U.S. stock markets reopen Friday, December 26, 2025, after the Christmas Day closure. (Stocks also had an early close on December 24.) [1]
For CoreWeave, Inc. (Nasdaq: CRWV), the post-holiday session lands in the middle of a high-stakes debate: is CRWV an early “picks-and-shovels” winner of the AI boom—or the most leveraged and execution-sensitive way to play it? [2]
As of the last available trade ahead of the Dec. 26 session, CRWV was around $78.87 (after-hours included), down about 1.7% from the prior close.
Below is what matters most before the opening bell—the latest company news, what the most recent results actually said, where analysts sit, and the key catalysts (and landmines) that can move the stock quickly in thin holiday liquidity.
Why CoreWeave stock is on so many watchlists right now
CoreWeave is positioning itself as “The Essential Cloud for AI”—a specialized cloud provider built around high-performance GPU infrastructure for training and inference workloads. The company completed its public listing on Nasdaq in March 2025 under CRWV. [3]
The stock’s story has been dominated by two forces:
- Explosive demand for AI compute, visible in large multi‑year contracts and backlog growth. [4]
- The cost—and complexity—of building AI capacity fast enough, including financing, data center delivery risk, and GPU supply cycles. [5]
That combination has produced big upside moves and big drawdowns, with investors continuously repricing the balance between growth and risk.
The latest CoreWeave news to know heading into Dec. 26
1) CoreWeave joins the U.S. Department of Energy’s “Genesis Mission” (Dec. 18)
CoreWeave announced it has joined the Department of Energy’s Genesis Mission, a DOE initiative aimed at connecting compute resources, research facilities, and datasets to accelerate discovery science, national security, and energy innovation. CoreWeave said it plans to make its AI cloud platform available to support advanced scientific workloads. [6]
This is notable not just as a headline, but because it aligns with a broader push into government work.
2) “CoreWeave Federal” and the push toward FedRAMP-aligned offerings (Oct. 28; reiterated Dec. 18)
CoreWeave previously announced CoreWeave Federal, a dedicated unit aimed at serving U.S. government agencies and the Defense Industrial Base, with plans to pursue FedRAMP and other authorizations. The DOE Genesis Mission announcement explicitly ties into that public-sector strategy. [7]
Investor implication: Government pathways can be sticky and long-lived, but they’re compliance-heavy and can take time to translate into revenue at scale.
3) Runway partnership: CoreWeave to power next-gen AI video models (Dec. 11)
CoreWeave announced an agreement with Runway to power “next generation AI video models,” centered on high-performance GPU infrastructure and integrated tools. [8]
Investor implication: This reinforces CoreWeave’s role as infrastructure for “frontier” model builders—useful for the growth narrative, though investors will still want to see contract economics and durability.
4) The financing drumbeat continues: $2.25B convertible notes due 2031 (announced Dec. 8; priced Dec. 9)
CoreWeave priced an upsized $2.25 billion private offering of 1.75% convertible senior notes due 2031. Key terms disclosed by the company include:
- Coupon: 1.75% per year (cash-pay, semiannual starting June 1, 2026)
- Initial conversion price: about $107.80 per share (a ~25% premium to the stock price cited for Dec. 8)
- Net proceeds estimate: about $2.21B (before certain expenses), with a portion allocated to capped call transactions intended to reduce dilution up to a cap price (initially $215.60 per share) [9]
Investor implication: Convertibles can lower cash interest costs versus straight high-yield debt, but they still increase leverage/claims and can introduce future dilution dynamics.
5) Senior notes context: $1.75B of 9.0% senior notes due 2031 (July 2025)
Separately, CoreWeave disclosed it closed a private offering of $1.75B of 9.000% senior notes due 2031 in July 2025. [10]
Investor implication: The capital structure is not a side plot—it’s central to how the company funds rapid GPU/data-center expansion.
6) Revolving credit facility expanded to $2.5B (Nov. 12)
CoreWeave announced an agreement to expand its revolving credit facility from $1.5B to $2.5B and extend maturity to November 2029, led by major banks (including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, MUFG, and others). [11]
What the most recent earnings report really showed
CoreWeave’s latest quarterly release (for Q3 2025, quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025) highlighted scale, backlog, and infrastructure expansion—alongside the financial reality of running a capital-intensive AI infrastructure platform.
Key Q3 2025 numbers (from the company)
- Revenue:$1.3647B (vs. $0.5839B a year earlier)
- Net loss:$110.1M (loss per share $0.22)
- Adjusted EBITDA:$838.1M (61% margin)
- Revenue backlog:$55.6B as of Sept. 30, 2025 [12]
What’s inside that “backlog” headline matters
CoreWeave defines revenue backlog as remaining performance obligations plus other estimated future revenue under committed customer contracts, subject to delivery/availability requirements. [13]
Investor implication: Backlog is a powerful demand signal, but it’s not the same as guaranteed near-term revenue—execution and delivery timelines still matter.
Infrastructure scale: power is the scoreboard
In its Q3 highlights, the company said it added about 120 MW of active power in the quarter to reach about 590 MW, and expanded contracted power to about 2.9 GW. [14]
Investor implication: In AI infrastructure, power availability and data center readiness can be as important as customer demand—because demand without delivered capacity is just “potential.”
Guidance: the big watch item remains operational execution
A key reason CRWV has been volatile: the market is forcing investors to price data-center delivery risk in real time.
Reuters reported that CoreWeave trimmed its 2025 revenue forecast after delays at a third-party data center partner:
- New 2025 revenue forecast:$5.05B to $5.15B
- Prior forecast:$5.15B to $5.35B
- Reuters also reported the CFO said 2026 capital spending would more than double, versus expected $12B–$14B of spend in 2025. [15]
Importantly, Reuters noted the impacted customer agreed to extend the contract term, keeping total deal value intact, but the episode still surfaced what a Barclays analyst called “operational risk” in a young industry. [16]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: bullish overall, but “high risk” is the common refrain
Citi’s “Buy” comes with a warning label
Barron’s reported that Citi renewed a Buy rating while lowering its price target to $135 (from $192) and explicitly labeling the stock High Risk, pointing to limited trading history and high customer concentration. [17]
Where the “Street” clusters
Market-data aggregators show an average target in the mid-$120s range (one snapshot lists a target around $125.93), with CRWV also showing frequent rating changes as the story evolves. [18]
How to read this: Targets are less about “precision” here and more about whether analysts believe (1) demand stays strong, (2) CoreWeave keeps delivering capacity on time, and (3) funding remains available at survivable costs.
The capital structure conversation isn’t going away—and the broader market is noticing
Two pieces of “bigger than one stock” coverage matter for CRWV investors:
- The Financial Times reported that major tech players (including CoreWeave) have moved large amounts of AI data center debt off balance sheets using special purpose vehicles, raising questions about transparency and systemic risk if AI demand slows. [19]
- The Verge published a deep dive on GPU-backed lending and “neocloud” financing dynamics, arguing the ecosystem carries structural risks tied to chip values, power costs, and aggressive build timelines—with Nvidia central to the system. [20]
You don’t need to agree with every conclusion to take the signal: financing and leverage have become part of the mainstream AI narrative, not just a footnote.
CoreWeave stock snapshot before the Dec. 26 open
Here are the key “where are we now” markers many traders and investors watch:
- Last traded: about $78.87 as of the last available session data (Dec. 24)
- 52-week range (snapshot): roughly $33.51 low / $187.00 high [21]
- Market cap (snapshot): about $39.3B [22]
- Short interest (snapshot): one widely-followed market dashboard shows short float ~14.9% and short interest around 47.6M shares (timing varies by source and settlement date) [23]
Also note: holiday trading conditions can amplify moves—spreads widen, liquidity thins, and headline sensitivity rises. A MarketWatch seasonal study even points out Dec. 26 has historically been a strong day for the S&P 500 when markets are open, which can shape sentiment—though seasonality shouldn’t be treated as a trading system. [24]
The bull case for CRWV into 2026
Investors who remain constructive on CoreWeave typically anchor on five points:
- AI compute demand continues to outstrip supply, supporting pricing and long-term contracts. [25]
- Backlog scale (company-reported $55.6B) suggests multi-year demand visibility. [26]
- Infrastructure momentum: MW and contracted GW figures imply a large growth runway if delivered on schedule. [27]
- Customer mix narrative: Citi (via Barron’s) highlighted growth in very large customers and a claim that a majority of revenue comes from investment-grade clients. [28]
- Optionality from new vectors like public sector initiatives and partnerships (e.g., DOE Genesis Mission, Runway). [29]
The bear case: what can still break the story
The reasons skeptics (and cautious bulls) keep emphasizing risk:
- Execution risk is real. Data center delays already impacted revenue timing and guidance. [30]
- Leverage and funding dependence. The company is actively financing expansion with multiple instruments (revolvers, high-yield notes, convertibles). Even if demand is strong, the cost of capital and refinancing windows matter. [31]
- Customer concentration risk. Citi’s “high risk” framing called out concentration explicitly. [32]
- Industry-wide financing opacity. Broader reporting has raised flags about off-balance-sheet structures and the durability of the private-credit bid for AI infrastructure. [33]
- Thin margins for error if AI demand slows. Even with strong growth, the economics can look very different if utilization dips or GPU cycles compress pricing. Reuters noted margin pressure concerns tied to infrastructure costs and competition. [34]
A practical “before the bell” checklist for Dec. 26
If you’re watching CRWV into the open, these are the catalysts most likely to matter intraday and over the next several weeks:
- Any new contract announcements (or updates to existing mega-deals)
- Signals on capacity delivery (data center buildouts, power availability, partner readiness) [35]
- Financing headlines (additional debt, amendments, pricing changes, or rating commentary) [36]
- AI infrastructure sentiment across peers (neoclouds, data center providers, GPU supply chain) [37]
- Positioning/volatility dynamics (high short interest + thin liquidity can equal sharp squeezes—or air pockets) [38]
- Macro backdrop: rate expectations and credit spreads matter more than usual for levered growth stories [39]
Bottom line for the Dec. 26, 2025 session
CoreWeave heads into the Dec. 26 reopen as a stock where demand optimism and financing realism collide.
The company is putting up eye-catching growth and backlog figures, plus visible momentum in infrastructure scale. [40] But the market has also been reminded—via guidance cuts tied to delivery delays—that this is an execution-and-capital story as much as an AI story. [41]
For investors, the cleanest way to frame CRWV before the open is not “AI will win.” It’s:
- Will CoreWeave keep delivering capacity on time?
- Can it fund expansion without destabilizing the balance sheet or diluting equity holders more than expected?
- And does the broader AI infrastructure financing machine stay supportive in 2026? [42]
If those answers stay “yes,” CRWV remains a high-beta way to express the AI infrastructure thesis. If they turn “maybe,” the stock can reprice fast.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. investors.coreweave.com, 3. investors.coreweave.com, 4. investors.coreweave.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. investors.coreweave.com, 7. www.coreweave.com, 8. www.coreweave.com, 9. investors.coreweave.com, 10. investors.coreweave.com, 11. investors.coreweave.com, 12. investors.coreweave.com, 13. investors.coreweave.com, 14. investors.coreweave.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. finviz.com, 19. www.ft.com, 20. www.theverge.com, 21. finviz.com, 22. finviz.com, 23. finviz.com, 24. www.marketwatch.com, 25. investors.coreweave.com, 26. investors.coreweave.com, 27. investors.coreweave.com, 28. www.barrons.com, 29. investors.coreweave.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. investors.coreweave.com, 32. www.barrons.com, 33. www.ft.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. investors.coreweave.com, 37. www.theverge.com, 38. finviz.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. investors.coreweave.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.ft.com
