New York, Friday, December 26, 2025 (4:56 p.m. ET) — Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) finished a quiet, post‑Christmas session and is now trading in extended hours. As of 4:56 p.m. ET, Amazon shares last changed hands around $232.52, essentially flat on the day.
That “near‑unchanged” tape wasn’t unique to Amazon. U.S. equities ended Friday’s light, post‑holiday session close to record territory with muted moves and thin volume—exactly the kind of market backdrop where single headlines can move mega‑caps more than the day’s macro data. [1]
Below is what investors are tracking right now for Amazon stock: the latest market context, the most relevant company catalysts (especially AWS and AI infrastructure), key regulatory overhangs, and where analysts see AMZN heading into 2026—plus what matters before the next regular trading session.
Amazon stock price update: where AMZN stands after the closing bell
- Last trade (extended hours): about $232.52 at 4:56 p.m. ET.
- 52‑week range (approx.):$161.38 to $242.52.
- Market cap (approx.):$2.46 trillion.
Because the timestamp is after 4:00 p.m. ET, the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq’s regular session is closed right now. Extended‑hours liquidity can be thinner, spreads can widen, and price moves may not reflect what you’ll see at Monday’s open—especially in the final week of the year.
Current stock market situation: a thin, late‑December tape with “Santa Claus rally” attention
Friday’s market tone was defined by low conviction and low volume. Reuters described the session as light and catalyst‑starved, with major indexes barely moving even as they hovered near record levels and traders focused on year‑end seasonality. [2]
One reason seasonality is getting airtime: the market’s so‑called “Santa Claus rally” window—often defined as the final trading days of the year and the first couple of sessions of the new year—tends to draw attention when positioning is already thin. As Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick put it, this period can be a consistent seasonal tailwind. [3]
Zooming out, Reuters’ year‑end framing matters for AMZN because Amazon sits at the intersection of mega‑cap tech leadership, AI capex, and consumer spending. Reuters noted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted strong 2025 gains and that investors are weighing the path of interest rates into 2026. [4]
The biggest fundamental driver for AMZN: AWS + AI infrastructure (Trainium, servers, and “factories”)
If you’re trying to understand what can re‑rate Amazon stock in 2026, the conversation keeps returning to AWS growth and AI compute.
1) AWS is leaning harder into AI chips and faster training infrastructure
At AWS’ big industry gathering in Las Vegas this month, Reuters reported that Amazon plans to adopt Nvidia’s NVLink Fusion technology in future generations of its AI chips (including a future Trainium4), aiming to build larger, faster AI server clusters. AWS also rolled out new Trainium3‑based servers—Reuters cited AWS describing more than 4x the computing power of the prior generation while using 40% less energy. [5]
Why it matters for the stock: the market is rewarding cloud platforms that can offer compelling price‑performance for training and inference as enterprise AI deployments scale—especially when customers are comparing hyperscalers against Nvidia‑centric stacks.
2) “Project Rainier” and the Anthropic relationship keep AWS in the AI arms race
Reuters also reported that Amazon launched its AI compute cluster project called Rainier, and that Anthropic (backed by Amazon) plans to use more than a million chips of the infrastructure by the end of the year. Reuters described Rainier as incorporating nearly half‑a‑million of Amazon’s in‑house Trainium2 chips across multiple U.S. data centers. [6]
Investors tend to view this as a two‑part story:
- an AWS infrastructure moat (capacity + custom silicon), and
- a strategic AI ecosystem play (customers and partners building on Amazon‑controlled compute).
What Amazon’s last big earnings narrative revealed: AWS momentum + ad growth + massive capex
Amazon’s most consequential stock move of the past quarter came around its late‑October results and outlook, when Reuters highlighted a re‑acceleration in AWS and strong operating commentary.
Key points Reuters emphasized:
- AWS revenue rose 20% in the third quarter (ending September), described as the fastest clip in nearly three years. [7]
- Reuters reported Amazon projected fourth‑quarter net sales of $206B–$213B (with analysts’ average around $208.12B in LSEG-compiled data). [8]
- AWS typically contributes a minority of revenue but a majority of profit: Reuters cited AWS as making up roughly 60% of Amazon’s total operating income. [9]
- Advertising remained a standout: Reuters reported ad sales growth of 24% to $17.7B. [10]
- Capex is huge: Reuters quoted Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky expecting full‑year capex around $125B, with higher spend next year (without specifying a figure). [11]
This is the tension AMZN investors are living with going into 2026: AI and cloud demand look strong, but the investment intensity is enormous—and markets will keep asking when (and how efficiently) that spend becomes durable profit.
Retail and holiday demand: why late‑December data still matters for AMZN
Even though AWS often drives the debate, Amazon still has a massive retail engine—so late‑season consumer signals can influence sentiment.
- Reuters reported a strong early‑season online spending burst around Thanksgiving weekend, citing Adobe Analytics data and forecasts for Cyber Monday. [12]
- Adobe’s own holiday report projected a record $253.4B in online spend for the Nov. 1–Dec. 31 holiday window, up year‑over‑year, with mobile continuing to take share (Adobe forecast 56.1% mobile revenue share). [13]
For AMZN, this matters less as a “one‑day print” and more as a read‑through on:
- discretionary demand and deal‑sensitivity,
- third‑party seller momentum, and
- whether Amazon’s fulfillment and advertising “flywheel” is accelerating into year‑end.
Regulatory headlines investors are factoring into AMZN risk
1) FTC settlement over Prime enrollment and cancellation practices
The Federal Trade Commission announced a $2.5 billion settlement with Amazon tied to allegations involving Prime signups and cancellation friction, including $1B in civil penalties and $1.5B earmarked for consumer refunds, plus mandated changes to enrollment and cancellation flows. [14]
The FTC’s refunds page says Amazon’s automatic refunds were sent to eligible customers between Nov. 12, 2025 and Dec. 24, 2025, and it describes a later claims process in 2026 for eligible customers who didn’t receive an automatic refund. [15]
2) Europe: cloud “gatekeeper” scrutiny under the Digital Markets Act
Reuters reported that the European Commission launched multiple market investigations into cloud computing services by Amazon and Microsoft under the DMA framework, including probes into whether cloud services should be designated as “gatekeeper” services and whether the DMA can address cloud-sector practices effectively. Reuters said the Commission aimed to conclude the investigations within 12 months. [16]
For AWS investors, the key takeaway is that regulation isn’t only about retail marketplaces—cloud market structure is increasingly part of the story.
Wall Street forecasts: what analysts’ targets imply for Amazon stock in 2026
Analyst targets vary by data source and update cadence, but the broad message across major aggregators is consistent: most analysts remain bullish on AMZN, with targets implying meaningful upside from the current ~$232 level.
MarketWatch: average target near $297 (74 ratings)
MarketWatch’s analyst estimates page lists:
- Average target price:$297.45
- Number of ratings:74
- Average recommendation:Buy [17]
Against ~$232.5, that average target implies roughly ~28% upside (directionally; not a guarantee).
TipRanks: “Strong Buy” consensus, average around $296
TipRanks’ AMZN forecast page reports:
- Average price target:$296.12
- High / low targets:$340 / $250
- Consensus rating:Strong Buy, based on 44 buys, 1 hold, 0 sells (as shown on the page snippet). [18]
StockAnalysis: similar bullish tilt, with a wider low-end range
StockAnalysis reports:
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
- Average price target:$284.7
- Low / high targets:$195 / $340 (as presented in the snippet). [19]
Yahoo Finance: earnings estimate cadence (a useful “expectations bar”)
Yahoo Finance’s analysis snapshot shows multiple estimate buckets and analyst counts (quarterly and annual), including analyst counts that run into the dozens and average EPS estimates for the next year in the high‑single digits (as displayed in the snippet). [20]
How to read this as an investor:
Price targets are not promises; they’re a structured way to summarize how analysts think about the next 12 months given revenue growth, margin assumptions, and macro conditions. When targets cluster around the high‑$200s, it’s often because the Street is underwriting:
- continued AWS acceleration (especially AI services + infrastructure),
- advertising strength, and
- operating leverage in fulfillment/logistics versus prior years.
The bull case vs. bear case: what actually decides AMZN’s next leg
What could push AMZN higher from here
- AWS growth durability: if customers keep shifting workloads and training runs to AWS—and Amazon’s custom silicon improves cost economics—expectations can rise quickly. [21]
- Advertising operating leverage: Amazon ads have been a bright spot, and margin-rich segments tend to influence valuation more than retail revenue alone. [22]
- Holiday + consumer resilience: strong online spending reads support the “retail engine still matters” narrative into Q4 results. [23]
Key risks investors keep circling
- AI capex scrutiny: the market is increasingly focused on whether hyperscaler AI spending yields monetizable demand at sufficient margins—an issue highlighted broadly in year‑end market outlooks. [24]
- Regulatory spillover: the FTC settlement shows U.S. regulators’ willingness to dictate product-flow changes, and Europe’s cloud probes add another layer of uncertainty. [25]
- Year‑end liquidity + headline sensitivity: late December can exaggerate moves, especially in extended hours, when fewer participants are setting prices. [26]
The exchange is closed now: what investors should know before the next regular session
Because it’s after 4:00 p.m. ET in New York, the next “clean” price discovery for most investors will come at the next regular open.
Here’s what to watch before the next session begins:
- Extended-hours AMZN moves aren’t the final vote
After-hours trading can react to headlines (regulatory, AI partnerships, big tech read‑throughs) with less liquidity. Expect spreads and volatility to differ from normal hours. - Watch the macro calendar and year‑end positioning
Reuters’ week‑ahead framing points to investors staying focused on rate expectations and late‑year flows. In thin markets, even “known” themes (rates, AI capex, profits) can drive disproportionate index moves. [27] - For AMZN specifically, the checklist is simple
- Any fresh AWS/AI infrastructure announcements or large customer wins (Trainium, servers, AI “factories”). [28]
- Any updates on regulatory matters (FTC compliance steps, EU cloud investigations). [29]
- Retail demand read‑throughs as holiday reporting season approaches (Adobe/industry trackers). [30]
Bottom line: Amazon stock is ending the week in a market that’s calm on the surface but hypersensitive underneath—exactly the kind of environment where the AWS + AI infrastructure narrative and regulatory headlines can matter more than the day’s tape. With analysts’ average targets clustered in the high‑$200s across multiple aggregators, the Street is still broadly constructive—but investors heading into the next session should treat late‑December price action (especially after hours) with extra caution. [31]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. business.adobe.com, 14. www.ftc.gov, 15. www.ftc.gov, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.marketwatch.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. finance.yahoo.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. www.ftc.gov, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.ftc.gov, 30. business.adobe.com, 31. www.marketwatch.com
