As of 4:32 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. markets have closed for the regular session, capping a thin, post‑holiday trading day that left major indexes near record territory. [1]
In that backdrop, Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) was last quoted around $352.13, with the day’s range roughly $347.83 to $353.22 on volume near 14.85 million shares. Because it’s after 4:00 p.m. ET, pricing can reflect extended-hours trading, when liquidity is typically lower and moves can be sharper. [2]
Below is what’s driving Broadcom stock right now—what the latest company guidance says, why margins are the center of the debate, how VMware is showing up in headlines, and what Wall Street forecasts imply heading into the next session (Monday, Dec. 29).
Broadcom stock price today: what the market just digested
Friday’s tape was defined by holiday-thinned participation and a market that is “catching its breath” after a strong run, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, in Reuters’ wrap of the session. Reuters also noted that the market is currently in the widely watched “Santa Claus rally” window that runs into early January. [3]
For Broadcom specifically, the stock continues to trade as a hybrid of two powerful narratives:
- AI infrastructure exposure (custom accelerators, networking silicon, and data-center connectivity)
- Infrastructure software cash generation (anchored by VMware)
That combination has supported strong demand for the shares—but it also amplifies scrutiny of profitability and execution risk as Broadcom scales its AI systems business and continues VMware’s transition to subscription and bundled offerings. [4]
The biggest fundamental anchor: Broadcom’s Q4 FY2025 results and Q1 FY2026 guidance
The most recent major fundamental update remains Broadcom’s fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025 results (fiscal year ended Nov. 2, 2025) and its initial outlook for Q1 FY2026 (ending Feb. 1, 2026). In its earnings release, Broadcom reported:
- Q4 revenue:$18.015B (up 28% year over year)
- Q4 adjusted EBITDA:$12.218B (about 68% of revenue)
- Q4 free cash flow:$7.466B (about 41% of revenue)
- Q1 FY2026 revenue guidance: about $19.1B
- Q1 FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance: about 67% of revenue [5]
AI is the headline—but “mix” is the subheadline
CEO Hock Tan emphasized that AI semiconductor revenue rose 74% year over year in Q4 and said Broadcom expects AI semiconductor revenue to double year over year to $8.2B in Q1, driven by custom AI accelerators and Ethernet AI switches. [6]
That growth rate is exactly what long‑term bulls want to see. But it sets up the next question investors are asking: Does surging AI revenue expand margins—or compress them?
Why margins became the battleground after earnings
Reuters captured the central tension: Broadcom projected Q1 revenue above Street estimates, but warned that margins would fall due to a higher mix of AI revenue. On the call, CFO Kirsten Spears said the company expects consolidated gross margin down about 100 basis points sequentially, “primarily reflecting a higher mix of AI revenue.” [7]
That concern shows up in several places:
- Customer concentration risk: Reuters reported that Kinngai Chan, senior research analyst at Summit Insights, flagged Broadcom’s AI customer concentration and the possibility that more system sales could carry lower gross margins as that mix grows. [8]
- Supply chain / foundry economics: Reuters also cited Gil Luria at D.A. Davidson, pointing to the risk that foundry costs—such as manufacturing capacity—could influence how much value Broadcom ultimately captures in custom AI processors. [9]
- Broader AI skepticism: Investopedia framed the reaction as part of a wider investor shift from “AI euphoria” toward “show‑me” scrutiny—where even strong AI numbers get discounted if profitability looks pressured. [10]
Bottom line: Broadcom’s current debate isn’t whether AI demand exists; it’s whether the profit pool in custom silicon and system-scale delivery remains as attractive as investors priced in.
Backlog and visibility: the number investors keep circling
One figure that continues to anchor bullish models is Broadcom’s reported AI backlog. Reuters reported CEO Hock Tan describing a backlog of $73 billion expected to ship over the next 18 months. [11]
Why it matters:
- It implies multi‑quarter visibility, which can reduce earnings “surprise” risk.
- It supports the idea that Broadcom is positioned as a critical supplier for hyperscaler AI buildouts.
- It also intensifies questions about who the customers are and how the contracts are structured, because backlog quality depends on concentration, pricing, and margin profile. [12]
VMware: cash engine, but also a headline risk investors can’t ignore
Broadcom’s earnings release showed Infrastructure Software revenue of $6.943B in Q4, up 19% year over year. [13] That scale is why many investors view VMware as the company’s cash-flow stabilizer while it expands AI silicon and systems.
But VMware is also a source of reputational and legal risk—and that risk has produced real headlines:
1) Fidelity lawsuit over VMware access
Reuters reported that a Fidelity Investments subsidiary sued Broadcom, alleging Broadcom threatened to cut off access to VMware software central to Fidelity’s operations unless disputes are resolved—raising the risk of outages and disruptions. Reuters also reported Broadcom agreed in a court filing to extend access through Jan. 21 while the case proceeds. [14]
2) Licensing and renewal friction
CRN reported that Broadcom’s VMware licensing changes included raising the minimum purchase requirement (reported as moving from 16 cores to 72 cores) and imposing a 20% penalty for late renewals, citing a memo obtained by the publication. [15]
CIO Dive has also documented the broader customer response to VMware’s shift toward bundled subscription models, including analysts’ commentary on the scale of disruption and the likelihood that many enterprises will evaluate alternatives—even if migration is hard. [16]
Investor takeaway: VMware supports Broadcom’s high cash generation, but aggressive commercialization can raise customer churn risk, legal disputes, and longer‑term brand damage—factors that markets can reprice quickly if they escalate.
Dividend and shareholder returns remain part of the AVGO story
Broadcom also increased its quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.65 per share, payable Dec. 31, 2025 to shareholders of record Dec. 22, 2025. The company pointed to fiscal 2025 strength, including record adjusted EBITDA of $43.0B and free cash flow of $26.9B. [17]
For income-oriented investors, those numbers matter because they show Broadcom’s ability to fund AI investment while returning cash—as long as margins and execution remain stable. [18]
What analysts forecast for Broadcom (AVGO) stock heading into 2026
Analyst targets vary by data provider and methodology, but the direction of consensus is broadly constructive—even as the margin debate persists.
Here’s how several widely followed aggregators currently frame the Street:
- StockAnalysis: “Strong Buy” consensus; average target around $420.81 (with a wide low/high range). [19]
- TipRanks: “Strong Buy” consensus (majority buys); average target around $455.63 (also with a wide range). [20]
- TradingView: 1‑year target displayed around $460.23, with max/min estimates shown on the page. [21]
How to interpret this (without overreading it):
- Targets often move after earnings and can lag sudden changes in margins, competitive dynamics, or AI spending cycles.
- The range of targets itself signals the key reality: Broadcom’s valuation is sensitive to assumptions about AI growth durability and profitability per dollar of AI revenue. [22]
Insider-selling headline check: what the filings show
Investors often watch insider activity around mega-cap tech. A recent SEC Form 4 shows Broadcom executive Mark D. Brazeal reported sales on Dec. 16, 2025 totaling 24,527 shares, and the filing states the sales were made automatically to cover withholding taxes tied to vesting RSUs (rather than a discretionary “open market” reduction). [23]
That context matters because tax-withholding sales are common and generally interpreted differently than voluntary liquidation.
The market is closed now—what investors should know before the next session
It is after 4:00 p.m. ET, so the next regular session is Monday, Dec. 29, 2025, with core U.S. trading hours 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Extended-hours trading can run into the evening and begin premarket, depending on venue and broker. [24]
With that in mind, here are the practical, market-structure-aware items to watch before Monday:
1) Expect holiday-thin liquidity and sharper “headline moves”
Reuters described Friday’s market as light-volume and catalyst-poor, a setup that can amplify moves in individual stocks if a new headline hits (AI, hyperscaler capex, regulation, VMware litigation). [25]
2) Track AI sentiment: margins vs. growth will remain the lever
Broadcom’s outlook is still being filtered through the lens Investopedia summarized: investors are willing to pay for AI growth, but are increasingly sensitive to whether that growth pressures margins. [26]
3) Watch VMware-related developments
Any update in large-customer disputes or litigation (like the Fidelity case) can influence how investors handicap VMware’s medium‑term stability and customer retention. [27]
4) Know the holiday calendar into New Year’s
U.S. markets were closed Dec. 25 and will be closed again on Jan. 1, 2026 for New Year’s Day. The period between now and then tends to include lower participation and year‑end positioning. [28]
Key takeaways for Broadcom (AVGO) investors right now
- AI revenue momentum is strong, and Broadcom’s guidance (including the $8.2B AI semiconductor outlook) keeps AVGO squarely in the AI infrastructure “core.” [29]
- The near-term valuation debate is about margins, not demand—especially as Broadcom’s AI mix shifts toward systems and custom silicon. [30]
- VMware supports cash flow but also introduces customer and legal headline risk, a factor that can influence multiples even when semiconductor execution is strong. [31]
- Street forecasts remain broadly bullish on a 12‑month view, but targets vary widely—reflecting uncertainty around the profitability curve of AI scale-up. [32]
If you want, I can write a tighter version of this piece in a more traditional wire style (shorter paragraphs, faster cadence) or a longer “deep dive” version focused specifically on AI margin mechanics and what the next two quarters’ mix could imply—still without charts or images.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.prnewswire.com, 6. www.prnewswire.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.prnewswire.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.crn.com, 16. www.ciodive.com, 17. www.prnewswire.com, 18. www.prnewswire.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.nyse.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.investopedia.com, 29. www.prnewswire.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. stockanalysis.com
