NEW YORK — U.S. stocks head into Friday’s session (December 26, 2025) with Wall Street trying to extend a late-year push that has already lifted major indexes to fresh records. Trading is expected to be lighter than usual—many desks are thinly staffed, and several overseas markets are closed—making prices more prone to quick swings even when the headlines feel quiet. [1]
The big question for “US stock market today” coverage isn’t just whether the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq can add to this week’s gains—but what kind of rally this is: a steady, fundamentals-driven grind higher, or the kind of year-end melt-up that thrives on thin liquidity, optimism, and investors not wanting to be the person who missed the last leg. [2]
US stock futures today: a calm setup before the open
Stock index futures were only modestly higher heading into Friday, signaling a relatively steady start after the Christmas Day market closure.
As of late Thursday evening (ahead of Friday’s open), Investing.com reported:
- S&P 500 futures up about 0.1% to 6,987.75
- Nasdaq 100 futures up about 0.1% to 25,908.0
- Dow Jones futures up about 0.1% to 49,057.0 [3]
That “small moves” picture fits the calendar: Christmas created a break in cash trading, global participation is patchy, and many investors are positioning for year-end rather than reacting to big new data. [4]
The backdrop: record highs going into the holiday
Wall Street didn’t stumble into Christmas—it sprinted.
In the last session before the holiday closure (the early-closing Christmas Eve session on Wednesday, Dec. 24), all three major indexes finished higher, with record closing highs for both the Dow and S&P 500. Reuters reported:
- Dow: up 0.60% to 48,731.16
- S&P 500: up 0.32% to 6,932.05
- Nasdaq Composite: up 0.22% to 23,613.31 [5]
Volume was notably light—about 7.61 billion shares traded on U.S. exchanges versus a 20-day average of 16.21 billion, according to Reuters—one reason why investors are watching liquidity closely again today. [6]
Why December 26 gets so much attention on Wall Street
There’s a seasonal superstition that refuses to die because it keeps occasionally being right: the “Santa Claus rally,” typically defined as the last five trading days of the year plus the first two trading days of the new year.
December 26 specifically has a reputation for being unusually strong. MarketWatch, citing Bespoke Investment Group’s research, notes that historically Dec. 26 has been the most consistently positive trading day of the year for the S&P 500 (with unusually high average and median gains, and relatively few down years when markets were open). [7]
None of this is a law of physics—seasonality can break any year—but it does shape expectations and positioning. If enough traders believe the day tends to be strong, that belief can become a self-fulfilling nudge in thin markets.
Rates, the Fed, and the “who’s next?” question hanging over 2026
If 2025 taught investors anything, it’s that markets can rally through almost anything—so long as the path for interest rates looks friendly enough and corporate earnings keep moving.
Two Fed-related narratives are front and center in late-December trading:
1) When the next rate cuts come—and how many.
Reuters’ global markets wrap-up notes that investors are focused on the timing and scale of future Federal Reserve cuts, with traders pricing in at least two cuts in 2026 (and expecting the Fed to wait until later in the year). [8]
2) The Fed chair succession.
Reuters also pointed to markets watching for President Donald Trump’s expected pick for a Fed chair replacement, with Jerome Powell’s term ending in May—a decision that could influence rate expectations and market confidence. [9]
The political pressure angle has been a real market theme this year. In its year-end look at 2025, the Associated Press described how Trump repeatedly pushed the Fed to cut rates and how public clashes raised concerns in markets about central bank independence. [10]
Tech and AI stocks: still the engine, still the debate
The U.S. stock market’s 2025 story has been, in many ways, a story about technology, AI investment, and whether the profit math will justify the spending.
Even in the run-up to Christmas, Reuters reported that indexes had been helped by a rebound in AI-related names after a bout of selling tied to worries about high valuations and whether heavy capital expenditures could pressure profitability. [11]
A few stock-specific headlines that have been in focus going into today:
- Micron Technology continued to draw attention after extending a rally sparked by a strong forecast; Reuters reported it rose 3.8% on Dec. 24 to a record close of $286.68. [12]
- Intel slipped after a report that Nvidia halted tests involving Intel’s 18A manufacturing process, according to Reuters. [13]
- Investor’s Business Daily highlighted that Nvidia said it will license technology and bring personnel from AI chip startup Groq, keeping the “arms race” narrative alive even in a holiday week. [14]
For traders, this mix is familiar: AI remains the market’s growth engine, but also its valuation stress test.
Energy, oil prices, and geopolitics: a quiet driver that can get loud fast
Energy is often the sleeper variable in stock-market narratives—until it isn’t.
Oil prices edged higher Friday morning as markets weighed geopolitical risk and potential supply disruptions. Reuters reported:
- Brent crude up slightly to about $62.29 per barrel
- WTI crude up slightly to about $58.41 per barrel [15]
Reuters also noted oil is on track for its steepest annual decline since 2020, with Brent and WTI down roughly 16% and 18% for the year, respectively, amid expectations that supply could outpace demand in 2026. [16]
Why that matters for “US stock market today”: energy prices feed into inflation expectations, consumer sentiment, and sector leadership inside the S&P 500. Even modest moves can matter when markets are trading on rate-cut assumptions.
Gold and silver at record highs: what the metals rally says about risk
While U.S. equities are flirting with records, precious metals are doing something even more dramatic.
Reuters reported that silver hit $75 for the first time, while gold and platinum notched record highs, powered by a mix of speculative momentum, expectations for more U.S. rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical tension. [17]
Key levels Reuters cited early Friday:
- Spot gold: around $4,511.70/oz, after touching $4,530.60
- Spot silver: around $74.65/oz, after hitting an all-time high of $75.14 [18]
Reuters’ broader markets coverage also emphasized that precious metals have been a spotlight trade into year-end, with gold up sharply year-to-date and silver posting even bigger gains. [19]
For stock investors, this matters less as a “competing asset class” and more as a signal: parts of the market are still hedging aggressively against currency and geopolitical uncertainty even as equities grind higher.
Is the market open today? Yes—despite the federal closure order
One unusual wrinkle this year: President Donald Trump ordered federal government offices closed on Dec. 24 and Dec. 26, but major U.S. exchanges kept their scheduled calendars.
Reuters reported that NYSE, Nasdaq, Cboe, and IEX stuck with the plan: an early close on Dec. 24, and a full trading day on Dec. 26. CME markets also remained open on those dates. [20]
So for anyone searching “is the stock market open today,” the answer for Friday, Dec. 26, 2025 is yes—regular trading hours.
Economic calendar: not many fireworks, but markets still watch the tape
Holiday weeks tend to be light on major scheduled releases, and much of today’s attention is likely to stay on positioning, sector rotation, and any surprise headlines.
Still, there are always routine releases and rate publications that can matter on the margin. The St. Louis Fed’s FRED release calendar lists several scheduled items for Friday, Dec. 26, including SOFR-related data and selected interest rate releases. [21]
On the growth side, investors have been digesting confirmation that the U.S. economy expanded strongly in Q3. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP increased at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter of 2025 (initial estimate). [22]
The bigger picture: why 2025’s rally sets up a tricky 2026
Today’s session is a bridge between the year that was and the one investors are trying to price.
In its year-end review, AP noted that S&P 500 index funds returned more than 18% in 2025 through Dec. 11, despite periods of sharp turbulence tied to tariffs, rate anxiety, and AI bubble fears. [23]
AP also flagged the tension under the surface: strategists cited concerns that broad market valuations still look expensive after prices rose faster than profits, and that 2026 gains may depend more heavily on earnings growth and the trajectory of interest rates than on multiple expansion. [24]
That’s the weird charm of year-end markets: they can feel sleepy hour-to-hour, but they’re full of big, slow arguments about the future.
What to watch for in the US stock market today
For Friday, Dec. 26, the market setup is less about a single data point and more about microstructure and psychology:
- Liquidity and volatility: thin participation can exaggerate moves in either direction. [25]
- Santa rally tracking: Dec. 26’s historical strength is on traders’ radar, but it’s not destiny. [26]
- Big Tech leadership: AI-linked names remain central to index direction. [27]
- Rates narrative: expectations for future cuts—and Fed leadership uncertainty—continue to shape risk appetite. [28]
- Commodities pulse: record metals and slightly firmer oil reinforce the “macro crosscurrents” backdrop even as stocks push higher. [29]
If the market does manage a clean, low-drama grind higher today, it will fit the classic late-December script: fewer sellers, reluctant bears, and investors trying to finish the year on a high note. If it doesn’t—well, thin markets have a way of reminding everyone that the floor can be slippery even when the music is festive.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. apnews.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.investors.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. fred.stlouisfed.org, 22. www.bea.gov, 23. apnews.com, 24. apnews.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com
