NEW YORK — Dec. 26, 2025 — CoreWeave, Inc. (Nasdaq: CRWV) is closing out the post‑Christmas trading day under renewed scrutiny as investors weigh a familiar tension in the AI infrastructure trade: blistering demand and massive long-term contracts versus heavy financing needs, high interest costs, and execution risk. The broader U.S. market ended a quiet, light‑volume holiday session near record levels, with the “Santa Claus rally” period underway and the S&P 500 still within striking distance of the 7,000 milestone. [1]
As of 7:48 p.m. ET Friday in New York, CRWV was trading around $76.42, down roughly 3% from the prior close, after ranging between $75.73 and $79.34 during the session. Regular U.S. exchange trading has ended for the day, and liquidity is typically thinner into the close of extended hours—an important detail for investors planning entries or exits ahead of Monday’s reopening.
Why CoreWeave stock is in focus heading into year-end
CoreWeave has become one of the most closely watched “picks-and-shovels” names in the AI boom, renting out GPU‑accelerated compute—largely built around Nvidia hardware—to hyperscalers, AI labs, and large enterprises. That positioning has driven blockbuster agreements and a rapidly growing contracted backlog, but it has also forced the company to finance an expensive buildout cycle at a time when markets are increasingly sensitive to leverage, dilution, and “AI bubble” narratives. [2]
Two themes are dominating investor debate right now:
- Contract strength and visibility: long-duration deals with major counterparties, plus a large backlog.
- Capital intensity: rising debt, interest expense, and periodic timing hiccups tied to data center buildouts.
The debt-and-dilution question: convertible notes moved back into the spotlight
A key recent catalyst was CoreWeave’s convertible financing. In early December, the company announced a proposed $2 billion convertible senior notes offering due 2031, then priced an upsized $2.25 billion deal at 1.75%, with an option for additional notes. In its subsequent SEC filing, CoreWeave disclosed it ultimately completed a $2.5875 billion offering (including the full exercise of the additional purchase option). [3]
The mechanics matter for equity holders:
- The initial conversion price was set around $107.80 per share (a premium to the stock at the time of pricing). [4]
- The company also entered into capped call transactions, with an initial cap price disclosed at $215.60 per share, and the SEC filing described an approximate $340 million cost for those capped calls—structures often used to reduce dilution risk within a defined range. [5]
Market reaction to convertibles can be mixed: they may provide capital at an attractive coupon, but investors frequently interpret them as a signal that further financing—and potential dilution—could be ongoing in a capex-heavy business model. [6]
Credit markets are watching, too. Fitch published a note in December addressing CoreWeave’s new convertible issuance (including a rating reference), underscoring that this is not just an equity story—it’s a balance-sheet story. [7]
The bull case: mega-contracts with Meta, OpenAI, and Nvidia—and a $55.6B backlog
CoreWeave’s most compelling support remains the scale of demand it is capturing:
- Meta deal: Reuters reported that CoreWeave signed an agreement with Meta valued at about $14.2 billion through December 2031 (with an option to extend into 2032), a deal positioned as both a growth driver and a customer-diversification milestone. [8]
- OpenAI expansion: Reuters also reported a new $6.5 billion expansion with OpenAI in September, bringing the total partnership value to about $22.4 billion. In that Reuters interview, CEO Michael Intrator framed demand as running ahead of infrastructure supply, saying the market is “incredibly behind” on delivering what customers need. [9]
- Nvidia capacity backstop: Reuters reported a $6.3 billion agreement in which Nvidia would purchase unsold capacity through April 2032, which Barclays analysts characterized as a meaningful positive because it cushions CoreWeave against demand swings and addresses investor concerns about filling capacity beyond its biggest customers. [10]
On the company’s own numbers, CoreWeave’s latest quarterly report highlighted rapid revenue growth and expanding contracted visibility. In its Q3 2025 results, CoreWeave reported $1.3647 billion in revenue for the quarter and disclosed a revenue backlog of $55.6 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025, with Intrator pointing to record revenue and a backlog that “almost” doubled. [11]
That backlog figure has become one of the most-cited bull-case metrics, because it implies multi-year demand locked into committed contracts—assuming CoreWeave can deliver capacity on schedule and manage costs.
The bear case: capital intensity, interest expense, and execution risk
The same earnings release that showcased growth also reinforced the central risk: profitability and cash flow are being squeezed by the cost of scaling.
In Q3 2025, CoreWeave reported:
- Interest expense, net: about $310.6 million for the quarter
- Net loss: about $110.1 million
- Operating income: about $51.9 million (with operating margin substantially lower than the year-ago period) [12]
Debt load is another pressure point. In a September 30, 2025 SEC filing, CoreWeave disclosed total indebtedness of $14.0 billion at that date, along with commentary highlighting the burden of interest and principal payments. [13]
Operationally, timing issues have already shown up in guidance. Reuters reported that CoreWeave trimmed its annual revenue forecast after a delay at a third‑party data center partner, taking some shine off strong quarterly results. CFO Nitin Agrawal forecast 2025 revenue of $5.05B to $5.15B, which Reuters noted was below the company’s prior projection and below the analyst estimate cited by LSEG. [14]
And as the AI infrastructure buildout broadens, financing structures are becoming more complex across the sector. The Financial Times recently reported that tech groups—including CoreWeave—have been shifting significant data center spending off balance sheets using special purpose vehicles financed by large Wall Street firms, a trend that can obscure risk even as it accelerates buildouts. [15]
Sentiment check: insider selling, short sellers, and the “AI bubble” narrative
CoreWeave’s stock has been unusually volatile since its IPO, and that volatility has been amplified by float dynamics, insider sales, and high-profile short theses.
- Lockup and insider sales: The Financial Times reported that after CoreWeave’s lock-up expiration, insiders sold more than $1 billion in shares, including large block trades, fueling debate over valuation and customer concentration. [16]
- Kerrisdale’s short thesis: Business Insider reported that Kerrisdale Capital published a short report arguing CoreWeave is a “debt fueled GPU rental business with no moat,” and said it saw fair value far below then-current prices. [17]
- Jim Chanos on data centers: MarketWatch summarized comments from prominent short seller Jim Chanos, who has warned that AI data centers can be capital-intensive with lower returns and likened parts of the buildout cycle to prior bubble dynamics. [18]
Short positioning metrics vary by source and reporting date, but they remain a frequently cited datapoint because they can amplify moves in either direction—especially in thin liquidity. For example, MarketBeat reported short interest of 32.95 million shares (about 8.53% of the float) as of Nov. 14, 2025. [19]
Analyst forecasts for CoreWeave stock: wide dispersion, but upside implied in many targets
Wall Street forecasts for CRWV remain split between “AI infrastructure winner” enthusiasm and “balance-sheet risk” caution.
- TipRanks shows an average 12‑month price target around $130 and a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with targets spanning a wide range. [20]
- MarketBeat likewise shows a broad range of targets and a consensus that implies substantial upside from recent trading levels (while emphasizing dispersion). [21]
- MarketWatch lists an average recommendation of “Overweight” and an average target price in the mid‑$120s (based on its analyst tracking). [22]
Recent calls have also been notably fluid. Investing.com reported that JPMorgan downgraded CoreWeave to Neutral from Overweight and reduced its price target (citing supply-chain pressures and timing-related impacts). [23]
Meanwhile, Barron’s reported that Citi renewed coverage with a Buy rating but lowered its price target (and flagged risk), illustrating how even bullish notes are often paired with explicit caution around execution and financing. [24]
What investors should know before the next market session
Because the U.S. stock market is now closed for regular trading and will reopen after the weekend, investors focused on CoreWeave stock may want to track a short list of high-impact variables before Monday’s open:
- Extended-hours price action and liquidity: Late trading can exaggerate moves; consider using limit orders and sizing carefully when liquidity thins.
- Macro tone into year-end: Reuters highlighted that markets are finishing 2025 strong, with attention on Fed policy expectations and key releases next week, including the Fed’s meeting minutes. Rate expectations matter for highly levered, high-growth infrastructure plays. [25]
- Any weekend headlines tied to key customers and suppliers: CoreWeave’s demand narrative is intertwined with hyperscaler AI spend and Nvidia’s GPU roadmap; even adjacent news in the AI hardware ecosystem can move sentiment quickly. [26]
- Financing and filings: The company’s capital strategy (convertibles, facilities, or other funding) remains a market-moving topic. Monitor SEC filings for updates that can reshape dilution and debt expectations. [27]
- Execution updates on capacity delivery: The market has already reacted to timing-related issues in data center readiness; further clarity on buildout schedules can matter as much as demand headlines. [28]
- Short-seller and insider activity: With the stock at the center of a high-profile debate, incremental commentary from bears—or additional insider transactions—can influence Monday’s opening tone. [29]
Finally, earnings timing is approaching another potential catalyst window. Nasdaq shows an estimated next earnings date in early February 2026 (company confirmation is what ultimately matters), which may keep attention on backlog conversion, margins, and the path to funding future capacity. [30]
Bottom line: CoreWeave stock remains a high‑beta proxy for AI infrastructure optimism—supported by long-term demand signals and mega‑contracts, but challenged by the real-world math of financing, construction timelines, and cost of capital. Into the next session, CRWV is likely to trade on any marginal update that changes investor confidence in one of two stories: contracted growth converting cleanly into cash—or growth requiring ever more balance-sheet strain.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. investors.coreweave.com, 3. investors.coreweave.com, 4. investors.coreweave.com, 5. investors.coreweave.com, 6. www.investopedia.com, 7. www.fitchratings.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. investors.coreweave.com, 12. investors.coreweave.com, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.ft.com, 16. www.ft.com, 17. www.businessinsider.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketwatch.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.barrons.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.ft.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com
