As of 5:44 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. markets have already wrapped up the regular session, leaving investors to digest a quieter post-holiday tape alongside a steady stream of memory-market headlines.
Sandisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) was last trading around $250.05 in extended-hours activity, essentially flat versus the prior close—but the day’s action told a more dramatic story: the stock opened near $259.01, hit an intraday high of $261.24, and then slid to finish back around the $250 area, with more than 5.4 million shares changing hands.
That kind of intraday reversal—up sharply early, then fading into the close—is worth noting because it often reflects a market that’s balancing two competing narratives:
- Near-term positioning and profit-taking after a historic run, especially in thin year-end trading, and
- Strong fundamental tailwinds from tight NAND supply and surging AI data-center demand that continue to underpin the broader memory/storage complex.
Below is what matters right now for Sandisk investors, what analysts are projecting, and what to watch before the next regular trading session (Monday, Dec. 29, 2025).
Market snapshot after Christmas: indexes flat, small caps softer
The broader market tone into the close was mostly flat, consistent with the “post-Christmas, year-end positioning” feel:
- SPY (S&P 500 ETF): roughly -0.03% on the day
- QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF): roughly -0.02%
- IWM (Russell 2000 ETF): roughly -0.54%
Inside storage and memory, performance was mixed: Micron (MU) finished lower, while Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate (STX) were modestly higher.
For Sandisk holders, the implication is straightforward: today didn’t look like a broad “risk-on” surge lifting everything. Instead, single-name positioning and sector-specific fundamentals continue to play a major role in how SNDK trades day to day.
Why Sandisk stock is a focal point going into year-end
Sandisk is not just another semiconductor ticker in 2025—it’s one of the market’s most closely watched “AI infrastructure picks-and-shovels” stories.
1) Sandisk is newly independent again—and the market has repriced it fast
Sandisk completed its separation from Western Digital and began trading on Nasdaq under SNDK on February 24, 2025, with CEO David Goeckeler framing the opportunity around NAND innovation and AI-era demand for storage. [1]
2) S&P 500 inclusion amplified visibility and flows
Sandisk’s move into the S&P 500 was widely covered as a milestone of its post-spinoff surge, with index inclusion often driving incremental demand from passive vehicles and benchmarked funds. [2]
3) The market is trading Sandisk as a “memory upcycle + AI” proxy
The core bet: AI data centers are consuming more high-performance storage, and tight supply supports pricing power.
That thesis isn’t just narrative—Sandisk’s own reporting and guidance show accelerating datacenter traction.
The most important company fundamentals right now: datacenter growth and a big guidance step-up
In its fiscal first quarter 2026 report (released November 6, 2025), Sandisk highlighted:
- Revenue:$2.308 billion, up 21% sequentially
- GAAP net income:$112 million (or $0.75 per diluted share)
- Non-GAAP EPS:$1.22
- Datacenter revenue:$269 million, up 26% sequentially
- BiCS8 adoption:15% of total bits shipped, with expectations to become the majority of bit production exiting fiscal 2026
- Fiscal Q2 2026 outlook: revenue $2.55B–$2.65B and Non-GAAP EPS $3.00–$3.40 [3]
CEO David Goeckeler emphasized that customers are “turning to Sandisk” for its technology as demand strengthens, while pointing to balance-sheet strength and long-term value creation. [4]
That Q2 EPS guide is particularly central to the bull case: it implies that Sandisk sees not only volume demand, but also meaningful pricing and mix improvement—the kind of operational leverage investors look for early in an upcycle.
The bigger backdrop: memory tightness, NAND pricing pressure, and AI-driven supply prioritization
A Sandisk “stock story” in late 2025 is inseparable from the broader memory supply-demand picture—especially what’s happening with AI buildouts.
TrendForce: memory prices projected to rise again in Q1 2026
TrendForce reported in mid-December that memory prices are projected to rise sharply again in 1Q26, pressuring device makers to raise prices and/or reduce specs—an environment that typically benefits upstream suppliers when they have leverage. [5]
Reuters: Micron expects tight markets beyond 2026 and is raising capex
In a closely watched December 17 Reuters report, Micron forecast profit well above expectations and said memory markets could remain tight past 2026, while raising FY2026 capex plans to $20 billion. The story also quoted Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra on the persistence of tightness and included commentary from Summit Insights analyst Kinngai Chan on AI demand boosting margins and influencing supply allocation. [6]
Even though that’s Micron-specific, it matters for Sandisk because it reinforces the broader thesis: AI demand is absorbing capacity and pushing suppliers to prioritize the highest-margin segments.
Supply chain chatter: NAND shortages spilling into consumer storage
Industry reporting has also flagged downstream disruption consistent with constrained NAND availability. For example, Tom’s Hardware reported on warnings tied to NAND and DRAM shortages, including delays and cost spikes described by a storage vendor citing upstream constraints and hyperscaler prioritization. [7]
None of these headlines alone “moves Sandisk stock” every day—but together, they form the macro foundation for why investors keep paying attention to Sandisk’s pricing power and datacenter expansion.
Analyst outlook and forecasts: price targets moving up, expectations climbing even faster
Morgan Stanley: “upcycle still in early innings,” datacenter strength “durable”
A Morgan Stanley note summarized via TheFly described Sandisk’s datacenter-driven strength as durable, arguing the upcycle “feels like…early innings” with limited supply growth, while maintaining an Overweight rating and raising the price target (as reported). [8]
Another market summary around Morgan Stanley commentary highlighted expectations for industry-wide pricing increases and pointed to enterprise SSD launches tied to the BiCS8 process as a catalyst, while noting risk/reward becomes more balanced after a rapid run. [9]
Bullish long-range projections (and a reminder of just how stretched expectations have become)
A Barron’s report this month underscored how aggressively forecasts have ramped, citing Benchmark Equity Research projecting large revenue growth through 2027 and referencing a Citi view with a notably higher target (as reported), driven by enterprise SSD opportunity and technology positioning. [10]
Consensus-style estimates: strong growth, premium valuation signals
A Nasdaq/Zacks-style analysis published recently pointed to a fiscal 2026 earnings consensus estimate (as referenced) and flagged that Sandisk trades at a premium on certain valuation measures (for example, forward P/S versus industry), even while arguing that BiCS8 transition and AI-related demand justify that premium in the current cycle. [11]
Taken together, Wall Street’s stance on Sandisk can be summarized like this:
- Many analysts still see fundamental upside tied to the upcycle and AI storage demand,
- But the stock’s repricing has been so fast that “valuation vs. execution” is now the main debate.
Risks investors shouldn’t ignore: cyclicality, execution, and costs
Even bulls generally agree on one thing: memory is cyclical, and cyclical stocks can punish investors who buy after expectations peak.
Key risks highlighted in recent coverage and company context include:
1) Fab startup costs and margin noise can disrupt the narrative
Earlier in 2025, Investopedia noted that Sandisk’s profit outlook at the time came in below some expectations due to higher fab startup costs, with CEO Goeckeler describing the startup phase as a significant but temporary “episodic event.” [12]
2) “Tight supply” is bullish—until it isn’t
Right now, the market is rewarding suppliers for tightness and pricing power. But the same dynamic can reverse if:
- capacity ramps faster than expected,
- demand growth slows, or
- customers pause orders after aggressive multi-quarter buys.
(That’s not a Sandisk-only issue; it’s the reality of memory cycles.)
3) High expectations + fast gains = sensitivity to any disappointment
When a stock has already priced in “strong quarters ahead,” the penalty for even small misses (or cautious commentary) can be severe—especially around earnings.
What investors should know before the next session
Because it’s after the close in New York, here’s the practical checklist for anyone watching Sandisk heading into Monday’s open (Dec. 29):
Watch 1: Extended-hours liquidity and headline sensitivity
After-hours trading can exaggerate moves because it’s thinner. If SNDK moves meaningfully Sunday night or premarket Monday, confirm whether it’s company-specific news or simply a broader memory-sector repricing.
Watch 2: Memory pricing signals and supply-chain updates
TrendForce’s expectation of continued memory price pressure into 1Q26 is supportive of supplier pricing power—but it also increases downstream stress on device makers. Keep an eye on any weekend or premarket commentary about NAND contract/spot trends and OEM demand adjustments. [13]
Watch 3: Peer read-throughs—Micron remains a tone-setter
Micron’s guidance and comments about tight markets beyond 2026 have been a key “halo” for the space. If Micron (or other peers) sees fresh analyst actions or new datapoints, Sandisk can move in sympathy. [14]
Watch 4: Short positioning (not extreme, but not zero)
Short interest in Sandisk has been reported at about 6.93 million shares, roughly 4.74% of float (as of mid-December), according to MarketBeat—enough to matter on sharp upside moves, but not the classic “crowded short” setup by itself. [15]
Watch 5: The next big catalyst is earnings—treat dates as estimates until Sandisk confirms
Earnings calendars are currently pointing to early-to-mid February 2026 for Sandisk’s next report/call (estimates vary by source). Verify on official company channels when the date is announced. [16]
Bottom line: Sandisk is still trading like a flagship AI-storage upcycle play—now with higher stakes
Sandisk enters the final trading days of 2025 near $250, after a session that showed real intraday volatility even as the broader market finished mostly unchanged.
The bull case remains coherent and well supported by current data:
- management is guiding to a major sequential step-up,
- datacenter revenue is growing,
- BiCS8 transition is progressing, and
- the industry backdrop (tight supply and rising memory pricing expectations) remains favorable. [17]
But the “easy part” of the trade—repricing the stock from spinoff uncertainty to upcycle enthusiasm—has largely already happened. From here, returns may depend less on the story and more on execution versus already-elevated expectations.
References
1. www.sandisk.com, 2. www.investopedia.com, 3. www.sandisk.com, 4. www.sandisk.com, 5. www.trendforce.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.tomshardware.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. www.trendforce.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. marketchameleon.com, 17. www.sandisk.com
