As of 5:04 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, XRP is trading around $1.85, down about 1% over the past 24 hours, with roughly $2.4B in 24-hour trading volume and a market cap near $112B. [1]
That timing matters: U.S. stocks have finished the regular session, and the market is now in the post-close stretch (after-hours in many names, but the main cash session is done). Crypto, of course, keeps trading—meaning XRP can continue reacting tonight and through the weekend to macro headlines, ETF flow chatter, and liquidity conditions even while the NYSE is dark.
Wall Street check: a quiet post-holiday close, but the “Santa Claus rally” window is open
U.S. equities ended a light-volume, post-Christmas session only slightly lower, snapping a short winning streak while still logging weekly gains. The Dow closed at 48,710.97 (-0.04%), the S&P 500 at 6,929.94 (-0.03%), and the Nasdaq at 23,593.10 (-0.09%). [2]
Strategists also pointed out that the market has entered the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” period—typically defined as the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year—which runs through January 5 this cycle. [3]
For XRP traders, this stock-market backdrop matters because—despite crypto’s unique drivers—risk appetite still tends to spill across asset classes, especially when liquidity is thin and positioning is crowded into year-end narratives.
Macro mood: rate-cut expectations and a softer dollar are part of the crypto equation
Several cross-currents shaping equities are also relevant to crypto pricing:
- Investors are focused on how quickly the Federal Reserve could cut rates again in 2026 and what the Fed’s internal debate looked like at the latest meeting. Reuters notes the Fed has moved its benchmark rate down to 3.50%–3.75% after cuts across late 2025, and that the meeting minutes due Tuesday could add clarity. [4]
- The broader markets conversation also includes the dollar’s recent weakness and the idea that monetary policy (and even leadership speculation at the Fed) could influence 2026 pricing across risk assets. [5]
This is where XRP, Bitcoin, and the broader altcoin complex often become “macro mirrors”: when markets tilt toward easier financial conditions, crypto frequently benefits—but it can also swing sharply on disappointment.
XRP’s “2025 story” is no longer only about charts—regulatory and institutional catalysts are in the mix
XRP’s price action in late 2025 is increasingly interpreted through a regulatory-and-institutional adoption lens, not just classic retail momentum. A few headline drivers continue to shape how investors frame XRP:
1) The SEC case is over—but with important details traders still debate
In August, the SEC said it ended its case against Ripple, with both sides agreeing to dismiss appeals—leaving a $125 million fine intact and preserving an injunction tied to institutional sales. [6]
Earlier in the year, Ripple had signaled it was pursuing a settlement structure that would have reduced the fine to $50 million, but a judge later refused to modify the penalty and injunction, and the appeals were ultimately dropped with the original terms still standing. [7]
Why this still matters for price: markets often price “regulatory clarity” in waves. Even when litigation ends, traders keep reassessing what it means for U.S. exchange access, institutional participation, and product approvals tied to XRP.
2) Ripple’s U.S. banking push is becoming a real narrative, not a rumor
In December, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) announced conditional approvals for multiple national trust bank charter applications, including Ripple National Trust Bank. [8]
Axios noted these charters don’t function like traditional deposit-taking banks (no FDIC-insured consumer deposits), but they can support custody, settlement, and fiduciary-style services, and they mark a meaningful regulatory step in the post-stablecoin legislation environment. [9]
Ripple’s own announcement framed the OCC step as expanding its regulatory footprint and positioning stablecoin reserves under robust oversight, with CEO Brad Garlinghouse calling it “a massive step forward.” [10]
3) RLUSD and TradFi plumbing: Ripple is leaning into “infrastructure,” not just token hype
Ripple’s $1.25B agreement to acquire prime broker Hidden Road gave traders a concrete institutional angle: Hidden Road clears $3 trillion annually for 300+ institutional clients, and Ripple positioned the deal as a bridge between crypto rails and traditional market infrastructure—while highlighting that RLUSD is used as collateral in the prime brokerage stack. [11]
That matters indirectly to XRP sentiment because the bull case increasingly argues that Ripple’s ecosystem is working toward deeper regulated distribution—where XRP becomes part of a broader product-and-infrastructure story.
XRP ETFs and “wrapper demand”: flows can support price, but the structure matters
One of the biggest late-2025 shifts across crypto markets has been the continued expansion of ETF access.
The SEC’s ETF framework is changing the game for “what can get listed”
Investopedia reported that the SEC approved generic listing standards that can fast-track certain crypto exchange-traded products, reducing the need for one-off, long approval processes—especially when an asset has had a regulated futures market for at least six months and meets other criteria. [12]
That intersects directly with XRP because CME launched cash-settled XRP futures (May 2025, pending regulatory approval) as part of its push to broaden institutional crypto tools. [13]
“Spot XRP ETF inflows” are a bullish talking point—but investors should watch the weekly pace
Market analysts have been tracking whether ETF demand is strong enough to offset broader risk-off waves. For example:
- FXEmpire cited SoSoValue-based flow tracking showing weekly inflows that have at times slowed (e.g., $82.04M in one reported week) and discussed key psychological levels like $2.00 as a pivot for sentiment. [14]
- An Investing.com analysis published in mid-December argued that spot XRP ETFs had accumulated about $1B+ in net inflows early in their lifecycle and suggested that ETF penetration versus XRP’s total market cap could imply “headroom” if institutional adoption expands further—while also cautioning that macro risk-off regimes can still dominate in the short run. [15]
There’s also a product-structure nuance sophisticated investors emphasize: not every “XRP ETF” is identical in regulatory treatment and protections. Grayscale, for instance, notes that GXRP is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (and therefore isn’t subject to the same regulations as 40‑Act funds), and it highlights heightened volatility and risk. [16]
Not every issuer is convinced the XRP-ETF trade is a gold mine
In a reminder that the ETF business is competitive (and margins can compress fast), Reuters reported that CoinShares withdrew plans for several ETFs, including an XRP ETF, to focus on higher-margin opportunities ahead of its U.S. listing plans. [17]
XRP price levels: what the latest analyses and forecasts are watching now
Two points can be true at once for XRP in late 2025:
- The long-term narrative has strengthened (lawsuit closure, bank charter momentum, institutional rails).
- The near-term tape can still be choppy—especially into year-end, when liquidity thins and macro catalysts (rates, dollar, equities volatility) can override coin-specific developments.
Here are the levels and scenarios that current market commentary is focused on:
- Support zone near $1.85–$1.90: This area is frequently highlighted as a near-term “line in the sand” by analysts tracking ETF flows and price structure. [18]
- $2.00 as the psychological pivot: Some analyses argue that reclaiming and holding $2 could shift momentum toward higher targets, while repeated failures can keep traders defensive. [19]
- Upside targets in the $2.5–$3.0 area: FXEmpire discussed a scenario where a move above key resistance could open a path toward $2.5 and $3.0 over the coming weeks, while acknowledging downside risk if support fails. [20]
- Zooming out: XRP is still trading materially below its peak. CoinGecko notes XRP is roughly 49% below its all-time high, and CoinGecko data cited in a year-end review pegged a $3.65 peak as a reference point for 2025’s surge. [21]
Important reminder: forecasts based on technicals and flows are not guarantees—they’re scenario maps. In thin liquidity periods, price can overshoot both support and resistance levels quickly.
If you’re investing in XRP now: what to know before the next U.S. stock-market session
Because it’s after the regular close in New York, here’s what investors commonly watch between now and the next full cash session (the next trading day after Friday is Monday, Dec. 29, barring special exchange notices):
1) Expect thinner liquidity and sharper swings into year-end
Reuters highlighted how light volumes can exaggerate moves—something that applies to both equities and crypto. [22]
For XRP specifically, weekend conditions can amplify volatility: fewer institutional desks are active, and price can gap on headlines or liquidations.
2) Watch the macro calendar that could reshape risk appetite fast
A few macro items are on traders’ radar heading into the final sessions of 2025 and the first stretch of 2026:
- Fed minutes (due Tuesday) and evolving expectations for 2026 rate cuts. [23]
- Ongoing focus on the dollar and how policy speculation could affect it—often a tailwind/headwind for crypto depending on the direction. [24]
3) Track XRP ETF flow commentary—but separate marketing from mechanics
ETF headlines can move sentiment quickly, but it’s worth distinguishing:
- Daily net flows (which can be noisy),
- Weekly and monthly trendlines (more informative), and
- Product structure and risk disclosures (critical for understanding what you actually own). [25]
4) Keep the “regulation and infrastructure” story in view
XRP’s late-2025 narrative has increasingly revolved around the plumbing:
- OCC charter momentum for Ripple National Trust Bank and what that enables (and doesn’t enable). [26]
- Ripple’s prime brokerage ambitions via the Hidden Road acquisition, signaling a push deeper into institutional services. [27]
- The SEC’s broader shift toward a more scalable ETF listing framework, which can influence how quickly new crypto products appear. [28]
The bottom line on XRP price today
With XRP around $1.85 into Friday evening in New York, the token is sitting at a spot where macro sentiment (rates, dollar, equity risk appetite) meets crypto-specific catalysts (ETF wrappers, Ripple’s regulatory progress, and institutional infrastructure moves). [29]
U.S. stocks just printed another near-record close in a calm session, and strategists are watching for an upbeat finish to 2025—while also warning that thin trading can magnify volatility. For XRP investors, that combination often translates to a simple operating reality: the narrative may be improving, but the tape can still whip around—especially between now and the next full U.S. session. [30]
References
1. coinmarketcap.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. occ.gov, 9. www.axios.com, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.fxempire.com, 15. za.investing.com, 16. etfs.grayscale.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. coinmarketcap.com, 19. www.fxempire.com, 20. www.fxempire.com, 21. www.coingecko.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. etfs.grayscale.com, 26. occ.gov, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.investopedia.com, 29. coinmarketcap.com, 30. www.reuters.com
