New York time check: It is 5:54 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025—and the U.S. stock market’s regular session has already ended.
Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A common stock (NASDAQ: COIN) is finishing the first post‑Christmas session in the red amid light holiday liquidity across Wall Street. As of after-hours trading, Coinbase shares were around $236.90, down roughly 1.2% versus the prior close, after trading between about $232.96 and $241.40 during the session.
The broader market was similarly subdued. The S&P 500 slipped to 6,929.94, the Dow to 48,710.97, and the Nasdaq to 23,593.10 in quiet, post‑holiday trading—an environment where individual headlines can have an outsized impact on single names, including crypto‑linked stocks. [1]
For Coinbase investors, the bigger story into year‑end isn’t just today’s fractional move—it’s the company’s accelerating push to become a multi‑product financial platform at a moment when crypto prices, regulation, and competition are all shifting at once.
COIN stock today: Why Coinbase is moving with a “thin tape” market
Late‑December trading is often defined by reduced institutional participation and wider spreads, and Reuters described Friday’s session as muted and near record peaks for major indexes—conditions that can magnify volatility in higher‑beta names. [2]
Coinbase also continues to trade with crypto sentiment. Bitcoin was around $87,422 at the time of writing, and digital‑asset price swings—especially into weekends—can change risk appetite quickly for crypto equities like COIN.
Adding to the backdrop, market watchers have been focused on year‑end tax dynamics in digital assets, including increased tax‑loss harvesting as bitcoin pulled back from highs earlier in the year. [3]
The news driving Coinbase right now: Stocks, event contracts, and prediction markets
Coinbase pushes into stock trading and event contracts, partners with Kalshi
One of the most consequential Coinbase headlines this month: the company said it will start letting users trade stocks and event contracts tied to real‑world outcomes, a move that pulls Coinbase more directly onto the turf of retail brokerages. Reuters reported Coinbase is partnering with Kalshi for the expansion and said Coinbase also plans to launch tokenized stocks “in the coming months,” with the aim of enabling round‑the‑clock trading. [4]
This is a strategic pivot investors have debated for years: can Coinbase reduce the market’s tendency to treat COIN as a leveraged bet on crypto trading volume?
Coinbase executive Max Branzburg framed the ambition plainly to Reuters: the company aims to offer “the greatest variety of contracts available on one platform.” [5]
But Reuters also flagged a key risk: event contracts arrive amid heightened regulatory uncertainty, including disputes over whether these products are solely under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s umbrella or whether some state regulators can assert authority. [6]
Coinbase buys The Clearing Company as it “doubles down” on prediction markets
Just days after unveiling the product push, Coinbase announced it will acquire prediction‑markets startup The Clearing Company—its tenth acquisition in 2025, according to Reuters. Terms were not disclosed, and the deal is expected to close in January. [7]
Reuters quoted Benchmark analysts describing why prediction markets could matter strategically: they can be a “high‑engagement, high‑frequency product” that gives users reasons to open the app beyond crypto. [8]
Reuters also reported that J.P. Morgan analysts said Coinbase’s newly unveiled products could encourage and incentivize customer engagement—important because engagement in crypto apps can be episodic when volatility fades. [9]
And crucially for total addressable market arguments, Reuters cited a note from Citizens Financial estimating prediction markets were generating nearly $2 billion in revenue at the time and could grow multiple‑fold by 2030 as institutions participate. [10]
Coinbase’s 2025 deal spree: Deribit and the institutional derivatives strategy
Coinbase’s expansion isn’t limited to “new tabs in the app.” It’s also been buying infrastructure.
Back in May, Coinbase announced it would acquire crypto derivatives exchange Deribit in a $2.9 billion cash‑and‑stock deal, expanding into crypto options and deepening its position with more sophisticated and institutional traders. [11]
Reuters quoted analyst Bo Pei of US Tiger Securities saying the acquisition gives Coinbase a foothold outside the U.S., where leverage trading is more prevalent. [12] Reuters also cited Daiwa Securities analyst Steven Nie pointing to the upside if the U.S. eventually legalizes more crypto options/perpetuals domestically. [13]
Coinbase’s own Q3 2025 shareholder letter later noted that Deribit contributed $52 million of revenue in Q3 after closing in mid‑August—an early data point for investors tracking whether the purchase can diversify revenue beyond spot trading. [14]
Coinbase fundamentals: Trading still drives results, but USDC and subscriptions are increasingly central
Coinbase’s financial narrative in 2025 has been about mix—not just total revenue.
Q3 2025: Higher revenue and a bigger subscription base
In its Q3 2025 shareholder letter, Coinbase reported:
- Net revenue:$1.793 billion
- Net income:$433 million
- Adjusted EBITDA:$801 million [15]
The same letter shows transaction revenue totaling about $1.046 billion in Q3, while subscription and services revenue totaled about $746.7 million—a mix the market often watches closely because subscription revenue is usually viewed as higher‑quality and less cyclical than pure trading fees. [16]
Within subscription and services, Coinbase reported Q3 stablecoin revenue of about $354.7 million, up from Q2’s $332.5 million. [17]
Q2 2025: USDC balances, Base scaling, and a reminder about operational risk
In Q2, Coinbase disclosed stablecoin revenue of $332 million and said average USDC balances held in Coinbase products rose 13% quarter‑over‑quarter to $13.8 billion, with off‑platform USDC balances also up. [18]
The Q2 letter also emphasized the company’s push to scale Base, including transaction processing measured in milliseconds and “millicents,” which Coinbase positions as necessary infrastructure for real‑world onchain payments and apps. [19]
But Q2 also contained a cautionary operational detail: Coinbase said operating expenses rose in part due to $307 million in expenses related to a data theft incident disclosed in May. [20]
Management’s forward view: Q4 outlook from the Q3 letter
For investors thinking about what could matter in early 2026, Coinbase’s Q3 letter included an outlook framework for Q4, including subscription and services revenue expected in a range of $710–$790 million, while also urging caution about extrapolating short‑term transaction revenue. [21]
Regulation: From the SEC case dismissal to new product scrutiny
Regulation remains one of the biggest “swing factors” in how investors value Coinbase.
In February 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced it filed a joint stipulation to dismiss its ongoing civil enforcement action against Coinbase. The SEC tied the move to the formation of a Crypto Task Force aimed at developing a clearer regulatory framework. [22]
At the same time, Coinbase’s newest products (event contracts and prediction markets) introduce a fresh regulatory conversation. Reuters highlighted state‑level disputes and the risk that fragmented oversight could complicate rollout. [23]
Analyst forecasts for Coinbase stock: Price targets, upside cases, and what could break them
Forecasting COIN is unusually dependent on both company execution and external variables (crypto prices, volatility, and regulatory rules). Still, investors are getting more explicit “platform” theses from Wall Street and crypto‑focused analysts.
Clear Street: Coinbase as a top fintech idea for 2026
A Coindesk report said Clear Street analyst Owen Lau has kept a Buy rating and cited a $415 price target, arguing for upside driven by items including stablecoin revenue and regulatory catalysts. [24]
Consensus ranges: A wide spread signals uncertainty
Aggregator snapshots underscore just how dispersed forecasts remain:
- TipRanks shows an average price target around $385 with estimates ranging roughly from the low $200s to above $500. [25]
- TradingView lists a similar spread, with an average target in the high‑$300s and a broad max/min range. [26]
The takeaway isn’t that one number is “right.” It’s that the market is still debating whether Coinbase becomes:
- a more stable “financial infrastructure” company (payments, custody, USDC rails, derivatives), or
- remains primarily a volatility‑driven trading business with cyclical earnings.
One mainstream framing: “Everything exchange” and diversification
A Nasdaq.com analysis (from Zacks) published Friday described Coinbase as positioning itself to benefit from a more supportive U.S. policy posture and expanding products beyond spot trading—calling out areas like Base, stablecoins/payments, prediction markets, tokenized equities, and deals including The Clearing Company. [27]
If you own COIN: What to watch before the next market session
Because it’s 5:54 p.m. ET, regular trading is over. The next U.S. stock market session is Monday, December 29, 2025.
Here’s what investors commonly track between now and the open:
1) Weekend crypto price action (and Monday gap risk)
Crypto trades 24/7, stocks don’t. With bitcoin around $87,422 now, sharp weekend moves can set up Monday gaps in COIN—especially into year‑end positioning.
2) Any follow‑through headlines on tokenized stocks, event contracts, or prediction markets
Coinbase’s product push (stocks + event contracts + tokenized equities) is a potential multi‑year re‑rating catalyst, but it’s also an area where new regulatory headlines can change sentiment fast. [28]
3) Integration and closing timeline for The Clearing Company
Reuters reported the acquisition is expected to close in January. If Coinbase provides updates—either on closing or on product rollout metrics—those could matter more than day‑to‑day crypto price moves in thin markets. [29]
4) Year‑end tax and liquidity dynamics
Multiple outlets have focused on how tax‑loss harvesting dynamics can influence crypto prices into year end, which can spill into crypto‑equity sentiment. [30]
5) The next earnings date: likely mid‑February, but not confirmed
Coinbase has not yet posted a clearly visible upcoming earnings event on its investor events page (it currently shows an “Upcoming Events” section but does not present a listed event in the visible view). [31] Meanwhile, Nasdaq’s earnings page shows an algorithm‑based estimate around February 12, 2026, though it also notes availability limitations—so investors should treat this as a placeholder until Coinbase issues an official release. [32]
Bottom line: Coinbase stock enters 2026 with a bigger story than “crypto exchange”
Coinbase ends the post‑Christmas session slightly lower, but the more important question for COIN holders is whether the company’s 2025 moves—derivatives via Deribit, prediction markets via acquisitions, and a direct push into stock trading and tokenized equities—can convert Coinbase from a volatility‑dependent trading stock into a broader financial platform with more recurring revenue.
The market will likely keep pricing COIN as a high‑beta name in the short run—especially as year‑end liquidity thins—yet the company’s own results show subscription and services (including stablecoin revenue) are increasingly central to the narrative investors will carry into 2026.
References
1. apnews.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.bloomberg.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. investor.coinbase.com, 15. investor.coinbase.com, 16. investor.coinbase.com, 17. investor.coinbase.com, 18. s27.q4cdn.com, 19. s27.q4cdn.com, 20. s27.q4cdn.com, 21. investor.coinbase.com, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.coindesk.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. www.tradingview.com, 27. www.nasdaq.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.bloomberg.com, 31. investor.coinbase.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com
