New York (ET) — Friday, December 26, 2025, 5:01 p.m.
Wall Street wrapped up a quiet, post-Christmas session with fractional declines across the major indexes, a typical pattern for a low-liquidity holiday week. The Dow slipped about 0.04%, the S&P 500 edged down 0.03%, and the Nasdaq fell around 0.09%, with traders still talking about the “Santa Claus rally” window that spans the final trading days of the year and the first days of January. [1]
Against that backdrop, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is closing out the week with investors focused less on day-to-day market noise and more on three big drivers that could shape the next leg for the stock:
- the proposed Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) studios + streaming-assets deal and how it’s financed,
- Netflix’s accelerating advertising strategy, and
- the countdown to Netflix’s next earnings report (January 20, 2026). [2]
Netflix stock price today
As of late Friday afternoon, NFLX traded around $94.47, up roughly 0.8 points versus the prior close, after moving between approximately $93.16 and $94.74 during the session.
One important context point for readers comparing older headlines and historical prices: Netflix recently executed a 10-for-1 stock split, so many current quotes and targets are split-adjusted versus older pre-split numbers. [3]
Why NFLX is in focus: the Warner Bros. Discovery deal and the financing story
The dominant Netflix-stock headline in late December remains the company’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery’s film/TV studios and streaming assets—a transaction Reuters has described as a potential reshaping of Hollywood and streaming competition. [4]
The latest financing update: bridge loan refinanced in part
A key near-term investor question is: how much balance-sheet strain and execution risk does the deal introduce? This week brought a notable update.
Reuters reported that Netflix refinanced part of a $59 billion bridge loan tied to the transaction, securing a $5 billion revolving credit facility and two $10 billion delayed-draw term loans, leaving roughly $34 billion of the bridge facility still to be syndicated. [5]
A related SEC filing (Form 8‑K) provides additional detail on the credit agreement and transaction structure, underscoring how central financing execution is likely to remain for NFLX sentiment into 2026. [6]
The deal’s scope, timeline, and what could move the stock
Reuters has also reported that the Netflix transaction would include assets such as HBO and HBO Max, and that the deal is expected to close after Warner Bros. Discovery spins off its Global Networks unit, which Reuters places in Q3 2026. [7]
That “later” timeline matters for NFLX investors because it extends the period where headlines can swing between:
- regulatory positioning,
- financing updates (rates, spreads, demand for debt), and
- competitive pressure from rival bidders. [8]
Rival bids and regulatory risk: why volatility headlines aren’t going away
The WBD process has become a true bidding drama. Reuters reported that Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison provided a $40.4 billion personal guarantee to bolster Paramount Skydance’s push for WBD—yet WBD’s board maintained its stance favoring the Netflix deal (as of the Reuters reporting). [9]
Business Insider’s reporting on the same episode emphasizes how Paramount attempted to strengthen the “certainty” side of its proposal while keeping the price framework intact—another signal that competitive and financing narratives can keep driving NFLX headline risk. [10]
Antitrust scrutiny is a real swing factor
Reuters has repeatedly flagged that a Netflix–WBD combination would likely face intense antitrust scrutiny in the U.S. and Europe, and noted that political attention has increased around large media consolidation. [11]
For investors, this is the core trade-off:
- Bull case: Netflix emerges with a deeper library, stronger studio footprint, and a bigger platform for global streaming bundles.
- Bear case: regulators delay, reshape, or block elements of the deal; or financing costs dilute the economic upside. [12]
Netflix advertising momentum: “190 million” ad reach and live-stream monetization
While the deal captures headlines, Netflix’s fundamentals narrative still leans heavily on monetization—especially advertising.
Reuters reported that Netflix said ads on its platform have reached more than 190 million monthly active viewers (MAVs) globally, as it shifted to a viewer-based measurement approach (people rather than accounts). [13]
Reuters also reported that Netflix has been testing dynamic ad insertion for live programming and planned to expand that technology across multiple countries, with scaling continuing into 2026. [14]
And importantly for the stock’s multiple, Reuters quoted co-CEO Greg Peters saying Netflix is on track to more than double ad revenue (from the company’s perspective at the time of that reporting), while acknowledging ads remain smaller than subscription revenue but with substantial room to grow. [15]
In short: for many long-only investors, the “Netflix ads” thesis is no longer just an option—it’s increasingly central to how NFLX defends premium valuation relative to legacy media peers.
Wall Street forecasts: price targets cluster around the $125–$130 area (with wide dispersion)
Analyst forecasts remain constructive overall, but the spread between bullish and bearish targets is wide—especially with deal uncertainty in the mix.
MarketWatch’s analyst-estimates page shows price targets ranging from roughly $92 (low) to $152.50 (high), with an average near $129. [16]
MarketBeat similarly reports an average price target in the high-$120s, implying meaningful upside from the current split-adjusted price level—again, with a wide target range. [17]
Recent rating/target trims highlight “deal uncertainty” risk
A Yahoo Finance report summarizing analyst activity says Wolfe Research lowered its price target while keeping a positive stance—one illustration of how deal-related uncertainty can pressure targets even when longer-term business confidence remains. [18]
And a Barron’s item (headline-level) points to Seaport Research Partners lowering its price target amid uncertainty tied to the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition. [19]
For investors trying to interpret “forecast” headlines: the key isn’t one firm’s target—it’s why targets move (financing assumptions, synergy estimates, regulatory probabilities, and ad-growth confidence).
Next major catalyst: Netflix earnings date and what to watch
Netflix’s next scheduled inflection point is close enough to matter.
Netflix says it will publish fourth-quarter 2025 results and its business outlook on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, at approximately 1:01 p.m. Pacific (just after the U.S. market close in Eastern time). [20]
Netflix’s investor events listing also schedules the earnings interview for 1:45 p.m. Pacific that day. [21]
What investors will likely focus on in the report
Based on what’s been driving the tape in recent months, expect the market to center on:
- Advertising traction: updates on reach, ad-load strategy, and live-sports monetization progress. [22]
- Deal commentary: any updated framing on timing, financing, and regulatory posture for the WBD asset acquisition. [23]
- Outlook and margins: whether Netflix can keep expanding profitability while investing in content and live programming.
- Investor confidence: how leadership communicates risks and trade-offs—especially if headline volatility around the deal persists.
The market is closed now: what NFLX investors should know before the next session
It’s after the 4:00 p.m. ET close, meaning regular trading is finished for the day, though post-market trading can remain active and more volatile due to thinner liquidity. Nasdaq documents describe the standard pre-market (starting 4:00 a.m. ET), regular session (9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET), and post-market trading structure. [24]
Next-session checklist for NFLX shareholders and watchlist investors
Before Monday’s open (the next regular session after a Friday close), here are the practical things to watch:
- Overnight / weekend deal headlines: incremental filing updates, new bidder moves, or regulatory commentary can gap the stock at the open. [25]
- Financing-market tone: with a deal of this scale, credit-market appetite and rates can influence investor confidence even without new Netflix-specific news. [26]
- Thin year-end liquidity: late December can amplify moves—good or bad—because many large portfolios are already positioned. Reuters and AP both highlighted the light-volume, post-holiday setup. [27]
- Know the holiday calendar: U.S. markets were closed for Christmas Day (Dec. 25) and had an early close on Dec. 24, but operated normally on Dec. 26. [28]
- Use limit orders if trading after-hours: spreads can widen and prints can be jumpy outside the regular session.
Risks that belong in any Netflix stock outlook right now
A balanced NFLX thesis in late 2025 should keep these risks front and center:
- Regulatory outcomes: antitrust review timing and conditions can materially change the economics of the proposed WBD asset deal. [29]
- Financing risk: the cost and availability of long-term funding to replace bridge financing can change the deal’s attractiveness and Netflix’s financial flexibility. [30]
- Execution risk: integrating major studio operations and streaming assets is complex—even for Netflix. [31]
- Valuation sensitivity: NFLX has historically commanded a premium multiple; shifts in growth expectations can re-rate the stock quickly. (This dynamic has shown up in past rating changes like JPMorgan’s downgrade earlier in 2025.) [32]
- Advertising cycle exposure: as ad revenue becomes more meaningful, macro ad-spend cycles matter more—another reason investors are watching Netflix’s ad tooling and live-stream ad insertion closely. [33]
Bottom line
Netflix stock is heading into year-end with a rare combination of forces pulling on the narrative at once: a potentially historic media acquisition, a maturing but still fast-improving advertising engine, and an earnings date (Jan. 20) that could reset expectations for 2026.
For investors, the question isn’t just “Is NFLX up or down today?”—it’s whether the market continues to reward Netflix for expanding beyond subscriptions without letting deal complexity, financing costs, or regulatory uncertainty erode the long-term compounding story.
More reporting and market context
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.businessinsider.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. finance.yahoo.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. ir.netflix.net, 21. ir.netflix.net, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. listingcenter.nasdaq.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.nasdaq.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.investopedia.com, 33. www.reuters.com
