As of 5:38 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. markets have closed for regular trading and Rocket Lab Corporation (NASDAQ: RKLB) is trading in after-hours.
RKLB finished the regular session at about $70.65, down $6.53 (-8.46%), and was indicated around $70.28 in extended trading near 5:38 p.m. ET, according to MarketBeat’s extended-hours quote. [1]
During the session, the stock moved in a wide range—roughly $70.39 to $76.99—showing the kind of volatility that can be amplified in thin, post-holiday markets. [2]
That pullback comes just days after Rocket Lab grabbed headlines with a landmark U.S. defense satellite award—fuel for a powerful rally into Christmas week—before traders locked in gains during a quieter, year-end session.
The market backdrop: quiet post‑Christmas trade, “Santa rally” season, and Fed focus
Friday’s tape was subdued across Wall Street. Major indexes closed slightly lower in light post-holiday volume, with the S&P 500 near 6,929.94, the Dow near 48,710.97, and the Nasdaq near 23,593.10, according to reports on the session. [3]
Reuters quoted Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, describing the day as a “catch your breath” pause after a strong run—while noting the market is still early in the traditional “Santa Claus rally” window (the final five trading days of the year plus the first two of the new year). [4]
Looking ahead, Reuters also highlighted key near-term macro catalysts that can matter for high-beta growth names like Rocket Lab:
- Federal Reserve minutes due Tuesday (Dec. 30, 2025) may add clarity to the rate path, per Michael Reynolds (Glenmede). [5]
- Ongoing sector rotation and valuation sensitivity, noted by Anthony Saglimbene (Ameriprise Financial). [6]
- And the reality that light year-end liquidity can exaggerate price moves, especially in volatile single names. [7]
In other words: Rocket Lab’s move today happened in a market environment where big intraday swings can appear without a single “new” fundamental headline.
Why Rocket Lab is in focus: the $816M Space Development Agency award
Rocket Lab’s most market-moving catalyst this month is its newly announced prime contract tied to U.S. national security space.
On Dec. 19, 2025, Rocket Lab said it was awarded a $816 million prime contract by the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) to design and manufacture 18 satellites for the Tracking Layer Tranche 3 (TRKT3) program under the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA). The company said the award includes a $806 million base plus up to $10.45 million in options, and it also described additional subsystem opportunities that could lift total capture value toward ~$1 billion. [8]
The SDA’s own award notice lists Rocket Lab USA’s agreement with a total potential value of $805 million for 18 tracking-layer space vehicles—part of a broader set of tranche awards across multiple primes. [9]
TechCrunch added important context: the Tracking Layer deal is separate from Rocket Lab’s earlier $515 million SDA award for Transport Layer‑Beta Tranche 2, and together the company’s SDA-linked awards total more than $1.3 billion in value. [10]
This contract flow is a big part of the bull case for RKLB: Rocket Lab is increasingly being valued not just as a launch provider, but as a vertically integrated space systems and payload supplier aligned to U.S. defense priorities.
Why the stock fell today despite “good news” headlines
A down day after a major contract win can feel counterintuitive—until you look at positioning and timing.
Rocket Lab shares had already rallied sharply into Christmas week on the SDA news and execution milestones, and several outlets described the move as one of the standout runs in the space stock group. [11]
Friday’s decline fits a common pattern for momentum names:
- Post-news profit-taking after a large multi-day run-up
- Thin post-holiday liquidity (moves can overshoot) [12]
- High beta / high volatility behavior—Rocket Lab is widely tracked as a volatile stock, and it traded with a large day range Friday. [13]
Put simply: the market appears to have shifted from “repricing the contract win” to “debating the valuation and pace of execution” as year-end nears.
Analyst forecasts: bullish upgrades collide with a higher starting price
Wall Street sentiment is broadly constructive—but the math changes when a stock has already surged.
MarketBeat reported that Needham raised its price objective on Rocket Lab to $90 (from $63) with a buy rating, while KeyCorp lifted its target to $75 (overweight) and Stifel raised its target to $85 (buy). [14]
At the same time, consensus averages can look less dramatic:
- MarketBeat’s summary cited an average target around $61.25 and a “Moderate Buy” type consensus, reflecting that not all analysts have caught up to the stock’s rapid move. [15]
- Investing.com’s analyst snapshot showed an average price target around $68.75 with a high estimate of $90 and low of $47, implying the stock is trading close to (or above) many mid-consensus estimates after its 2025 surge. [16]
One practical takeaway for investors: upgrades can still matter, but when the stock has already run hard, the market often demands fresh catalysts (new awards, accelerating revenue, Neutron clarity) rather than simply the initial headline.
Fundamentals check: strong revenue growth, big guidance, and the Neutron timeline
Rocket Lab’s last reported quarter showed meaningful momentum:
- In its Q3 2025 results release (Nov. 10, 2025), Rocket Lab reported record quarterly revenue of about $155 million, and discussed progress across launch and space systems as well as defense-aligned M&A activity. [17]
- The company provided Q4 2025 revenue guidance of $170 million to $180 million and gross margin ranges, positioning the next earnings report as a key check-in for whether growth is accelerating fast enough to justify premium valuation. [18]
- Management also updated its Neutron schedule: Rocket Lab said Neutron is expected to arrive at Launch Complex 3 in Q1 2026, with the first launch thereafter pending qualification and acceptance testing. [19]
On Neutron specifically, Spaceflight Now reported the company pushed Neutron’s debut into 2026, and cited Rocket Lab CFO Adam Spice discussing how the delay affects program spending and staffing costs (including commentary that spending could reach roughly $360 million by end of 2025). [20]
For many investors, Neutron is the “next leg” variable: it’s viewed as central to Rocket Lab’s ability to compete for larger missions and improve unit economics beyond the Electron cadence.
Operational momentum: a record year of launches
Rocket Lab is also leaning on execution credibility. Space.com reported the company completed its 21st mission of 2025 on Dec. 21 and finished the year with a new annual launch record, with all 2025 launches successful; it also noted iQPS has booked additional Electron launches for 2026. [21]
That operational track record matters because defense and civil customers tend to reward reliability and schedule performance—key ingredients for long-duration contracts like SDA constellations.
Risks investors are weighing now: valuation, profitability, and execution
Even bulls typically acknowledge the trade-offs at current levels:
- Unprofitability: Rocket Lab is still operating with losses as it invests heavily—common for growth-stage space manufacturing and launch businesses. [22]
- Insider selling / supply: MarketBeat noted insider selling activity in recent months as part of its stock recap. [23]
- Execution risk on Neutron: pushing first flight into 2026 increases “timeline risk,” and markets can reprice quickly if milestones slip again. [24]
- Competitive pressure: Reuters reported China is easing IPO requirements for reusable-rocket developers—another sign that global competition and capital formation in launch is accelerating. [25]
None of these invalidate the bull case—but they help explain why RKLB can drop hard even when long-term headlines look favorable.
What investors should know before the next session
Because it’s after hours now (5:38 p.m. ET), the next key moments for most investors are:
1) Watch extended-hours moves—but don’t overinterpret thin prints
RKLB was indicated around $70.28 in extended trading near 5:38 p.m. ET, slightly below the regular close. Extended-hours liquidity is typically thinner, spreads can widen, and price action can reverse quickly when regular trading resumes. [26]
2) The next regular session is Monday—and year-end conditions can amplify volatility
With year-end approaching, portfolio adjustments and light volume can cause outsized gaps at the open, especially in high-beta names. Reuters explicitly flagged that light trading can exaggerate moves. [27]
3) Put the day’s drop in context: the contract catalyst is still “live”
The SDA Tracking Layer contract is a multi-year manufacturing and delivery effort. Investors will be looking for:
- program execution updates,
- backlog conversion into revenue,
- and margin performance as production scales. [28]
4) Macro catalysts next week can move “space growth” stocks
Fed minutes (Dec. 30) and rate-cut expectations remain a market driver, with strategists emphasizing how interest-rate narratives can shape risk appetite into 2026. [29]
5) Know when the next earnings window is expected—and confirm the official date
Several earnings calendars point to late February / early March 2026 for Rocket Lab’s next report (Q4 2025). For example, Zacks lists Feb. 26, 2026 as an expected date, while other platforms show early March. Treat these as estimates until Rocket Lab confirms officially. [30]
Bottom line
Rocket Lab stock is ending the week with a sharp pullback in a thin post-holiday session—but the fundamental narrative investors are trading hasn’t changed: a major U.S. defense satellite award, strong launch execution, and a 2026 roadmap that hinges on Neutron progress. The next session is less about “what happened today” and more about whether bulls defend the story through year-end positioning—and whether fresh catalysts arrive to justify the stock’s elevated expectations.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.sda.mil, 10. techcrunch.com, 11. www.investopedia.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.globenewswire.com, 19. www.globenewswire.com, 20. spaceflightnow.com, 21. www.space.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. spaceflightnow.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.globenewswire.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.zacks.com
