New York time check: It is 11:52 a.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025—and U.S. markets are open in a typically thin post‑holiday session.
Palantir Technologies (ticker: PLTR) is once again in the spotlight as investors weigh two big narratives that have defined the stock’s outsized 2025 run: (1) accelerating demand for Palantir’s AI-enabled software platforms and (2) a rising list of government and critical‑infrastructure programs where Palantir is embedded in operational workflows.
As of late morning trading, PLTR is around $191, down about 1%–1.5% on the day, after moving between roughly $189 and $196. [1]
Meanwhile, the broader tape is relatively calm—consistent with “muted” year‑end trading conditions—while major indexes hover near record levels and investors remain highly focused on the Federal Reserve’s 2026 rate path. [2]
Palantir stock price today: the quick snapshot
Here’s what stands out for PLTR right now:
- PLTR price: about $191 late morning in New York, modestly lower on the session. [3]
- Market mood: U.S. stocks are near year‑end highs in light post‑Christmas volume, with investors looking ahead to Fed minutes next week and any fresh signals on interest-rate cuts. [4]
- Why PLTR is trading like a “story stock”: Palantir’s fundamentals are improving quickly, but so is the debate over whether the valuation already prices in years of AI‑era growth. [5]
The market backdrop: why today’s tape matters for high‑beta AI stocks like PLTR
The last week of December often brings lighter liquidity and more exaggerated moves, especially in popular momentum names. Reuters notes that year‑end portfolio adjustments can add volatility at a time when light trading can amplify price swings. [6]
At the same time, investors are trying to finish a strong year on a constructive note:
- The S&P 500 has been hovering near record peaks and approaching the psychologically important 7,000 level, according to Reuters. [7]
- Investors are watching Fed minutes due Tuesday for more clarity on where rates could go next, after the Fed cut rates three straight meetings late in 2025 to reach 3.50%–3.75%. [8]
For Palantir shareholders, this matters because PLTR has become a classic AI sentiment barometer: when the market is comfortable owning high‑growth winners, PLTR tends to benefit; when the market rotates toward “valuation discipline,” PLTR’s premium can become a headwind. [9]
The three headline catalysts moving Palantir’s narrative right now
1) The Navy’s $448 million “Ship OS” program puts Palantir at the center of industrial modernization
One of the biggest recent headlines: the U.S. Navy announced a $448 million strategic investment tied to a shipbuilding initiative called Ship OS, designed to scale AI and autonomy capabilities across the maritime industrial base. The Navy said Ship OS will leverage Palantir’s software to modernize shipbuilding’s data-heavy environment. [10]
Importantly for investors, the Navy highlighted pilot results that speak to why Palantir can win mission‑critical deployments:
- At General Dynamics Electric Boat, the Navy said schedule planning dropped from 160 manual hours to under 10 minutes.
- At Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, material review times were reduced from weeks to under one hour. [11]
Axios reported that Navy leadership and Palantir CEO Alex Karp framed ShipOS as a way to get earlier warning on supply chain issues (months in advance rather than same‑day surprises). [12]
A key investor takeaway: whether ShipOS becomes a long‑duration revenue engine depends on execution. The Register reported Palantir’s head of defense, Mike Gallagher, emphasized proving value and, over time, shifting sustainment costs to customers—suggesting a performance-driven pathway to expansion. [13]
2) Palantir + Nvidia + CenterPoint: “Chain Reaction” aims to speed AI data‑center construction
Palantir also recently teamed with Nvidia and CenterPoint Energy to build Chain Reaction, a software product meant to help accelerate AI data‑center construction by coordinating across utility interconnections, permitting, engineering, and related workflows. [14]
Why investors care: data centers are becoming a core “picks-and-shovels” battleground of the AI boom, and Palantir is positioning itself not just as an analytics layer—but as an operational system that helps large organizations execute complex builds faster.
3) The earnings engine: Palantir’s guidance and U.S. commercial acceleration
Palantir’s most recent quarterly reporting cycle reinforced why bulls remain enthusiastic. In its Q3 2025 earnings release filed with the SEC, Palantir reported:
- Revenue:$1.181 billion, up 63% year over year
- U.S. commercial revenue:$397 million, up 121% year over year
- U.S. government revenue:$486 million, up 52% year over year [15]
Palantir also detailed strong deal activity, including record total contract value and growth in commercial remaining deal value—metrics investors watch as leading indicators for forward revenue. [16]
For forward-looking guidance, Palantir said it expected Q4 2025 revenue of $1.327–$1.331 billion, and raised full‑year 2025 revenue guidance to $4.396–$4.400 billion. [17]
Bull case vs. bear case: why Palantir stock debates get so intense
The bull case: “operational AI” + embedded workflows + accelerating commercial momentum
The optimistic read goes like this:
- Palantir’s software sits inside real operations, not just dashboards. ShipOS is a timely example: it’s aimed at schedule planning, materials, bottlenecks, and production management—areas where minutes saved can translate into significant dollars and strategic outcomes. [18]
- Commercial momentum in the U.S. has been accelerating, with Palantir pointing to rapid growth and strong contract value metrics in its Q3 filing. [19]
- Palantir keeps aligning itself with the AI infrastructure wave (e.g., Chain Reaction with Nvidia and CenterPoint). [20]
Some market commentary has also leaned into the idea that Palantir’s “forward deployed” approach (deep integration with customers) is a durable advantage. Barron’s noted that BofA Securities kept a Buy rating at the time and raised its price target (reported as $215), arguing Palantir’s engineering model is a key differentiator—even while acknowledging valuation concerns and mixed Street sentiment. [21]
The bear case: valuation risk and sentiment risk are real—and can bite fast in thin markets
The skeptical read focuses on what’s priced in:
- Reuters reported Palantir was trading at an extremely elevated forward P/E (citing LSEG data), far above many mega-cap AI leaders—highlighting how demanding the expectations are. [22]
- Reuters Breakingviews noted CEO Alex Karp publicly took aim at famous skeptics (including Michael Burry) in the context of Palantir’s rich valuation—underscoring how central valuation debate has become to the stock’s identity. [23]
This matters today because in late‑December trading, a stock with a premium multiple and heavy retail participation can move sharply on relatively modest flows.
Analyst forecasts: what Wall Street thinks PLTR is worth (and why it’s still split)
On the “consensus” side, MarketBeat shows Palantir with a Hold consensus rating, with 23 analysts skewing heavily toward Hold recommendations and a smaller number of Buys and Sells. MarketBeat’s displayed average price target is $172.28, below the current trading level, with a very wide low‑to‑high range. [24]
That big range is the story: Palantir is no longer a “quiet software company.” It’s a stock where the outlook is heavily dependent on how you model:
- the durability of government programs (and how quickly they expand),
- the pace of commercial adoption, and
- how much of the AI boom translates into recurring, high‑margin platform revenue—versus cyclical deal timing.
Retail trading is a hidden variable: PLTR has become a favorite “crowded long”
Another factor investors shouldn’t ignore: retail participation.
Reuters reported that Palantir ranked among the top retail-traded stocks by daily cash turnover in 2025, citing data from Vanda Research, and included commentary from market professionals on how retail activity can affect short-term price action. [25]
In practice, that means PLTR can behave differently than a typical enterprise software name—especially around catalysts (contracts, earnings, analyst calls) and in low‑volume periods.
What investors should watch next: the near-term calendar and “known unknowns”
Even if PLTR headlines dominate your feed, the next directional push could come from broader market catalysts:
Fed minutes next week (macro volatility risk)
Reuters flagged Fed minutes due Tuesday as a key event risk into year‑end positioning, at a time when markets remain focused on how many rate cuts could come in 2026. [26]
Next earnings date: still not confirmed, but early February is the consensus expectation
Multiple third‑party calendars currently point to early February 2026 for Palantir’s next earnings release (Q4 2025), while emphasizing it is unconfirmed. [27]
For investors, the key is less the exact day and more the setup: Palantir’s guidance is already ambitious; any future upside will likely require continued evidence that commercial growth and large deployments (like ShipOS) are scaling in a measurable way.
If you’re trading PLTR into the close: what to know about today’s session
Because the market is open right now, here are the practical, news-driven considerations that matter into the afternoon and the next session:
- Thin liquidity can widen spreads. Moves can look “bigger than the news.” Reuters specifically warned that light year‑end trading can exaggerate price moves. [28]
- Watch the macro tape even more than usual. If rate expectations swing, high‑multiple AI names often react first. [29]
- Headline risk remains elevated. Palantir’s story is contract‑ and partnership‑driven, and recent announcements (ShipOS; Chain Reaction) show how quickly narrative can shift on program wins or execution updates. [30]
Bottom line
Palantir stock is trading in a market that’s near record highs but also in a seasonally thin window where rates narratives and positioning can drive short-term swings. [31]
For PLTR specifically, the latest news flow strengthens the long-term narrative—AI embedded in real operations—from Navy shipbuilding modernization to data‑center buildout software alongside Nvidia. [32]
But the valuation debate is not going away, and the split among analysts reflects a simple reality: at today’s price, Palantir must keep turning headline‑worthy momentum into repeatable, scalable financial performance. [33]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.navy.mil, 11. www.navy.mil, 12. www.axios.com, 13. www.theregister.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.navy.mil, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.navy.mil, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.navy.mil, 33. www.reuters.com
