Coherent Corp. (NYSE: COHR) heads into the post‑Christmas trading session on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025 with investors focused on a familiar two‑part story: AI-driven datacenter demand is pushing optical and photonics names higher, while large-shareholder selling and new resale registration paperwork can create near-term volatility—especially in thin holiday liquidity.
Below is what matters most before the opening bell.
COHR stock: the quick premarket checklist
- Last session context: U.S. markets had an early close on Dec. 24, 2025, and were closed on Christmas Day (Dec. 25)—setting up the first full post‑holiday session on Dec. 26. [1]
- Where the stock left off: COHR last traded around $191 after the Dec. 24 session, per widely tracked market data. [2]
- Big overhang headline: A resale registration covering up to 9.78 million shares has kept “share supply” in the spotlight. [3]
- Big tailwind headline: Coherent is leaning into the AI infrastructure cycle with a 300mm silicon carbide (SiC) platform milestone aimed at datacenter thermal efficiency. [4]
- Street forecast tone: Multiple firms raised price targets in December while keeping mixed stances (Neutral/Equal Weight vs. Overweight). [5]
Market setup for Friday, Dec. 26: why the calendar matters this time
The timing is not trivial. The NYSE notes an early close at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025, and U.S. equity markets were closed Thursday, Dec. 25 for Christmas. [6]
That means COHR enters Dec. 26 after:
- A shortened prior session (often lighter volume),
- A full-day trading pause,
- And a holiday week environment where block trades, filings, and analyst notes can move prices more than usual.
Seasonality is also part of the broader tape. MarketWatch highlighted that Dec. 26 has historically been a notably positive day for the S&P 500 in years when the market is open, though seasonal patterns alone are not investment signals. [7]
Where COHR stock stands heading into the open
Coherent shares were recently indicated around $190.98 at the Dec. 24 close and ~$191.48 in extended trading, according to MarketBeat’s consolidated quote snapshot. [8]
The stock’s momentum has been a defining feature of late 2025. One widely circulated market recap described COHR as up sharply year-to-date and trading near a 52-week high around $198.50 during December. [9]
The takeaway for Dec. 26: COHR is entering the session priced for continued strength, which can amplify reactions—good or bad—to anything that hints at:
- incremental demand upside, or
- incremental share supply / selling pressure.
The headline risk investors are watching: share supply and selling pressure
1) The resale registration (9.78 million shares) — what it is and what it isn’t
Mid-December, Coherent filed paperwork tied to registering up to 9,775,846 shares for resale by “selling securityholders,” and multiple market summaries emphasized a critical point: Coherent itself does not necessarily receive proceeds from these resales. [10]
This matters because:
- A resale registration doesn’t automatically mean new dilution (the shares are already outstanding).
- But it can increase effective float and make it easier for holders to sell over time, which can create an “overhang” in investors’ minds—especially when the stock has been running.
Coherent’s filing language and market coverage also link these shares to conversions from Series B-2 Convertible Preferred Stock. [11]
2) Bain-linked selling: multiple block-trade headlines
Large shareholder activity has repeatedly made headlines. For example, Investing.com reported COHR fell after Bain Capital offered to sell a significant block of shares, describing an offering of 5 million shares at a marketed range and framing it as the “third time” in just over a month. [12]
Separately, a Schedule 13D/A summary of a Bain affiliate’s activity describes a conversion into 5,000,000 common shares and an immediate sale at $189.55 per share (about $947.75 million in proceeds), leaving the filer with a reported 5.2% beneficial ownership. [13]
And in late November, Bloomberg reported Bain was marketing a 7.5 million share block trade as it continued to sell down its stake. [14]
Why this matters into Dec. 26: even bullish stocks can stall when the market expects a steady stream of supply. The question for Friday’s open isn’t only “Is AI demand strong?”—it’s also “Is the selling wave mostly absorbed, or still ongoing?”
The growth story keeping bulls engaged: AI datacenters, optical demand, and new platforms
1) Coherent’s 300mm SiC milestone ties directly to datacenter power/thermal needs
On Dec. 3, Coherent announced a “major milestone” in its next-generation 300mm silicon carbide (SiC) platform, explicitly tying it to rising thermal efficiency demands in AI datacenter infrastructure. [15]
In practical terms, this is part of the industry-wide push to make AI compute more power- and thermally-efficient. For COHR investors, it reinforces the narrative that Coherent isn’t only an “optics” play—it’s trying to be a broader AI infrastructure enabler across photonics and engineered materials.
2) Earnings execution has strengthened the fundamental case
Coherent’s most recent quarterly report (fiscal Q1 2026, ended Sept. 30, 2025) highlighted:
- Revenue of $1.581B (up 17.3% Y/Y)
- Non-GAAP gross margin of 38.7%
- Non-GAAP EPS of $1.16
- And management commentary pointing to strong AI-related datacenter and communications demand. [16]
The release also noted balance-sheet actions, including $400M of debt paid down and a refinancing aimed at reducing interest expense. [17]
Just as important for “before the open” positioning: Coherent provided explicit forward guidance.
3) Near-term company forecast: Q2 FY2026 guidance (this is the core “forecast” item)
For fiscal Q2 2026, Coherent guided to:
- Revenue:$1.56B to $1.70B
- Non-GAAP gross margin:38% to 40%
- Non-GAAP operating expenses:$300M to $320M
- Non-GAAP EPS:$1.10 to $1.30 [18]
That guidance is the anchor for most near-term analyst model revisions and is a key reason COHR remains tightly linked to “AI optical infrastructure” sentiment.
4) Product momentum: optics for next-gen AI networks
In the same earnings material, Coherent highlighted multiple datacenter/optical milestones—including work tied to co-packaged optics, 1.6T links, and “multi-rail” technology themes that line up with what analysts have been discussing in recent upgrades. [19]
Wall Street’s latest view: price targets are rising, but opinions are still split
In the last couple of weeks, multiple firms lifted price targets—often citing optical transceiver demand and AI infrastructure buildouts—while keeping ratings that range from Neutral to Overweight:
- BofA raised its price target to $210 (from $165) while keeping a Neutral rating, citing outsized demand for optical transceivers/components and demand exceeding supply. [20]
- Morgan Stanley raised its target to $180 (from $150) and reiterated Equal Weight, arguing the AI trade broadened into optical/infrastructure names, while cautioning that investors may need to be more selective given valuations. [21]
- JPMorgan raised its target to $215 (from $180) and kept Overweight, citing “scale-across” and “multi-rail” opportunities and a bigger implied total addressable market. [22]
Meanwhile, aggregated consensus pages show why investors can get whiplash: depending on the dataset and when targets were last updated, the “average” target can lag a fast-moving stock. For example, MarketBeat’s snapshot shows a consensus summary and a target range that can appear conservative versus where COHR has been trading recently. [23]
How to read this into Dec. 26: the sell-side is broadly acknowledging stronger optical demand, but valuation and near-term volatility (including share-supply headlines) are keeping some firms from going fully bullish even as they raise targets.
Business structure update that still matters for how investors model COHR
Coherent has also been reshaping how it presents the business. The company disclosed it realigned into two reporting segments:
- Datacenter & Communications
- Industrial
…and provided recast historical financials to reflect the new structure. [24]
That matters because the market is increasingly valuing COHR on how investors perceive the datacenter/communications growth engine versus the more cyclical industrial side.
What to watch specifically on Dec. 26 (and why it could move the stock)
Here are the practical “before the open” catalysts and signals traders and longer-term investors typically monitor for COHR right now:
Share-supply headlines (highest near-term sensitivity)
- Any update on block trades, secondary sales, or selling shareholder activity (even rumors can move the stock in thin liquidity). [25]
- Follow-on commentary around the 9.78M-share resale registration and whether the market treats it as a one-time paperwork event or a sign of more supply ahead. [26]
AI optical demand signals (highest narrative sensitivity)
- New analyst notes reinforcing (or challenging) the idea that optical demand continues to exceed supply. [27]
- Any industry datapoints that either confirm continued AI network buildouts—or suggest near-term digestion.
The “numbers” investors are anchoring on into the next report
- Coherent’s own Q2 FY26 outlook ranges for revenue, margins, and EPS are the key baseline for expectations. [28]
Bottom line before the bell
Coherent (COHR) enters the Dec. 26, 2025 session as a high-momentum AI infrastructure name with real fundamental support—revenue growth, expanding margins, debt paydown, and upbeat Q2 guidance. [29]
But COHR also carries a very specific near-term risk factor: share supply optics. Between high-profile block-trade headlines and a resale registration that keeps the topic front-and-center, the stock can swing sharply if the market senses more selling pressure—or if buyers decide the overhang is already priced in. [30]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.stocktitan.net, 4. www.coherent.com, 5. www.tipranks.com, 6. www.nyse.com, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. finviz.com, 10. www.stocktitan.net, 11. www.stocktitan.net, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.stocktitan.net, 14. www.bloomberg.com, 15. www.coherent.com, 16. www.coherent.com, 17. www.coherent.com, 18. www.coherent.com, 19. www.coherent.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.stocktitan.net, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.coherent.com, 29. www.coherent.com, 30. www.investing.com
