NEW YORK — As of 3:35 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) was trading at $349.03, up about 0.49% on the day, after opening at $346.99 and ranging between $346.20 and $350.00 in the session. Volume stood near 1.05 million shares, a reminder that liquidity is often thinner than usual in the final stretch of the year.
That “thin tape” matters today. Wall Street has been coasting near record highs in a light, post‑holiday session after a multi‑day rally, and traders are watching whether the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window can stay intact into early January. [1]
For Home Depot investors, the backdrop is a blend of year‑end market mechanics and a very company‑specific debate: when (and how strongly) the housing and big‑ticket renovation cycle reaccelerates—the key variable behind management’s newly laid out fiscal 2026 framework.
HD stock price check: where Home Depot trades into the close
Here’s the most relevant tape-reading snapshot heading into the final minutes of Friday’s regular session:
- Price: $349.03
- Day change: +$1.69 (+0.49%)
- Day range: $346.20 – $350.00
- Open: $346.99
- Volume: ~1.05M shares (as of the latest update)
With New York at 3:35 p.m. ET, the U.S. equity market is still in the regular session (the NYSE’s core hours are 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET). If you’re reading this after the bell, the key practical point is to focus on the closing print and any after‑hours headlines that can reset sentiment for Monday. [2]
The broader market today: low volume, near highs, and “Santa Claus rally” watch
Today’s session has the feel of a low‑catalyst, low‑participation market—exactly the setup that can create cleaner trends or random whipsaws, depending on flows.
Reuters described the day as a light-volume post‑Christmas session with the major indexes hovering near all‑time highs after a five-session rally. Strategist Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, framed it as a market “catching our breath,” while noting the calendar tailwind of the Santa Claus rally period (the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of the next). [3]
AP also emphasized just how muted the participation is—reporting NYSE share volume around one-third of normal—with stocks drifting slightly lower in afternoon trading. [4]
Why this matters for HD: Home Depot tends to trade as a high-quality housing/consumer cyclical bellwether. In low-liquidity sessions, the stock can move more on macro positioning (rates, housing sentiment, cyclical rotation) than on company-specific news—especially when there’s no fresh earnings release.
The headline overhang: Home Depot’s fiscal 2026 outlook reset expectations
The biggest “current” fundamental anchor for HD is not something that happened today—it’s what happened December 9, when the company used its Investor & Analyst Conference to reaffirm fiscal 2025 guidance and issue a preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook. [5]
What Home Depot guided for 2026
In its preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook, Home Depot said it expects:
- Home improvement market:-1% to +1%
- Comparable sales:~flat to +2%
- Total sales growth:~2.5% to 4.5%
- Operating margin:~12.4% to 12.6% (adjusted ~12.8% to 13.0%)
- EPS:~flat to +4% (including adjusted EPS flat to +4%) [6]
That outlook is explicitly cautious on the idea of a quick housing-led snapback.
How Wall Street interpreted it
Reuters reported that the company’s fiscal 2026 view came in below analysts’ expectations on key lines like same-store sales and adjusted EPS growth, with Home Depot pointing to weaker DIY demand and softer large-ticket spending. Reuters also quoted CFO Richard McPhail saying the company expects to outpace market growth once housing pressures correct. [7]
The Wall Street Journal likewise highlighted a guarded 2026 outlook tied to a weak housing market, while noting the company laid out a “stronger housing” recovery case with higher growth outcomes. [8]
The “market recovery case”
Home Depot didn’t just give one scenario—it also provided a market recovery case that assumes a healthier backdrop, including:
- Sales growth: ~5% to 6%
- Comparable sales growth: ~4% to 5%
- EPS growth:mid‑to‑high single digits [9]
Investor takeaway: HD is effectively telling the market that the next leg higher depends less on cost-cutting and more on the timing of housing normalization—activity, affordability, and homeowner willingness to greenlight big projects.
The most recent earnings: Q3 FY2025 showed stability, not a breakout
Home Depot’s last quarterly report (Q3 fiscal 2025, released Nov. 18, 2025) is the other major pillar investors are still trading off.
Key reported numbers included:
- Sales:$41.4B, up 2.8% year over year
- Comparable sales:+0.2% (U.S. comps +0.1%)
- Adjusted EPS:$3.74 (vs. $3.78 a year earlier) [10]
CEO Ted Decker pointed to pressure from the lack of storm activity and continued housing-related uncertainty impacting home-improvement demand. [11]
Investopedia’s coverage of the quarter underscored that the adjusted EPS figure fell below the Visible Alpha consensus even as revenue came in above estimates—another “mixed” result consistent with a slow, uneven housing-linked cycle. [12]
Guidance for fiscal 2025: sales up, earnings down
In the same Nov. 18 release, Home Depot updated fiscal 2025 guidance (its current year), projecting:
- Total sales growth: ~3.0%
- Comparable sales:slightly positive (comparable 52-week period)
- Diluted EPS:~6% decline from fiscal 2024
- Adjusted diluted EPS:~5% decline from fiscal 2024 [13]
This is one of the most important realities behind HD’s stock narrative in late 2025: revenue can grow through mix, share gains, and acquisitions—while earnings remain under pressure due to category softness, demand mix, and cost structure.
The “Pro” push and acquisitions: why GMS and SRS are central to the thesis
Home Depot is trying to win the next cycle by leaning harder into professional customers—builders, remodelers, and specialty trades—whose purchase patterns can differ from DIY shoppers and can be more resilient when housing turnover slows.
A major step in that strategy has been acquisitions:
GMS: deeper into building materials distribution
AP reported that Home Depot moved to acquire GMS Inc. for roughly $4.3B in equity value (about $5.5B including debt), expanding further into building supply distribution—after its earlier move to buy SRS Distribution. [14]
Reuters also described the deal as being executed through Home Depot-owned SRS Distribution, positioning the company to better serve pro contractors with a larger distribution footprint. [15]
Home Depot’s own Q3 results indicated that the recent GMS acquisition contributed approximately $900 million of sales in the quarter (about eight weeks), and management’s fiscal 2025 guidance expects GMS to contribute about $2 billion of incremental sales for the year. [16]
Why it matters for the stock: In a housing market that’s not roaring, investors often reward retailers that can demonstrate share gains and structural growth vectors (like pro distribution) even when DIY big-ticket demand is muted.
Dividend: a steady anchor while the cycle works through
Home Depot continues to return cash to shareholders through dividends. The company declared a $2.30 quarterly dividend (paid Dec. 18, 2025, to shareholders of record Dec. 4, 2025), and noted it was the 155th consecutive quarter it has paid a cash dividend. [17]
At today’s price (~$349), that dividend rate implies an annualized payout of about $9.20 per share, or roughly a 2.6% yield (mathematically derived from the declared payout and the current price). [18]
Analyst forecasts: price targets skew higher, but valuation views differ
Analyst sentiment on HD is a mix of “quality compounder” confidence and near-term macro skepticism.
- MarketWatch’s analyst survey shows an average recommendation of Overweight and an average target price around $401 (with dozens of analyst ratings). [19]
- Against today’s ~$349 price, that implies roughly 15% upside if the consensus target is realized (simple arithmetic based on the figures above).
- Nasdaq.com’s coverage of recent analyst commentary (including Wells Fargo and Piper Sandler notes) also points to a one‑year average price target in the low $400s, with a wide range between low and high estimates. [20]
- Morningstar has been more valuation-disciplined. In a post‑earnings note, Morningstar said it maintained a $335 fair value estimate and viewed the stock as fairly valued around that time. [21]
How to reconcile this: Wall Street targets often assume some degree of cyclical normalization over 12 months, while valuation frameworks like Morningstar’s can be more sensitive to margin structure, cycle positioning, and long-term cash flow assumptions.
What investors should watch before the next session
Because it’s 3:35 p.m. ET right now, investors have two “near-term” horizons: the final minutes into Friday’s close, and the next full session (Monday).
1) The close matters more than usual in thin holiday tape
When volume is light, closing auctions can sway the final print. If you trade HD actively, use limit orders and be mindful of spreads—especially into year-end. The broader market is still in a low-volume holiday mode. [22]
2) Watch rates and housing sentiment as the core macro driver
Home Depot’s own framing for 2026 explicitly ties outcomes to a sluggish home improvement market range (-1% to +1%) and a potential recovery case if housing activity improves. [23]
That means Monday’s “what moved the stock?” answer will often come back to mortgage-rate expectations, housing activity signals, and consumer willingness to fund larger renovation projects.
3) Revisit the two-scenario 2026 framework
Management has effectively given investors a “base case” and a “recovery case.” Before the next session, it’s worth asking which one the market is pricing:
- Base case: comps flat to +2%, EPS flat to +4% [24]
- Recovery case: comps +4% to +5%, EPS mid-to-high single digits [25]
4) Near-term catalysts are more narrative than calendar-driven
Home Depot’s next earnings date has not been confirmed, but several market calendars estimate a late-February 2026 report based on historical timing. Treat that as an estimate—not a company announcement. [26]
Bottom line: HD is trading the cycle, but building for the rebound
Home Depot stock is finishing the year in a market that’s near highs but trading lightly, while the company itself is navigating a housing-linked slowdown with modest sales growth, pressured earnings, and a strategy that leans into pro customers and distribution. [27]
For investors, the key question isn’t whether Home Depot is a durable franchise—the company is still positioning itself as a share gainer in a massive addressable market—but how quickly the housing and big-project environment normalizes and whether HD’s “Pro” buildout (including GMS/SRS) can deliver incremental growth even before that recovery is fully visible. [28]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. apnews.com, 5. ir.homedepot.com, 6. ir.homedepot.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.wsj.com, 9. ir.homedepot.com, 10. ir.homedepot.com, 11. ir.homedepot.com, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. ir.homedepot.com, 14. apnews.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. ir.homedepot.com, 17. ir.homedepot.com, 18. ir.homedepot.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.morningstar.com, 22. apnews.com, 23. ir.homedepot.com, 24. ir.homedepot.com, 25. ir.homedepot.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. ir.homedepot.com
