U.S. markets reopen for a full session on Friday, December 26, 2025, after Christmas Day (Dec. 25) closure and an early close on Dec. 24—so traders will be returning to thinner, post-holiday liquidity with a high-volatility name back in focus. [1]
This article is about IREN Limited (NASDAQ: IREN)—the AI-cloud-and-bitcoin-mining operator that became one of 2025’s most talked-about “AI infrastructure” tickers after landing a blockbuster Microsoft contract. (It’s also easy to confuse with the Italian utility Iren S.p.A.; note that Borsa Italiana is closed on Dec. 26, 2025, so the Milan-listed name won’t be trading that day.) [2]
Below is what matters most for IREN stock heading into the Dec. 26 open—the latest news catalysts, the company’s own targets, Wall Street forecasts, and the key risks investors should keep front-and-center.
IREN stock snapshot heading into Dec. 26
Where the stock left off: IREN last closed at $41.98 on Dec. 24, 2025, the final session before the Christmas Day holiday. [3]
Size and volatility: The company’s market cap is roughly $13.8B with a 52-week range of about $5.13 to $76.87, a reminder of how extreme the swings have been in 2025. [4]
Recent trading texture: Even in the final stretch before the holiday, IREN moved violently—recent daily data shows closes in the mid-$30s to low-$40s and multi-day whipsaws. [5]
That volatility matters because post-holiday sessions can amplify moves—especially in high-beta stocks. (One data service lists IREN’s beta around 4.24, which is “fast” even by tech standards.) [6]
The big story: IREN’s Microsoft contract changed the narrative overnight
The defining catalyst for IREN in late 2025 was the announcement of a five-year agreement valued at about $9.7 billion with Microsoft tied to access to Nvidia’s GB300-class AI hardware, alongside a related Dell arrangement for GPU systems. [7]
Key details investors continue to debate:
- Scale and timing: The deployments are phased through 2026 at IREN’s Childress, Texas site, and the contract includes a 20% customer prepayment. [8]
- Execution sensitivity: Reuters noted the agreement includes delivery requirements and that Microsoft is trying to navigate an AI capacity crunch expected to persist into mid-2026. [9]
- Strategic implication: The deal effectively positioned IREN as a “picks-and-shovels” AI infrastructure provider rather than only a bitcoin miner—an upgrade in perceived business quality, but also a major customer concentration risk (more on that below). [10]
What IREN itself says: targets are massive, but today’s revenue mix is still mostly mining
If you only read headlines, it’s easy to assume IREN is already an AI revenue machine. The company’s latest reported quarter shows the transition is still early.
In its Q1 FY26 results (quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025), IREN reported:
- Total revenue:$240.3M (record), up sharply year-over-year
- Bitcoin mining revenue:$232.9M
- AI cloud services revenue:$7.3M
- Adjusted EBITDA:$91.7M [11]
The company also highlighted that its net income figure included unrealized gains linked largely to financial instruments tied to convertible notes (important context for anyone comparing “profit” across quarters). [12]
The forward-looking goal investors are buying (or fading)
IREN’s own ambition is bold: it says it is targeting $3.4B in AI Cloud annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) by the end of 2026, associated with expansion to 140,000 GPUs. [13]
It also disclosed additional multi-year contracts beyond Microsoft (including names such as Together AI, Fluidstack, and Fireworks AI) supporting a nearer-term target of AI Cloud ARR greater than $500M by end of Q1 FY26. [14]
The tension for IREN stock into Dec. 26 is clear: today’s revenue base is still predominantly mining, while the valuation debate increasingly prices a future AI cloud ramp.
The December financing package: why the stock sold off, and why some bulls say it “cleared the deck”
A second major December storyline is financing—because building AI infrastructure at IREN’s intended scale requires enormous capital.
What happened (with numbers)
On Dec. 1, IREN announced plans for $2B in convertible senior notes (split between notes due 2032 and 2033) and a concurrent equity offering designed to repurchase portions of its existing convertible notes. [15]
By Dec. 3, the company detailed the equity leg: a registered direct offering of 39,699,102 ordinary shares at $41.12, with proceeds intended to fund the repurchase of existing convertibles. [16]
On Dec. 8, IREN announced it had closed the package, including:
- $2.3B total convertible notes (including a $300M greenshoe exercised)
- Repurchase of about $544.3M of existing convertibles (notes due 2029 and 2030)
- A “capped call” structure intended to help reduce dilution up to an initial cap price of $82.24 per share [17]
Why it matters for Dec. 26 trading
This is the kind of financing that can pressure a stock in the short term for “mechanical” reasons:
- Equity issuance = dilution headline
- Convertible issuance = complexity + hedging flows
- Post-deal positioning = volatility as event-driven traders exit or reset
IREN itself explicitly warned (in its Dec. 1 release) that hedging and trading activity linked to these transactions could be substantial versus historic volume and could adversely affect the share price. [18]
At the same time, many longer-term bulls argue the December package improves the runway to execute on the Microsoft/Dell buildout—by extending maturities, lowering average cash coupons, and removing some deeply in-the-money legacy convertibles from the capital structure. [19]
Wall Street forecasts: big upside targets, but “Neutral” cautions are getting louder
IREN is now covered by a mix of high-conviction bulls and valuation-focused skeptics—often looking at the same information and drawing very different conclusions.
The most recent high-profile call: Goldman Sachs initiates at Neutral
A key near-term talking point is Goldman Sachs initiating coverage with a Neutral rating and a $39 price target (reported in multiple market summaries). [20]
That target sits below where the stock was trading in the days after the call—fueling narratives that the stock’s late-2025 rebound may have outpaced near-term fundamentals.
Consensus targets are far higher—but the spread is huge
Depending on the tracking service, IREN’s average price target varies meaningfully, but many aggregators still show targets above the current price, reflecting expectations that AI revenue scales sharply:
- StockAnalysis lists a $69.20 price target and “Buy” consensus. [21]
- Nasdaq’s quote page shows the stock’s 52-week high/low and broad market data (often used by investors to contextualize target ranges). [22]
- A Nasdaq-hosted recap of Fintel data cited an average one-year target around the low-$80s, but with an extremely wide range. [23]
The practical takeaway before the Dec. 26 open: IREN is not priced on a tight consensus. It’s priced on a battle between “AI hypergrowth” believers and “execution/valuation” skeptics, with capital markets activity adding fuel.
Technical and positioning signals traders will watch on Dec. 26
Because IREN has become a momentum battleground stock, many market participants will watch positioning and short-term signals—not just fundamentals.
Recent price action suggests a fragile rebound
In the final sessions before the holiday, IREN traded in a wide band. Daily data around Dec. 16–24 shows swings from the mid-$30s up into the low-$40s within days. [24]
Momentum gauges suggest “not overbought,” but still high-risk
One technical dashboard lists IREN’s RSI (14) around 42, which is typically interpreted as neither overheated nor deeply oversold—more “indecisive reset” than “crowded long.” [25]
Short interest remains meaningful
Finviz lists a short float around ~17–18% (data can vary by source and update cycle), which can increase the odds of sharp squeezes—especially around news, analyst notes, or bitcoin volatility. [26]
The catalysts that can move IREN stock next
Heading into Dec. 26, the market is likely to key on a few specific “tell me you’re executing” datapoints.
1) Any new detail on Microsoft deployment timing (or GPU supply constraints)
The Microsoft deal is a multi-year runway, but market reactions will be driven by whether IREN hits buildout milestones and whether the broader AI chip supply chain cooperates. Reuters has emphasized the ongoing capacity crunch dynamics in Big Tech’s AI expansion. [27]
2) Financing follow-through and capital allocation signals
With the December capital raise completed, investors will look for signs that the funds are translating into tangible infrastructure progress—without additional near-term dilution surprises. [28]
3) The “old business” still matters: bitcoin sensitivity
Even with the AI pivot, IREN’s most recent quarter shows bitcoin mining still dominates current revenue. That means bitcoin price moves can still spill into IREN sentiment—sometimes more than AI headlines do. [29]
4) Earnings timing: the next report is still not formally confirmed by the company
Many market calendars estimate IREN’s next earnings around February 11, 2026, but dates can shift until officially announced. [30]
The core risks long-term investors can’t ignore
Even if you’re bullish on the AI infrastructure boom, IREN has a risk profile that deserves blunt language—especially for newer investors discovering it via Google Discover.
Customer concentration risk
A $9.7B contract is transformative—but it can also mean the business becomes highly sensitive to one relationship, one deployment schedule, and one counterparty’s changing priorities. [31]
Execution and engineering risk
Building and operating power-dense, liquid-cooled GPU clusters at scale is not a “normal data center expansion.” Missing timelines can have economic consequences (and reputational ones) when your anchor customer is Microsoft. [32]
Capital intensity and dilution risk
IREN’s December package shows management is willing to move aggressively in capital markets to fund growth. That can be a strength—but it also means shareholders must price the continuing possibility of dilution, convertible complexity, and hedging-driven volatility. [33]
Narrative whiplash risk
IREN sits at the intersection of two highly sentiment-driven arenas—bitcoin and AI. When either theme turns risk-off, IREN can fall fast regardless of long-term opportunity.
Bottom line for Dec. 26: what to know before the opening bell
Going into the Dec. 26, 2025 open, IREN stock is best understood as a high-volatility proxy for a single question:
Can IREN turn a headline-grabbing Microsoft deal into a scaled AI cloud business—fast—without blowing up the balance sheet or diluting shareholders into exhaustion? [34]
The facts investors have right now:
- A massive Microsoft contract with phased deployments through 2026 [35]
- A completed December financing package combining convertibles, equity, and capped calls [36]
- A business still currently producing most revenue from bitcoin mining, even as AI targets dominate the valuation debate [37]
- A Street outlook split between high targets and fresh valuation caution (including a high-profile Neutral initiation) [38]
If you’re watching IREN on Dec. 26, expect the stock to trade on positioning + macro sentiment + any incremental execution signals, not just on long-term totals from the Microsoft headline.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.borsaitaliana.it, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. apnews.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.globenewswire.com, 20. www.streetinsider.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. finviz.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.globenewswire.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.nasdaq.com, 34. www.nasdaq.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.globenewswire.com, 37. www.nasdaq.com, 38. www.streetinsider.com
