NEW YORK — Dec. 26, 2025 (1:18 p.m. ET) — Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) shares were trading at about $31.31, down roughly 4.4% on the day, in a notably quiet, post-holiday session where low liquidity can exaggerate moves in individual names.
The pullback comes even as the broader market hovers near record territory during the so-called “Santa Claus rally” window, with investors balancing year-end positioning against a steady drumbeat of vaccine-policy headlines and pipeline expectations that will shape 2026 for vaccine makers like Moderna. [1]
Moderna stock price today: the quick snapshot
As of early afternoon in New York:
- Price: ~$31.31
- Day range: ~$31.24 to $32.75
- Volume: ~2.6 million shares (light versus many normal sessions, consistent with the holiday week)
Today’s decline stands out because the broader tape has been relatively steady in thin trading. Reuters described U.S. indexes as near all-time highs in post-Christmas dealing, a backdrop that can make stock-specific selling (or profit-taking) look more dramatic than it would on a normal-volume day. [2]
Why is Moderna stock down today?
There’s no single, clean headline driving Moderna’s drop on Dec. 26 — and that, paradoxically, is often the story in late-December trading.
Barron’s flagged Moderna among notable decliners without a clear catalyst, noting the move as part of a difficult year for the name. [3]
In practical terms, today’s weakness likely reflects a blend of factors that have been hanging over vaccine stocks:
1) Thin liquidity + year-end positioning.
Major institutions are often lightly staffed the week after Christmas, and volumes can be muted. That can widen bid-ask spreads and amplify downside if sellers hit the tape. Reuters and the AP both emphasized that trading volume is expected to be light in the holiday stretch. [4]
2) A still-choppy U.S. vaccine policy backdrop.
In December, Reuters reported that U.S. regulators were investigating deaths potentially related to COVID vaccines across age groups as part of a safety review, and that the debate over labeling and oversight has been politically charged. [5]
Later, Reuters reported Bloomberg News citing FDA Commissioner Marty Makary saying the FDA had no plans to add a boxed (“black box”) warning — after earlier reporting suggested such a step was being considered. That sequence has kept uncertainty elevated for investors trying to handicap future vaccine demand and regulatory friction. [6]
3) Moderna’s “transition story” is still being priced in.
The company is working to convince markets it can evolve from a COVID-era revenue surge into a multi-product commercial vaccine business and, longer term, an oncology and rare-disease platform. That shift is real — but it’s also messy, and the stock tends to react sharply to any hint that timelines are slipping.
The big fundamental story: Moderna’s 2026–2028 plan (and what changed)
At its 2025 Analyst Day, Moderna outlined a three-year strategy aimed at stabilizing the commercial base, tightening spending, and funding a broader pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel said the company expects to build a larger seasonal vaccine franchise and invest cash generated into oncology and rare disease programs, targeting up to 10% revenue growth in 2026. [7]
Key takeaways investors have been digesting:
A push to expand Moderna’s “seasonal” vaccine franchise
Moderna said it expects to expand its seasonal vaccine franchise from three to up to six approved products by 2028, leaning on respiratory vaccines plus potential new launches. [8]
Cost discipline and a “cash breakeven” goal
Moderna also guided to lower expected cash costs — approximately $4.2 billion in 2026 and $3.5–$3.9 billion in 2027 — and reiterated a target of cash breakeven in 2028. [9]
Non-dilutive financing: a $1.5 billion term loan facility
The company disclosed a five-year term loan facility up to $1.5 billion from Ares Management Credit Funds, describing it as non-dilutive financing that adds balance-sheet flexibility. Moderna also updated projected 2025 year-end cash and investments to $7.1–$7.6 billion (tied partly to an initial loan draw). [10]
Pipeline reality check: near-term catalysts and notable cuts
Moderna’s pipeline matters because the market is essentially asking: How quickly can new products offset declining COVID vaccine revenue?
From the Analyst Day update:
What Moderna says is progressing
- mNEXSPIKE (mRNA-1283) (COVID-19 vaccine): Moderna said it is approved in the U.S. and Canada, with additional approvals targeted in 2026 in several regions. [11]
- mRESVIA (mRNA-1345) (RSV vaccine): Moderna said it is approved in multiple countries for older adults and certain at-risk adults. [12]
- mRNA-1010 (seasonal influenza vaccine): Moderna said it expects to complete submissions for approval in the U.S., EU, Canada, and Australia by January 2026 — a near-term milestone for investors watching whether Moderna can compete in flu. [13]
- mRNA-1083 (flu + COVID combination): Moderna said the filing is under review at the EMA, with a Canada submission made in 2025, and that it is awaiting further guidance from the U.S. FDA on refiling. [14]
- mRNA-1403 (norovirus): Moderna said the Phase 3 study needed additional case accrual and is enrolling a second Northern Hemisphere season (2025–2026), with an interim analysis expected in 2026. [15]
- Oncology (mRNA-4157 / intismeran autogene with Merck): Moderna highlighted multiple Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies across tumor types. [16]
What Moderna discontinued (and why it matters)
In a move that surprised some long-term bulls, Moderna said it discontinued four programs, including its congenital CMV program (mRNA-1647) (while continuing evaluation of the same candidate in a Phase 2 transplant-patient trial). It also said its HSV and VZV programs would not advance to Phase 3, and a GSD1a program would not advance to Phase 2. [17]
For investors, these discontinuations are a double-edged signal: they reflect portfolio discipline and cost focus, but they also remove potential future “blockbuster” narratives — which can compress valuation expectations even if the near-term cash picture improves.
The news flow investors are trading: CEPI funding, U.S. contract cancellations, and regulatory scrutiny
CEPI funds a Moderna pandemic flu Phase 3 trial
One of the most market-relevant December headlines: Reuters reported that CEPI agreed to provide up to $54.3 million to support a pivotal Phase 3 trial for Moderna’s pandemic influenza vaccine candidate, with the study expected to begin in early 2026 in the U.K. and U.S. [18]
Importantly for global-health investors, Reuters also reported that under the agreement Moderna would reserve a portion of production for low- and middle-income countries. [19]
Earlier in 2025: the U.S. canceled a major Moderna pandemic-flu contract
That CEPI funding arrived after a very different headline earlier this year. The Associated Press reported the U.S. government canceled $766 million awarded to Moderna to develop a vaccine against potential pandemic influenza viruses (including H5N1), adding uncertainty around government-backed demand for certain programs. [20]
Combination vaccine timing got pushed out
In May, Reuters reported Moderna withdrew an application seeking approval for its flu/COVID combination vaccine, saying it wanted to wait for efficacy data from its influenza shot — and pointed to heightened regulatory scrutiny of vaccine approvals. [21]
What Wall Street is forecasting: targets are scattered, sentiment is cautious
Analyst views on Moderna remain unusually dispersed — a sign the market is still debating whether Moderna becomes a diversified vaccine-and-therapeutics company or stays tethered to a volatile COVID demand cycle.
Here are a few snapshots from widely followed aggregators:
- Fintel lists an average one-year price target of about $37.59, with forecasts ranging from roughly $17 to $142 (a very wide range that reflects disagreement and differing model assumptions). [22]
- Business Insider reports Moderna has a consensus rating of Hold and displays a large spread of price forecasts and ratings across covering analysts (including recent “maintained hold” actions from Morgan Stanley and Jefferies, and a “sell” from Bank of America in late 2025). [23]
- MarketBeat recently characterized sentiment as bearish, citing an average price target around $29.21. [24]
The responsible takeaway: don’t treat any single “consensus target” as a compass. The stock is being driven by (a) policy/regulatory uncertainty, (b) evidence of commercial traction beyond COVID, and (c) whether the pipeline can deliver approvals on credible timelines.
Technical and trading view: improving relative strength, but still not “in gear”
Investor’s Business Daily reported Moderna’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating improved to 73 from 67, suggesting better performance versus the broader market over the past year — but still below the 80+ level that many momentum investors look for. [25]
Recent trading has also been volatile. StockAnalysis data shows sharp swings over the past several sessions, including a large decline on Dec. 23 followed by continued choppiness into today’s holiday-thin session. [26]
What investors should know before the next session
Because today is a normal trading day — and the market is currently open — the immediate “next step” is the 4:00 p.m. ET close and how Moderna trades into the finish. The NYSE’s core session runs from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. [27]
Looking ahead, the next regular session after Friday is Monday, Dec. 29, and there are several practical things Moderna shareholders (and would-be buyers) should keep on their radar:
- Macro catalysts can matter more in thin markets. Reuters highlighted the market’s focus on the Fed path and flagged that light volumes can exaggerate moves; the Fed’s meeting minutes are expected next week, which can shift risk appetite across growth/biotech. [28]
- Expect headline-driven volatility in vaccine names. Regulatory stories have moved this group quickly in December, including reports and walk-backs around boxed warnings and broader vaccine oversight. [29]
- Watch Moderna’s near-term “proof points.” The most concrete upcoming milestone Moderna itself pointed to is the planned completion of mRNA-1010 flu vaccine submissions by January 2026 — a catalyst that can influence sentiment if investors see a credible path to a larger respiratory franchise. [30]
- Remember the “policy + demand” equation. Moderna’s revenue still depends heavily on respiratory vaccine uptake, which can be influenced by official recommendations, eligibility policies, and public sentiment.
Bottom line: Moderna is trading the gap between “platform potential” and “policy risk”
Moderna stock’s drop today looks less like a verdict on a single event and more like the market continuing to price a complicated transition: cost cuts and a clearer multi-year plan on one side, and unpredictable vaccine policy plus uneven commercial traction on the other.
If Moderna can execute on its stated 2026 filings and show expanding demand beyond COVID, the narrative can improve quickly — but as 2025 has demonstrated, this is not a sleepy stock, especially when the broader market is thin and headlines travel at meme-speed. [31]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. apnews.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. fintel.io, 23. markets.businessinsider.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.investors.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.nyse.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. www.nasdaq.com
