As of 1:05 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is trading at $94.22, up about 0.6% on the day in a quiet, post-holiday session. The broader tape is mixed: the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is fractionally lower while the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) is roughly flat—typical of thin year-end trading where stock-specific headlines can matter more than macro catalysts.
Friday’s backdrop is also unusually seasonal: December 26 historically has been one of the market’s more consistently positive calendar days, and it falls inside the “Santa Claus rally” window that traders watch into year-end. [1]
Why Netflix stock is in focus today
Even with the market in “holiday mode,” Netflix is not. The company is still absorbing the implications of its blockbuster agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming assets—a move that has become the dominant driver of near-term sentiment on NFLX stock, from financing questions to antitrust uncertainty and analyst model revisions. [2]
At the same time, Wall Street is closing out a strong 2025 in U.S. equities—with the S&P 500 near major milestones—while investors look ahead to next week’s catalysts (including Fed communications) and the start of the 2026 earnings season. [3]
The Warner Bros. deal: key terms NFLX investors should understand
Netflix’s proposed Warner transaction is unusual not just for its size, but for its structure and timeline.
Deal value and structure
- Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery have said the deal values Warner’s targeted assets at $27.75 per share, implying an equity value of roughly $72 billion and enterprise value around $82.7 billion. [4]
- Under Netflix’s press release, each Warner share would receive $23.25 in cash plus ~$4.50 in Netflix stock (subject to a collar). [5]
Timeline
- Closing is projected in 12–18 months, and is tied to Warner’s planned separation of its Global Networks business into a new public company (“Discovery Global”), expected in Q3 2026. [6]
Synergies (management’s claims)
- Netflix says it expects $2–$3 billion in annual cost savings by year three and expects the transaction to be accretive to GAAP EPS by year two. [7]
The collar that matters when NFLX moves
A detail many investors gloss over: the Netflix stock portion is collared. Netflix’s deal terms specify that the stock value stays at about $4.50 per Warner share only if Netflix’s 15-day VWAP (measured shortly before closing) falls within a defined range; outside that range, the number of Netflix shares delivered becomes fixed. [8]
Why it matters for NFLX holders: if Netflix’s share price is weak heading into the close window, the collar mechanics can change the dilution Netflix ultimately issues. And since today’s NFLX price is below the collar’s lower bound cited in the filing, investors are watching how volatility could shape the eventual share math—though the closing window is far in the future. [9]
Financing watch: what “bridge loan headlines” mean for Netflix stock
The biggest near-term investor question isn’t whether Netflix can run a streaming platform—it’s whether the Warner package forces Netflix into an unusually heavy financing posture.
Reuters reported that Netflix refinanced part of a $59 billion bridge loan tied to the Warner transaction, replacing a portion with a $5 billion revolving credit facility plus two $10 billion delayed-draw term loans, leaving about $34 billion of the bridge to be syndicated. [10]
That matters because:
- Interest-rate sensitivity: debt funding costs depend on credit spreads and the market’s appetite for large issuance, even in a year when equities have been strong. [11]
- Balance-sheet narrative shift: Netflix has been prized for rising profitability and cash generation; taking on large incremental leverage changes the “clean story,” which is why several analysts have framed the deal as a longer period of uncertainty. [12]
Rival bids and the “deal chessboard” investors must track
Netflix isn’t negotiating in a vacuum. Paramount Skydance has continued pressing a hostile bid for Warner—keeping the situation fluid and raising the possibility (however uncertain) of price escalation.
- Reuters reported that Oracle founder Larry Ellison offered a $40.4 billion personal guarantee to bolster Paramount’s bid financing. [13]
- A major Warner shareholder, Harris Oakmark, told Reuters Paramount’s amended terms were “necessary, but not sufficient,” and indicated it would hold out for more—suggesting the competitive tension may not be over. [14]
- Business Insider also reported that Raymond James analysts still expected Warner to stick with Netflix’s bid while leaving room for Paramount to raise its offer. [15]
For Netflix stockholders, the takeaway is straightforward: every incremental headline about Paramount’s posture, Warner’s board actions, or shareholder responses can swing probabilities of completion, renegotiation, or concessions—and that feeds directly into how investors model risk premiums on NFLX.
Antitrust and politics: the biggest “unknown unknowns”
Regulatory review is widely expected to be the central obstacle to the Netflix–Warner plan.
- The Associated Press outlined that either a Netflix–Warner deal or a Paramount–Warner deal would likely trigger extensive antitrust scrutiny in the U.S. and abroad—and that the process could stretch more than a year. [16]
- AP also cited antitrust expert commentary suggesting companies may argue the market is broader than “subscription streaming,” pointing to YouTube’s scale; Northwestern Pritzker School of Law professor Jim Speta expects parties to frame consolidation as necessary to compete against YouTube. [17]
- Reuters reported Netflix has leaned into this thesis, telling investors that even combined with Warner, Netflix’s U.S. view share would move from 8% to 9%, still behind YouTube at 13% (per Netflix’s own letter), though attorneys cautioned regulators may not view the platforms as interchangeable. [18]
This regulatory debate is also playing out in a charged political environment. AP reported political factors could add unpredictability to the process. [19]
Analyst forecasts: why Netflix price targets are all over the map
Even amid the deal turbulence, aggregated sell-side forecasts still skew positive—but dispersion is wide.
- Multiple analyst-aggregation dashboards show a buy-leaning consensus and average 12‑month targets around the low-$130s (with highs in the $150s and lows around the low-$90s). [20]
- Yet several prominent downgrades landed after the Warner announcement. For example:
- Rosenblatt downgraded Netflix to Neutral with a $105 target (per TheFly via TipRanks). [21]
- Huber Research downgraded Netflix with a $92 target (also via TheFly/TipRanks). [22]
- The Los Angeles Times reported Pivotal Research Group’s Jeffrey Wlodarczak cut his rating amid concerns around pricing risk and possible regulatory-driven modifications. [23]
What that means for investors: the “average price target” can look enticing versus today’s ~$94 level, but the range of targets is telling you the real story—Wall Street is split on whether the Warner move is a value-creating scale play or an execution-and-leverage overreach.
Fundamentals still matter: Netflix’s earnings setup into 2026
While the merger fight dominates headlines, Netflix’s underlying business performance is still the anchor that ultimately supports (or breaks) the stock’s valuation.
The last quarter on the books: Q3 2025
In its Q3 2025 shareholder letter filed with the SEC, Netflix reported:
- Revenue:$11.51 billion (+17% year over year)
- Operating margin:28.2%, below its prior guidance due to an expense tied to a Brazilian tax dispute
- Diluted EPS:$5.87
- Free cash flow:$2.66 billion for the quarter, and Netflix said it expected ~$9 billion of free cash flow for full-year 2025 (± a few hundred million). [24]
The next major catalyst: Q4 2025 earnings (Jan. 20, 2026)
Netflix’s investor relations site says it plans to post Q4 2025 results on Tuesday, January 20, 2026 at about 1:01 p.m. PT (after the U.S. market close in New York), followed by a management video interview. [25]
That date matters because it will:
- Update investors on advertising momentum and engagement trends
- Clarify how Netflix intends to balance organic growth priorities with the capital and leadership bandwidth required by a mega-merger
- Potentially reset the narrative if guidance is strong—or compound uncertainty if management turns more cautious
Advertising tailwinds are getting harder to ignore
A broader industry data point is reinforcing Netflix’s ad-tier strategy. The Guardian reported that in the UK, ad-supported streaming plans have become more popular than ad-free packages for the first time, reflecting consumer price sensitivity and the growing scale of streaming advertising. [26]
For Netflix investors, the implication is that the company’s ad business has more runway—but it is also entering a more competitive, metrics-driven marketplace where ad-tech execution and live programming inventory can matter more.
New content formats: video podcasts
Netflix is also expanding its content funnel beyond traditional series and films. Spotify announced a partnership that will bring select Spotify Studios and The Ringer video podcasts to Netflix in early 2026 (initially in the U.S.). [27]
It’s not likely to “move the needle” near-term the way a Warner-sized deal might, but it fits the strategy of increasing hours watched and broadening the programming mix—an issue at the heart of the Netflix vs. YouTube engagement debate. [28]
Is the stock market open right now? Yes—here’s what to know into the next session
Because it’s 1:05 p.m. ET, U.S. equities are in the regular session (NYSE/Nasdaq normally trade 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET), and both exchanges are open today following the Christmas holiday. [29]
Still, investors should treat today as a liquidity-light environment—big moves can happen on relatively small volume.
What NFLX investors should watch into the close (and for Monday, Dec. 29)
- Deal headlines (anytime risk): New statements from Paramount, Warner, or regulators can reprice completion odds quickly. [30]
- Financing signals: Any new color on syndication demand for the remaining bridge financing can influence how markets perceive Netflix’s cost of capital. [31]
- Year-end market tone: Reuters notes investors are watching policy signals and upcoming Fed communications next week; thin trading can amplify reactions. [32]
- Earnings positioning: With Q4 results coming Jan. 20, 2026, expectation-setting in the next few weeks can be a bigger driver than usual. [33]
Bottom line for Netflix stock today
Netflix stock is modestly higher in midday trading, but the bigger story is not today’s tick-by-tick move—it’s the market’s attempt to price a company that is simultaneously:
- still producing strong cash flow and guiding to meaningful profitability, [34]
- while pursuing one of the largest media acquisitions in history, [35]
- under a spotlight of antitrust scrutiny and political noise, [36]
- and facing a widening split among analysts on whether the risk/reward has improved or deteriorated. [37]
For investors heading into the next session, the practical approach is to treat NFLX as a two-track story: near-term merger probability swings and long-term operating performance. The market can forgive one, but rarely both.
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. ir.netflix.net, 5. ir.netflix.net, 6. ir.netflix.net, 7. ir.netflix.net, 8. ir.netflix.net, 9. ir.netflix.net, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.businessinsider.com, 16. apnews.com, 17. apnews.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. apnews.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.latimes.com, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. ir.netflix.net, 26. www.theguardian.com, 27. newsroom.spotify.com, 28. www.latimes.com, 29. www.nyse.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. ir.netflix.net, 34. www.sec.gov, 35. ir.netflix.net, 36. apnews.com, 37. www.tipranks.com
