New York — Dec. 26, 2025 (7:45 p.m. ET) — Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) closed the regular trading session near $36.20 per share and was little changed in late after-hours trading, capping a quiet, post-Christmas stretch as U.S. equities hover close to record levels. [1]
The broader market backdrop matters for Intel right now: thin liquidity and “Santa Claus rally” seasonality can magnify reactions to headlines—especially for a stock like INTC that has become a high-beta proxy for U.S. industrial policy, foundry ambitions, and AI supply-chain positioning. Reuters’ latest U.S. session recap described a light-volume day with the major indexes slipping only marginally while remaining on track for strong 2025 gains. [2]
With the regular session now closed and the weekend ahead, Intel investors are heading into the next trading day with a specific checklist: foundry credibility signals (particularly Intel 18A), political-risk volatility tied to the U.S. government’s stake, and a steady drumbeat of leadership and strategy headlines under CEO Lip-Bu Tan.
Where Intel stock stands heading into the weekend
Intel ended Friday’s session around $36.20, following a choppy December in which the shares traded above $40 earlier in the month before pulling back. Recent daily price history shows Intel touched a December high above $44 (intraday) and then retraced into the mid-$30s range by late month. [3]
For longer timeframes, MarketBeat estimates Intel is up roughly ~80% year to date and ~77% over the last 12 months, with a market capitalization around $170+ billion—a major rebound that has left Wall Street debating whether the move reflects improving fundamentals or a policy-and-partnership premium that could fade if execution disappoints. [4]
The biggest Intel headline risk right now: Foundry momentum and Intel 18A
Intel’s turnaround increasingly hinges on whether its foundry business can prove it can manufacture leading-edge chips competitively—at scale, on schedule, and with attractive yields.
A key new data point came this week from Reuters: Nvidia recently tested Intel’s 18A manufacturing process but “stopped moving forward,” according to sources. [5]
That’s notable because external validation from top-tier chip designers is one of the fastest ways Intel can change investor perceptions of its foundry effort. Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported that Nvidia and Broadcom were running manufacturing tests with Intel, a sign at the time that the companies were at least evaluating Intel’s process technology for potential contracts. [6]
While “testing” does not equal “production commitment,” investors have treated each incremental signal—positive or negative—as material.
Why the 18A yield conversation keeps resurfacing
Back in October, Reuters reported Intel CFO David Zinsner told investors that yields for Intel’s 18A process were not yet where they needed to be to support the right margins, and he suggested yields might not reach an industry-acceptable level until 2027. [7]
That timeline is crucial. The market is effectively pricing Intel on two parallel tracks:
- Near-term: CPU and platform cycles (PC and server) plus cost discipline
- Medium-term: foundry execution (18A credibility, customer wins, sustainable margins)
If the foundry track slips, Intel can still rally on PCs, servers, and financial engineering—but it becomes harder to justify a “national champion foundry” valuation.
What Intel last told investors: Q3 results, Q4 outlook, and supply constraints
Intel’s most recent quarterly report offered ammunition for both bulls and bears.
In its Q3 2025 release, Intel reported:
- Revenue of $13.7 billion, up 3% year over year
- Non-GAAP EPS of $0.23
- A Q4 2025 revenue outlook of $12.8B to $13.8B (with guidance excluding Altera after selling a majority stake) [8]
CEO Lip-Bu Tan framed the story around execution improvements and AI-driven demand for compute, while CFO David Zinsner emphasized that demand was running ahead of supply and said Intel expected that dynamic to persist into 2026—language that supports the “tight capacity + pricing discipline” narrative investors tend to reward. [9]
Reuters’ earnings follow-up in October added color: Intel’s December-quarter revenue forecast was described as slightly below LSEG estimates, even as investors welcomed cost progress and strategic funding. It also captured a bullish reaction from Michael Schulman, CIO at Running Point Capital, who cited “better-than-feared guidance,” “visible cost and gross margin progress,” and “fresh strategic funding” as key reasons the stock popped after-hours at the time. [10]
The “strategic funding” narrative: U.S. government stake, Nvidia, and SoftBank
Intel is not just trading on chips—it is trading on geopolitics and capital access.
U.S. government stake (CHIPS and Secure Enclave funding converted into equity)
Intel announced in August that the U.S. government would make an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock, funded by:
- $5.7B in remaining CHIPS Act grants previously awarded but not yet paid, plus
- $3.2B tied to the Secure Enclave program, with Intel reaffirming defense-related commitments. [11]
Reuters also reported that the arrangement involved the U.S. purchasing a ~9.9% stake for $8.9B, implying a significant strategic alignment between Intel and the administration’s domestic manufacturing agenda. [12]
Nvidia and SoftBank
Reuters has reported that Intel drew multibillion-dollar investments from Nvidia and SoftBank, contributing to the perception that Intel’s balance sheet and strategic relevance have improved—even as investors scrutinize whether these partnerships translate into durable operating momentum. [13]
The nuance for investors: strategic money can reduce downside tail risk and fund capex, but it does not automatically solve yield, product competitiveness, or customer adoption.
Leadership and governance: why Intel headlines have turned “political-capital markets”
Intel has been making news not only for silicon, but for people and policy.
Intel hires a Trump economic adviser to lead government affairs
Reuters reported Intel appointed Robin Colwell—described as a deputy assistant to the president and deputy director of the National Economic Council—as head of its government affairs office. The move comes months after the U.S. government took a 10% stake, and it underscores how central Washington has become to Intel’s investment case. [14]
CEO conflict-of-interest scrutiny
Reuters also reported in December that Intel implemented policies requiring CEO Lip-Bu Tan to recuse himself from certain decisions where conflicts could exist, after episodes in which Intel pursued deals that could have benefited Tan financially through his venture holdings. [15]
For investors, this governance thread matters because Intel’s strategy increasingly involves acquisitions, partnerships, and government relationships—areas where headline risk can translate into valuation swings.
Intel and AI: acquisitions, custom silicon, and the “catch-up” problem
Intel’s narrative is no longer limited to PCs and servers; it is trying to broaden into the infrastructure that is being built for AI—whether through CPUs feeding accelerators, custom ASIC services, or accelerators of its own.
Reuters reported Intel has explored an acquisition of AI chip startup SambaNova (via Bloomberg reporting), noting any deal would likely value SambaNova below its prior peak valuation and could bolster Intel’s AI ambitions after earlier attempts to gain traction versus Nvidia in AI GPUs fell short. [16]
At the same time, investors are watching for tangible product traction and ecosystem wins—because “AI strategy” without shipment momentum tends to be discounted quickly in public markets.
Analyst forecasts: where Wall Street sees INTC next
Wall Street remains cautious even after Intel’s strong 2025 run.
A Nasdaq.com analysis noted that, among a set of analysts covering Intel, only a minority rate the stock a buy, with the majority in hold territory, and it cited a 12-month median price target of about $39, implying limited upside from late-2025 levels. [17]
That mixed posture captures the current standoff:
- The bull case: strategic funding + cost cuts + improving execution + AI PC/server cycle + eventual foundry credibility
- The bear case: foundry timelines/yields + intense competition (AMD in CPUs, Nvidia in AI) + valuation already reflecting a lot of good news
Market context: why next week’s tape could feel jumpy
Reuters described Friday’s session as light volume with stocks near highs, noting the market is in the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window and that only a few trading days remain in the year. [18]
In that environment, Intel can move sharply on relatively small catalysts:
- a single “customer test” headline
- a policy comment on domestic chip incentives or procurement
- a new partnership / executive move
- a sell-side note about 18A readiness or margins
The exchange is closed now: what Intel investors should know before the next session
Because the regular Nasdaq session is closed and weekend headlines can reset Monday’s open, here’s a practical, Intel-specific watch list for the next trading day:
1) Track follow-up reporting on Nvidia and Intel 18A
Reuters’ reporting that Nvidia’s 18A testing “stopped moving forward” is the kind of story that can evolve—through clarifications about what “testing” covered, whether additional evaluation continues elsewhere, or whether timelines change. [19]
2) Separate “strategic investment” headlines from “foundry customer” validation
Intel can attract strategic capital while still struggling to secure high-volume external foundry customers at leading edge. Investors should watch for language that distinguishes:
- equity stakes / partnerships
vs. - wafer commitments, tape-outs, and production ramps
Reuters’ October report highlights just how central 18A yields and margin viability remain. [20]
3) Know the next major catalyst dates
Two calendar items that could drive Intel news flow and sentiment into early 2026:
- CES 2026 (Jan. 6–9 in Las Vegas), where PC and AI device narratives often accelerate [21]
- Intel’s next earnings window, with multiple event-calendar trackers estimating a late-January report (unconfirmed) [22]
4) Expect thin year-end liquidity and bigger-than-usual gaps
When volume is lighter, the stock can gap on Monday on relatively modest incremental news—especially in widely held names with heavy retail and options activity.
Bottom line: Intel’s stock is no longer “just a chip stock”
Intel stock in late 2025 sits at the intersection of manufacturing execution, AI infrastructure demand, and U.S. industrial policy—with CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s dealmaking and governance headlines adding a new layer of volatility. [23]
The market’s verdict into 2026 likely comes down to a simple question: can Intel translate strategic funding and political relevance into repeatable operating performance—especially in foundry—before competitors widen the gap further?
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.intc.com, 9. www.intc.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.intc.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.ces.tech, 22. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 23. www.reuters.com
