staffing deployment, and the app/store handshake. Tech leadership is a signal the company wants to systematize that improvement.

C) China: a strategic reset via the Boyu joint venture

China remains Starbucks’ most watched international battleground—and Starbucks made a major move:

Starbucks announced an agreement to form a joint venture with Boyu Capital for Starbucks retail operations in China, with Boyu holding up to 60% and Starbucks retaining 40% while continuing to own and license the brand/IP. The enterprise value cited was approximately $4 billion, and Starbucks said it expects the total value of its China retail business to exceed $13 billion when including sale proceeds, the retained stake, and licensing economics over time. ^[10]
AP also reported the JV is expected to close in Starbucks’ fiscal Q2 2026 and frames it as a way to accelerate expansion while competition intensifies. ^[11]
Reuters added color on competitive pressure, noting Starbucks’ China market share had fallen sharply amid aggressive local rivals. ^[12]

Why it matters for SBUX: investors will watch whether this structure improves capital efficiency, local execution, and unit economics—or whether it’s read as a concession that Starbucks needed a new operating model to compete.

D) The “Back to Starbucks” turnaround: staffing, stores, and the customer experience

Two threads are central to the turnaround narrative:

Staffing/service model rollout: Reuters reported Starbucks accelerated its new staffing and service model to all company-owned North American stores by the end of summer (earlier than previously communicated), positioning it as foundational to the turnaround and focused on faster service times. ^[13]
Restructuring and portfolio changes: Starbucks’ CEO previously outlined plans to reshape the North America footprint and refresh stores, including plans to uplift more than 1,000 locations over 12 months and end fiscal 2025 with nearly 18,300 total Starbucks locations across the U.S. and Canada (company-operated + licensed). ^[14]

Investors should connect these dots: service speed and staffing improvements often raise costs upfront, and Starbucks itself has emphasized this is a multi-year turnaround. ^[15]

E) Holiday demand and gift cards: a quiet earnings lever

Holiday season dynamics matter because Starbucks’ fiscal calendar means the winter quarter captures seasonal behavior.

Business Insider reported Starbucks projected Dec. 24 would be its biggest gift-card sales day of the year in the U.S. and Canada, with more than $60 million expected to be loaded in a single day. The same report cites Starbucks financial filings showing $1.8 billion in unredeemed gift-card funds as of late September 2025, and discusses “breakage” revenue recognition from unused balances. ^[16]

Why it matters: gift cards can support cash flow and loyalty flywheel dynamics, even though the timing of revenue recognition depends on redemption and accounting treatment.

4) The latest fundamentals: what Starbucks most recently reported

In its Q4 and full fiscal year 2025 results, Starbucks reported:

Q4 global comparable store sales +1%, the first positive quarter after several quarters of decline; global comp transactions were also up. ^[17]
Q4 net revenues $9.6 billion (+5%). ^[18]
Q4 GAAP EPS $0.12; non‑GAAP EPS $0.52, both down year-over-year. ^[19]
GAAP operating margin fell to 2.9% in Q4, with Starbucks citing restructuring-related costs (store closures and support-organization simplification), inflation, labor-hour investments supporting “Back to Starbucks,” and deleverage. ^[20]
The company ended Q4 with 40,990 stores globally and noted 627 store closures tied to a restructuring plan announced Sept. 25, 2025 (over 90% in North America). ^[21]

Investors tend to focus on the tension in those numbers: comps improving while profitability remains under pressure, which is common in operational turnarounds where spending precedes measurable demand recovery.

5) Analyst forecasts and Wall Street positioning (what the Street is “pricing”)

Consensus price targets: still constructive, but with a wide range

One widely used consensus summary shows:

Average 12‑month target: about $94.13
Low / high target:$67 to $115
Analyst count:31
Consensus: “Buy” (with a meaningful split between buy/hold/sell) ^[22]

At a mid‑$80s share price, that average target implies low‑double‑digit upside—but the wide spread signals real disagreement about how fast margins can normalize and how durable the traffic recovery will be. ^[23]

Next earnings timing: watch the window, not just the date

Earnings calendars don’t always match, and Starbucks may not have “confirmed” the next date across all platforms:

One earnings tracker lists Feb. 3, 2026 (after close) with an EPS forecast around $0.59. ^[24]
Another shows Feb. 3, 2026 as the next report date. ^[25]
A separate tracker shows an estimated Jan. 27, 2026 date based on prior-year timing. ^[26]

What matters for investors ahead of Dec. 26 isn’t the exact day—it’s the setup: the next earnings print should be the market’s first deep look at holiday-quarter demand, whether service changes are sticking, and whether cost pressure is easing.

6) Pre‑market checklist for Dec. 26: what to watch before the bell

If you’re tracking Starbucks stock into the open, these are the high-signal items most likely to move SBUX:

Labor and legal

Any updates on negotiations with Starbucks Workers United or changes in strike participation. ^[27]
Follow‑through after the NYC scheduling settlement and any similar actions in other jurisdictions. ^[28]

Operations and turnaround execution

Incremental news around store experience initiatives—staffing model rollout, throughput improvements, or customer-experience adjustments. ^[29]
Any additional restructuring commentary (store portfolio, corporate layers, remodel cadence). ^[30]

China strategy and timeline

Clarifications on JV closing timeline and whether Starbucks provides more detail on how licensing economics and governance will work in practice. ^[31]

Capital returns

Dividend reminders and record-date approaches can affect short-term positioning (especially for income-focused holders). ^[32]

Holiday trading conditions

Expect thinner post-holiday liquidity and potentially faster reactions to headlines (especially in large consumer discretionary names). ^[33]

The bottom line for Starbucks stock heading into Dec. 26

Starbucks enters the Dec. 26 session with a clearer storyline than it had earlier in 2025: management is leaning into a multi-year operational reset, comps have finally turned positive in the most recent quarter, and the company is reshaping China with a major JV structure. ^[34]

But the market’s patience will still be tested by the same issues that have defined the last year: labor conflict and regulatory scrutiny, margin pressure from restructuring and reinvestment, and fierce competition—particularly in China. ^[35]

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.