NEW YORK — Friday, December 26, 2025 (12:45 p.m. ET).
U.S. stocks are trading in a thin, post‑Christmas session with major indexes hovering near record levels, as investors keep one eye on year‑end positioning and another on the “prove‑it” phase of the AI trade heading into 2026. [1]
Against that backdrop, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is moving modestly—typical for a holiday‑thinned tape—but the news flow around AWS, AI spending, and regulation continues to shape the longer‑term narrative investors are underwriting.
Amazon stock price today: AMZN trades near $233 as Wall Street digests a quiet holiday session
Amazon shares were last indicated around $232.85 in midday New York trading, up about 0.2% on the session, with an intraday range roughly $231.67 to $233.50 and volume in the mid‑single‑digit millions of shares—lighter than many “normal” sessions.
The broader market tone remains calm: Reuters described U.S. indexes hovering near all‑time highs in thin post‑Christmas trading, supported by resilient economic data and renewed appetite for AI‑linked names. [2]
That “thin tape” context matters for AMZN holders. In low‑liquidity sessions, price moves can look more meaningful than they are, spreads can widen, and single headlines can have an outsized intraday impact—especially for megacaps that dominate index flows.
The big AMZN catalysts right now: AWS growth, AI infrastructure spending, and execution
For Amazon stock, the market’s central question into 2026 is straightforward:
Can Amazon translate massive AI and infrastructure investment into durable margin expansion—especially at AWS—without spooking investors on capex?
That tension is front and center in recent Amazon disclosures and analyst commentary:
- In its latest major earnings update, Amazon highlighted strong AI demand and accelerating AWS capacity work. CEO Andy Jassy said AWS demand in AI and core infrastructure remained strong and that the company has been focused on accelerating capacity. [3]
- CFO Brian Olsavsky indicated full‑year capital expenditures around $125 billion, with expectations that spending would be higher next year—a key datapoint for investors modeling free cash flow. [4]
This is why AMZN often trades like a “two‑engine” story: retail + advertising for scale and cash generation, and AWS for high‑margin profit power—while AI capex acts as both a growth accelerant and a valuation stress test.
Amazon’s AI leadership overhaul: one org for models, chips, and quantum
One of the most closely watched Amazon developments this month is a reorganization of its AI leadership and technical roadmap.
Amazon confirmed that longtime AWS executive Peter DeSantis will lead a new group spanning AI models (including Nova), silicon, and quantum computing, while Rohit Prasad will depart at year‑end. [5]
In Amazon’s own announcement, Jassy framed this as a pivotal moment—an “inflection point”—and said the goal is to unify focus across the foundational technologies that will shape future customer experiences. [6]
Amazon also said Pieter Abbeel will lead its “frontier model research team” within AGI (the base‑model effort) while continuing his work with robotics. [7]
Why it matters for AMZN stock: Wall Street has increasingly valued “AI winners” not just by model quality, but by whether they control the full stack—models + chips + cloud infrastructure—and can defend price‑performance advantages over time.
OpenAI talks: Amazon reportedly discusses a ~$10B investment—potentially tied to chips and cloud
In a separate AI‑related headline, Reuters reported Amazon is in talks to invest about $10 billion in OpenAI, though discussions were described as “very fluid.” [8]
According to Reuters, the talks highlight the AI sector’s intense demand for computing power, and they come after OpenAI signed a large cloud services deal with Amazon (reported by Reuters as $38 billion in November). [9]
Reuters also reported that The Information said OpenAI planned to use Amazon’s Trainium chips—a potential strategic boost for Amazon’s custom silicon ambitions as hyperscalers look to reduce reliance on the most expensive GPU supply. [10]
Investor takeaway: Whether or not the investment materializes, the market is reading these reports as part of a broader thesis: Amazon wants more AI workloads to run on AWS—and on Amazon‑designed chips—because that’s where operating leverage can be strongest over time.
Funding the AI buildout: Amazon’s bond sale underscores capex scale
Amazon’s AI push isn’t just strategic—it’s capital intensive. Reuters reported Amazon would raise $15 billion in its first U.S. dollar bond offering in three years, with proceeds potentially used for acquisitions, capex, and buybacks. [11]
The same Reuters report pointed to Morgan Stanley estimates that major tech firms (including Amazon) were expected to spend roughly $400 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025. [12]
What investors watch next: not simply the size of capex, but the rate of return—and whether AWS can keep growing while capex intensity (capex as a share of revenue) eventually normalizes.
Beyond the U.S.: Amazon’s India investment plan adds another long runway
Amazon also announced a longer‑dated investment plan in India. Reuters reported Amazon planned to invest more than $35 billion in India by 2030, focused on AI capability expansion, logistics infrastructure, exports, and jobs. [13]
The strategic relevance for shareholders is that India remains a market where Amazon can still pursue multi‑year share gains in e‑commerce and cloud, albeit amid competitive and regulatory complexity.
Logistics and delivery: Amazon’s shipping clout is now a competitive moat
Amazon’s delivery buildout—often underappreciated in equity narratives—has become large enough to reshape U.S. shipping economics.
Reuters noted Amazon’s investments in fulfillment and delivery have cemented it as a major player in the U.S. parcel market, citing Pitney Bowes’ parcel index reporting that Amazon surpassed UPS and FedEx in delivery volumes last year, and that Americans shipped 22.37 billion parcels in 2024 with Amazon delivering 6.3 billion (vs. USPS 6.9 billion). [14]
Reuters also reported Amazon was in discussions with USPS about their relationship ahead of a contract expiration next year, while UPS planned to cut volumes handled for Amazon by more than 50% by 2026. [15]
Why it matters: faster, cheaper delivery improves conversion and Prime retention—while also giving Amazon more leverage over last‑mile costs, which can flow directly into retail margins.
Regulatory overhang: FTC’s $2.5B Amazon settlement and the Prime refunds timeline
A major non‑earnings headline for Amazon shareholders in late 2025 has been the FTC’s Prime case.
The FTC announced a $2.5 billion settlement alleging deceptive Prime enrollment and difficult cancellations, including a $1 billion civil penalty and $1.5 billion in refunds. [16]
The FTC’s refunds page states that automatic refunds were provided between November 12, 2025 and December 24, 2025, up to $51 for eligible customers. It also warns consumers about scams and notes a claims process for others is expected to begin in 2026. [17]
The court‑approved settlement administrator site adds that the claims process window opened December 24, 2025, with notices expected by January 23, 2026 for eligible consumers. [18]
Investor angle: Markets typically treat such settlements as “known costs,” but investors will watch for (1) any operational friction from redesigned Prime flows, and (2) whether the episode increases regulatory scrutiny of other subscription‑like Amazon products.
Zoox headlines: recall news is a reminder that Amazon’s “other bets” carry risk
Amazon’s autonomous vehicle unit Zoox remains an intriguing optionality story—but it also carries typical autonomy‑sector regulatory and safety risk.
Reuters reported Zoox is recalling 332 U.S. vehicles due to an automated driving system software issue that could cause vehicles to cross the center line or stop in the path of oncoming traffic near intersections; Zoox issued a free software update. [19]
For AMZN shareholders, Zoox is not the core valuation driver like AWS or advertising. But it can influence sentiment because it represents Amazon’s willingness to fund long‑horizon bets—and because safety and regulatory narratives can move quickly.
Analyst forecasts and AMZN price targets: what Wall Street expects for 2026
Even with a muted day‑to‑day tape, analyst commentary on Amazon has remained constructive—particularly around AWS.
Consensus targets (snapshot)
Barron’s data shows an average AMZN price target around $297.45, with a high target of $360 and low of $250, alongside an earnings calendar pointing to FY 2025 earnings on 01/29/2026. [20]
Using a midday price near $232.85, that implies roughly:
- ~28% upside to the average target
- ~55% upside to the high target
- ~7% upside to the low target
A notable bull case: Oppenheimer / AWS capacity
MarketWatch highlighted an Oppenheimer view (analyst Jason Helfstein) arguing AWS capacity expansion could drive a meaningful re‑acceleration, lifting a price target to $305 and outlining an upside scenario tied to AWS growth and improving capital efficiency. [21]
How investors typically use these forecasts: not as guarantees, but as a roadmap of what assumptions matter most—AWS growth rate, capex trajectory, and the pace of AI workload monetization.
What to watch for the rest of today—and into the next market session
Because U.S. markets are open at the time of writing, investors tracking AMZN into the close (and into the next session) will typically focus on a few near‑term items:
- Holiday‑week liquidity and sudden swings
Thin volume can amplify moves—especially if macro headlines hit or megacap rebalancing kicks in. [22] - AI sentiment and “prove‑it” scrutiny into 2026
Reuters quoted Annex Wealth Management chief economist Brian Jacobsen describing 2026 as a potential “prove‑it” year where companies must demonstrate productivity and margin gains from AI investments. [23] - Amazon’s AI org changes and execution cadence
Investors will watch for follow‑through: product timelines, chip adoption signals, and whether Nova/Trainium momentum shows up in AWS growth and margins. [24] - OpenAI / partnership headlines
Any confirmation, denial, or restructuring details around the reported OpenAI talks could move sentiment quickly given the strategic implications for AWS and custom silicon. [25] - Regulatory and consumer optics post‑Prime settlement
With automatic refunds having run through Dec. 24, the next phase is the 2026 claims process and ongoing compliance changes—headlines here can influence narrative risk. [26]
If you’re reading this after the close: the practical “next session” checklist is to (a) compare AMZN’s close vs. Nasdaq/megacap peers, (b) scan for overnight AI/regulatory headlines, and (c) keep an eye on year‑end flows—because late‑December price action can be flow‑driven rather than fundamentals‑driven.
Bottom line for Amazon stock (AMZN) right now
In today’s quiet, post‑holiday market, AMZN’s tape may look uneventful—but the fundamentals debate is anything but. Investors are balancing:
- Bull case: AWS re‑acceleration + AI monetization + advertising strength + logistics moat, with analysts pointing to substantial upside if AWS capacity and returns improve. [27]
- Key risk: the market’s tolerance for very high AI capex and whether returns arrive quickly enough to justify megacap valuations in a “prove‑it” 2026. [28]
- Headline risk: regulatory scrutiny (Prime settlement implementation) and “other bets” volatility (Zoox). [29]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.aboutamazon.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.aboutamazon.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.ftc.gov, 17. www.ftc.gov, 18. www.subscriptionmembershipsettlement.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.barrons.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.aboutamazon.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.ftc.gov, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.ftc.gov
