New York — As of 5:04 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $87,438, down about 0.5% on the day, after swinging between roughly $86,670 and $89,416.
The timing matters: U.S. stocks just finished a muted, post-Christmas session near record levels, and the New York Stock Exchange’s core trading window (9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET) is now closed—meaning spot Bitcoin ETFs and many institutional “on-ramps” to BTC are offline until the next session, even though Bitcoin itself continues to trade around the clock. [1]
Below is what’s driving Bitcoin price action late today, what the latest ETF and derivatives signals are saying, and what investors should watch before the next U.S. market open.
Why Bitcoin is moving now: post-holiday markets, thin liquidity, and cross-asset signals
Today’s tape had a familiar year-end feel: light volumes, narrower participation, and price moves that can look “bigger than the news.” Reuters described U.S. trading as muted after Christmas, with major indexes barely changed but still hovering near record peaks. [2]
That broader risk backdrop matters for BTC because the same macro factors dominating equities and rates are also shaping crypto positioning:
- Rate-cut expectations are still a central narrative, with the Fed’s most recent move lowering the federal funds target range by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75%—a policy shift that has continued to ripple through the dollar, yields, and risk appetite. [3]
- The dollar has been under pressure, and Reuters noted the dollar index near 98.03 today—part of the “rates and leadership outlook” debate markets are carrying into year-end. [4]
- Safe-haven demand has been visible elsewhere, with Reuters reporting record highs in gold and silver during the same session—another sign investors are balancing “risk-on” equity performance with hedging behavior into 2026. [5]
Bitcoin’s late-day dip also showed up in broader FX-market coverage, with Reuters noting BTC down around half a percent in a story focused on thin year-end trading. [6]
Wall Street closed near record highs — and that affects Bitcoin even when BTC trades 24/7
U.S. stocks ended Friday only slightly lower, near record peaks. Reuters reported the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq finishing with small declines that snapped a short winning streak but left indexes up on the week and still positioned for strong year-end gains. [7]
Here’s the practical Bitcoin angle once the bell has rung:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs stop trading when the stock market closes. BTC does not.
- If Bitcoin moves meaningfully over the weekend, ETF holders can’t react until Monday, which can create gap risk at the next open (up or down).
- Liquidity conditions are often thinner around holidays, and thin liquidity tends to amplify both rallies and selloffs across risk assets. Reuters highlighted muted post-holiday conditions today, a dynamic that often extends into the final trading days of the year. [8]
The NYSE’s official schedule underscores the timing: core trading ends at 4:00 p.m. ET. [9]
ETF flows remain a key swing factor for Bitcoin price
The latest: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw broad outflows heading into the holiday break
The most recent published flow data (through Dec. 24) shows net outflows across the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF complex, with no funds posting inflows that day and total net flow around -$175.3 million (per Farside Investors’ daily table). [10]
That matters because a growing share of marginal institutional demand for BTC has been funneled through ETFs—and when flows reverse, the market feels it quickly.
The bigger 2025 story: IBIT dominance, slowing inflows, and uneven profitability
A detailed year-end analysis from ETF.com (data through Dec. 23) described 2025 as a year of strong net inflows but weak performance, highlighting that:
- U.S.-listed crypto ETFs took in about $34.1 billion year-to-date (through Dec. 23). [11]
- BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for roughly $25.1 billion of that. [12]
- Excluding IBIT, spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively showed net outflows in 2025, and inflows slowed sharply over the last three months of the year. [13]
This helps explain why traders are so focused on daily ETF flow prints: in a market where one vehicle can dominate the marginal bid, “flow days” can become “price days.”
Derivatives are flashing a clear warning: a massive options expiry and heavy downside hedging
$23 billion in Bitcoin options and elevated volatility signals
Into year-end, derivatives positioning has been unusually prominent. A Bloomberg report syndicated by InvestmentNews said around $23 billion in Bitcoin options contracts were set to expire around this late-December window, representing more than half of Deribit’s open interest—a setup that can amplify volatility when liquidity is thin. [14]
The same report quoted Nick Forster (Derive.xyz founder) warning that markets were “sliding” into the New Year with prices “on a knife’s edge,” while describing bearish positioning (including volatility and skew) that implied traders were paying up for downside protection. [15]
The “magnet” level traders keep circling: $85,000
Two separate strands of reporting converged on the same level:
- InvestmentNews/Bloomberg described heavy put exposure around $85,000, citing estimates that this strike held substantial open interest and could act as a “magnet” into expiry. [16]
- Reuters also reported a sizable concentration of puts at $85,000 for the Dec. 26 expiry, and noted that derivatives indicators (including skew) pointed to a market paying more for downside protection. [17]
In other words: even if BTC is trading closer to $87K–$88K now, $85K has been the options market’s line in the sand.
Not all analysts are one-sided bearish
Reuters also cited Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell suggesting the near-term risk/reward looked “more balanced” after oversold signals emerged, even as broader options positioning leaned defensive. [18]
Forecasts and expert takes: what strategists are saying about Bitcoin into 2026
Standard Chartered: lowered targets and a sharper focus on ETF demand
In a widely referenced recalibration, Reuters reported that Standard Chartered cut its end‑2025 Bitcoin target to $100,000 (from a much higher prior view). Reuters also quoted Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, arguing that buying by Bitcoin “digital asset treasury” companies was likely over and that future gains could be driven primarily by ETF buying. [19]
That’s a major framing shift: it implies flows, not hype cycles, may increasingly dictate the market’s next leg.
Options-implied probabilities: a cautious base case
Reuters cited Derive.xyz analysis putting the probability of Bitcoin ending 2025 below $90,000 at about 50%, versus around a 30% chance above $100,000 at the time of that report—another sign that, in derivatives pricing, upside was not the consensus base case. [20]
Stock-market crossover risk: MSCI review of “Bitcoin treasury” companies could hit sentiment
Even for Bitcoin investors who never touch crypto-linked stocks, equity-index mechanics can spill into crypto narratives—especially in a year where “Bitcoin on the balance sheet” became a high-profile trade.
Reuters reported that MSCI is set to decide by Jan. 15 whether to exclude companies whose digital asset holdings are 50% or more of total assets from key indexes, after client questions and a consultation process. Analysts told Reuters other index providers could follow, potentially affecting demand for shares of crypto-heavy treasury firms. [21]
Why this matters for Bitcoin price:
- If passive index demand for those stocks declines, it can tighten capital-raising channels for some firms that have funded token buying via equity issuance. Reuters described this as a potential “chill” on the sector. [22]
- The narrative impact can be immediate: even when the underlying BTC market structure is unchanged, risk sentiment around “institutional crypto” can shift quickly on headlines about index inclusion, regulation, or litigation.
What investors should know before the next U.S. market session
Because it’s 5:04 p.m. ET in New York, the NYSE core session is closed and spot Bitcoin ETFs won’t trade again until the next session (Bitcoin will). [23]
Here are the most practical, market-relevant points to monitor before the next opening bell:
1) Watch weekend Bitcoin moves for ETF gap risk
If BTC breaks out of the recent band—especially around options-watched levels like $85K on the downside—ETFs may reopen with sharp price gaps on Monday. [24]
2) Keep an eye on ETF flow momentum once markets reopen
The latest available daily data shows broad outflows into Dec. 24, and ETF.com documented a late‑year slowdown in inflows. If flows stabilize or flip positive again, that’s one of the cleaner catalysts bulls can point to; if outflows persist, it can weigh on any bounce. [25]
3) Macro calendar catalysts can spill into Bitcoin via rates and the dollar
A few scheduled U.S. events next week are closely watched by rate traders, which can feed into BTC risk appetite:
- Pending Home Sales (Nov.) — Monday, Dec. 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET (per the National Association of Realtors). [26]
- FOMC Minutes (meeting of Dec. 9–10) — Tuesday, Dec. 30 at 2:00 p.m. ET (Federal Reserve calendar). [27]
- Chicago PMI — Tuesday, Dec. 30 at 9:45 a.m. ET (MNI’s publication calendar lists Dec. 30 at 9:45 a.m. ET). [28]
With the Fed’s policy rate now 3.50%–3.75%, anything that shifts the market’s expected path for cuts in 2026 can ripple into both equities and crypto. [29]
4) Expect thinner liquidity into year-end
Reuters framed today’s session as muted and post-holiday. Thin liquidity doesn’t predict direction, but it often widens the range of outcomes—especially if a headline hits when fewer traders are active. [30]
The bottom line for Bitcoin price heading into the weekend
Bitcoin ends the U.S. stock-market day near $87K, down modestly but still inside a broader late‑December battleground shaped by three forces:
- ETF flows that have recently leaned negative, reducing the market’s “steady bid.” [31]
- Derivatives pressure around a major options window, with outsized hedging near $85,000 and elevated volatility signals. [32]
- Macro cross-currents from rates, the dollar, and year-end positioning, as Wall Street trades near records but with a cautious, hedged tone visible in other assets. [33]
For investors, the key near-term question isn’t whether Bitcoin can trade on a weekend—it can. It’s whether Monday’s reopening of ETF trading and instituti
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.federalreserve.gov, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.nyse.com, 10. farside.co.uk, 11. www.etf.com, 12. www.etf.com, 13. www.etf.com, 14. www.investmentnews.com, 15. www.investmentnews.com, 16. www.investmentnews.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.nyse.com, 24. www.investmentnews.com, 25. farside.co.uk, 26. www.nar.realtor, 27. www.federalreserve.gov, 28. www.mnimarkets.com, 29. www.federalreserve.gov, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. farside.co.uk, 32. www.investmentnews.com, 33. www.reuters.com
