NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is in focus heading into the close of Friday, 26.12.2025, as investors digest a headline-grabbing AI inference technology licensing deal with Groq—and the market tries to extend a strong year-end run amid thin post-holiday liquidity.
The twist: early reports framed the Groq news as a blockbuster acquisition, but Groq and multiple follow-up reports have emphasized a different structure—a non-exclusive licensing agreement plus key Groq executives joining NVIDIA, while Groq continues as an independent company. [1]
Below is what matters most after today’s opening bell—and what to keep on your radar before the next U.S. market session opens.
NVDA stock price check: where shares stand heading into the close
In the first minutes of Friday’s trading session, NVDA was changing hands around $189.89 (about +0.7% on the day at that time), with an early session range roughly between $189.50 and $190.48, and a market cap around $4.58 trillion.
Two context points matter for interpreting any late-day or after-hours move:
- Christmas Eve (24.12.2025) was an early close (1:00 p.m. ET), which can distort short-term technical signals and liquidity comparisons. [2]
- Friday (26.12.2025) is a normal trading day, but holiday-adjacent sessions are often thinner—meaning headlines can move mega-cap names faster than usual. [3]
The headline driver today: NVIDIA’s Groq deal
What Groq publicly confirmed
Groq says it entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with NVIDIA for Groq’s inference technology. It also states:
- Groq founder Jonathan Ross, Groq president Sunny Madra, and other team members will join NVIDIA to help advance and scale the licensed technology
- Groq will continue operating independently, with Simon Edwards stepping in as CEO
- GroqCloud continues “without interruption” [4]
What NVIDIA’s CEO told employees (per reporting)
In an internal email cited by multiple outlets, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said NVIDIA plans to integrate Groq’s low-latency processors into NVIDIA’s “AI factory” architecture—and also emphasized that NVIDIA is not acquiring Groq as a company (i.e., this is not a traditional M&A purchase of the entire business). [5]
The $20 billion question
Multiple reports (and market chatter) have centered on an eye-popping $20 billion figure. Importantly, several sources describe this as the value attached to the broader arrangement (licensing, assets, and/or associated components), but the exact terms have not been publicly disclosed by the companies. [6]
For investors, that uncertainty is the point: the market may keep re-pricing NVDA into and out of the close until it gets clarity on whether this is primarily:
- an “acqui-hire + license” that accelerates NVIDIA’s inference roadmap with limited balance-sheet impact, or
- a large cash/commitment package that changes near-term capital allocation math.
Why this matters: inference is where the next AI battleground is forming
Investors have long associated NVIDIA with training—the massive GPU clusters that build frontier models. But as AI adoption scales, inference (running models in production, cheaply and quickly) becomes the recurring, high-volume workload. That’s where Groq positioned itself: low-latency inference chips and software tailored to serving outputs quickly.
Several “day-of” analyst and market takes framed the Groq agreement as a strategic inference move rather than a defensive headline:
- Rosenblatt called the licensing deal strategically important and kept its rating with a $245 12-month price target. [7]
- The same Investing.com report noted BofA Securities and Baird maintaining $275 targets, and Tigress Financial lifting to $350 (as reported there). [8]
- MarketWatch’s summary of Bernstein commentary described the deal as strengthening NVIDIA’s positioning in inference alongside its training dominance. [9]
Whether you agree with the price targets or not, the shared framing is consistent: inference is moving from “secondary” to “core,” and NVDA wants more control over that layer.
What NVIDIA already has going for it: blockbuster results and a clear near-term outlook
Even before the Groq news cycle, NVIDIA’s fundamentals were already doing much of the heavy lifting for the bull case.
In its most recent quarterly report (Q3 fiscal 2026, released 19.11.2025), NVIDIA reported:
- Record revenue of $57.0B (up 22% Q/Q, 62% Y/Y)
- Record Data Center revenue of $51.2B (up 25% Q/Q, 66% Y/Y)
- Gross margins in the ~73% range (GAAP and non-GAAP)
- Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue outlook of $65.0B ±2% [10]
That matters for today’s trade because it sets a baseline: Groq is an “incremental strategy” story sitting on top of already-elevated expectations. If the market senses the Groq move is additive without diluting margins or stretching cash too far, it may be treated as bullish optionality. If not, it could be framed as a costly way to buy time.
Also notable for calendar-watchers: NVIDIA previously said it would pay its quarterly dividend on 26.12.2025 (though at $0.01/share it’s not typically a price driver). [11]
The other NVDA overhang investors keep revisiting: China policy and H200 shipments
Beyond Groq, the other “stock-moving” theme that can flare up quickly is geopolitics and export policy.
Reuters has reported that NVIDIA aims to begin shipping H200 chip modules to China by mid-February 2026, with shipments contingent on approvals and tied to a reported policy approach involving a fee. [12]
Separately, Reuters also reported that U.S. lawmakers pressed the Commerce Department for disclosure around license reviews/approvals for H200 sales to Chinese firms. [13]
Why this matters into the next open:
- Any weekend headline on approvals, restrictions, or enforcement can gap NVDA at the next session’s open.
- Even rumors can move the stock in thin liquidity periods—especially when the broader market is positioned for a year-end “risk-on” finish.
Broader market setup: why macro can amplify NVDA’s moves into year-end
NVDA rarely trades in isolation—especially when it’s sitting at mega-cap scale and tied to the “AI trade.”
Reuters’ year-end market preview highlighted:
- Major indexes near record territory, with the S&P 500 roughly 1% from 7,000 at the time
- A focus on Fed minutes from the December meeting (expected next week) and how rate-cut expectations evolve
- The risk that light volumes and year-end portfolio adjustments can exaggerate moves [14]
If you’re trading or positioning NVDA, that’s a reminder: macro headlines can overwhelm single-stock narratives for a session or two—even when the company-specific story is strong.
What to watch after today’s closing bell and before the next market session opens
1) Any clarification on the Groq deal economics
The market’s biggest open question is not “Is Groq good?”—it’s what NVIDIA is paying/committing, over what time horizon, and what exactly is licensed. Groq’s announcement confirms structure but not economics. [15]
Watch for:
- follow-up statements
- credible reporting on consideration/terms
- anything that clarifies whether the widely-circulated “$20B” is cash, milestones, multi-year licensing, or something else [16]
2) More analyst notes and price-target changes
Today’s flow already includes multiple targets and “strategic win” framing. In year-end tape, fresh ratings changes can move price disproportionately. [17]
3) Technical levels traders are watching (because they often become self-fulfilling)
Some market coverage today emphasized NVDA reclaiming key moving averages and remaining in widely followed “buy zone” frameworks. [18]
You don’t need to believe in any one system—just know that:
- If NVDA holds above widely watched levels into the close, it can pull in momentum buyers next session
- If it fades into the close on heavy volume, it can trigger mechanical de-risking
4) Export-control headlines (especially over the weekend)
The China/H200 thread is one of the few narratives that can override AI optimism quickly. Reuters’ reporting on shipments and U.S. license scrutiny is the type of story that can resurface at any time. [19]
5) The calendar reality: the U.S. market does not open “tomorrow” (Saturday)
Because 27.12.2025 is a Saturday, U.S. exchanges are closed. The next U.S. market open is Monday, 29.12.2025, with regular hours. [20]
That means your “before the next open” checklist should assume:
- two days of headline risk with no ability to react in regular trading
- potential gap risk at Monday’s open, especially if the Groq economics are clarified or if macro/policy news breaks
6) One more nuance: federal office closures and delayed releases
The Federal Reserve’s calendar indicates federal office closures affecting scheduled releases, with some items pushed to the next business day. That can reduce the normal flow of market-moving data and put more weight on headlines instead. [21]
Bottom line for NVDA into the next session
As the market heads into the open on 26.12.2025, NVDA’s story is being driven by a single dominant question: Does the Groq agreement meaningfully expand NVIDIA’s inference moat without creating a near-term capital allocation hangover? [22]
With the broader market leaning bullish into year-end and volumes likely thinner than normal, the path for NVDA into the next open may come down to:
- whether the deal is repeatedly framed as “creative licensing + talent” (bullish), or
- whether investors fixate on the headline price tag and uncertainty (choppy).
Either way, expect fast reactions after the bell—and remember that the next regular session isn’t Saturday: it’s Monday, 29.12.2025.
References
1. groq.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. www.nyse.com, 4. groq.com, 5. www.datacenterdynamics.com, 6. www.datacenterdynamics.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.marketwatch.com, 10. investor.nvidia.com, 11. investor.nvidia.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. groq.com, 16. indianexpress.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investors.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.nyse.com, 21. www.federalreserve.gov, 22. groq.com
