Home Depot Stock (HD) Update: Year-End Trading, 2026 Outlook, and What Investors Should Watch Before Monday’s Open

As of 11:10 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend, with the next regular session set for Monday, December 29. In the final stretch of 2025, The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) remains a closely watched bellwether for U.S. housing activity, consumer confidence, and professional contractor (“Pro”) demand—three forces that continue to define the stock’s direction heading into 2026.

Home Depot shares finished Friday at $349.78, after trading between roughly $346.99 and $350.05 during the session. ^[1]

Where Home Depot stock stands after Friday’s session

Friday’s post-Christmas session across Wall Street was muted, with major indexes slightly lower and trading volume notably light—typical conditions for year-end markets when many institutional desks are already de-risked. The S&P 500 edged down to 6,929.94, the Dow slipped to 48,710.97, and the Nasdaq fell to 23,593.10. ^[2]

Against that backdrop, Home Depot’s close near $350 keeps the stock in a zone where investors are weighing two competing narratives:

A still-stressed housing cycle that has limited big-ticket discretionary remodeling, and
A multi-year strategic shift toward the Pro customer—including acquisitions—designed to strengthen growth even when DIY demand softens.

The biggest Home Depot news moving forecasts: Management’s 2026 outlook and “Market Recovery Case”

The most market-relevant Home Depot update this month came during the company’s December 9, 2025 strategic update tied to its Investor and Analyst Conference.

Home Depot’s preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook

Management framed 2026 expectations around a home improvement market that remains constrained, projecting:

Home improvement market: about -1% to +1%
Comparable sales: approximately flat to +2%
Total sales growth: approximately +2.5% to +4.5%
Operating margin: approximately 12.4% to 12.6%
Diluted EPS growth: approximately flat to +4% ^[3]

Wall Street focused on the fact that the company’s base-case outlook landed below some consensus expectations—particularly for comparable sales and earnings growth—underscoring that Home Depot does not yet see a clean demand snapback from easing rates alone. Reuters reported that Home Depot’s flat-to-2% comp-sales view for fiscal 2026 was below an LSEG-compiled consensus of 2.34%, and that its 0–4% adjusted EPS growth outlook was below an estimated 5.6% EPS growth expectation. ^[4]

The “Market Recovery Case” investors should understand

At the same time, Home Depot also published a Market Recovery Case—essentially a scenario for what performance could look like once housing activity and larger-project spending regain momentum. In that scenario, the company outlined:

Total sales growth: approximately 5% to 6%
Total comparable sales growth: approximately 4% to 5%
Operating profit growth faster than sales
Diluted EPS growth: approximately mid-to-high-single-digits ^[5]

CFO Richard McPhail tied that upside case directly to housing normalization and pent-up demand for larger projects. ^[6]

Why it matters for HD stock: Investors are effectively pricing a debate about timing—whether the company is stuck in a sluggish demand band for longer, or whether the market begins to resemble Home Depot’s recovery case sometime in 2026.

Earnings reality check: What Home Depot said in Q3 fiscal 2025

Home Depot’s most recent quarterly report (Q3 fiscal 2025) helped explain why management is cautious.

For the third quarter of fiscal 2025, Home Depot reported:

Comparable sales:+0.2% (U.S. comps +0.1%)
Net earnings:$3.6 billion (or $3.62 per diluted share)
Adjusted diluted EPS:$3.74 ^[7]

CEO Ted Decker said results missed expectations largely due to “the lack of storms” and that consumer uncertainty and pressure in housing were disproportionately impacting demand. ^[8]

Updated fiscal 2025 guidance (reaffirmed again on Dec. 9)

In that same reporting cycle—and reiterated at the December conference—Home Depot guided for fiscal 2025:

Total sales growth: approximately 3%
- including about $2 billion in incremental sales expected from GMS
Comparable sales: “slightly positive” (for the comparable 52-week period)
Operating margin: approximately 12.6%
Diluted EPS: decline of approximately 6% from fiscal 2024
Adjusted diluted EPS: decline of approximately 5% from fiscal 2024 ^[9]

Investor takeaway: Even with revenue growth supported by acquisitions, Home Depot is still managing through a phase where profitability and big-project demand are under pressure—conditions that typically keep a lid on aggressive multiple expansion.

The housing backdrop: Lower mortgage rates, but turnover still tight

Home Depot’s “big-ticket” categories—kitchens, baths, flooring, and major remodels—tend to strengthen when homeowners have confidence and financing is attractive. Mortgage rates have eased versus last year, but housing turnover remains constrained.

Mortgage rates: down year-over-year

Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.18% as of December 24, 2025, down from 6.85% a year earlier. ^[10]

Existing-home sales: improving modestly, inventory still a constraint

The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reported that existing-home sales rose 0.5% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million, with inventory at 1.43 million units (about 4.2 months’ supply). ^[11]

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun pointed to lower mortgage rates as a driver of the recent sales improvement, while also noting that inventory growth has begun to stall and many homeowners are not rushing to list during winter months. ^[12]

Why HD investors care: A market where homeowners stay put can still support repair-and-maintenance spending—but it often delays the larger discretionary remodels that lift ticket sizes and category mix. This is one reason Home Depot is leaning harder into the Pro ecosystem and specialty trade distribution.

Pro strategy and M&A: Home Depot’s bet on “win the Pro”

One of the clearest long-term strategic signals is Home Depot’s push deeper into building materials distribution to serve Pros more holistically.

GMS acquisition is completed—and central to the Pro thesis

Home Depot announced it completed the acquisition of GMS through its subsidiary SRS Distribution on September 4, 2025, at a total enterprise value (including net debt) of approximately $5.5 billion. ^[13]

CEO Ted Decker said GMS strengthens SRS’s position as a multi-category building materials distributor and supports serving Pros across entire projects, highlighting cross-selling and fulfillment advantages. ^[14]

How this can affect the stock: In a choppy DIY cycle, investors often reward retailers that can demonstrate resilient Pro demand, better jobsite penetration, and improved delivery/fulfillment economics—especially if integrations translate into higher wallet share and stickier B2B relationships.

Wall Street forecasts: What analysts are projecting for HD stock

Analyst views remain broadly constructive—even while near-term growth expectations have been reset lower.

A widely followed compilation of analyst forecasts shows:

Consensus rating: “Buy”
Average 12-month price target: about $421
Target range: roughly $350 to $497 ^[15]

It’s worth noting that targets can move quickly around guidance changes, interest-rate expectations, and housing data. But the big picture is that the Street’s base case still implies meaningful upside from current levels—if the company can stabilize comps and expand earnings again.

Dividend and income profile: What shareholders just received

Home Depot remains a major dividend name for long-term investors.

The company’s board has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.30 per share multiple times in 2025, and the most recent payment was December 18, 2025. ^[16]
Yahoo Finance key statistics list a trailing annual dividend rate of $9.20 and a trailing dividend yield around 2.65% (figures vary with price). ^[17]

What investors should know before the next session on Monday, Dec. 29

Because the NYSE is closed now, the next actionable moment is Monday’s open. Here are the most practical items to monitor over the weekend and into early Monday:

1) Watch housing data that can shift sentiment intraday

NAR noted its Pending Home Sales Index for November is scheduled for release on December 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET—after the market opens—making it a potential intraday catalyst for housing-linked names, including Home Depot. ^[18]

2) Track mortgage-rate direction and 10-year yield sensitivity

Even small weekly moves in mortgage rates can influence the “bigger projects are coming back” narrative. Freddie Mac’s latest reading (6.18% for the 30-year) supports the idea that financing pressure is easing versus last year—but not yet low enough to fully unlock turnover-driven demand. ^[19]

3) Revisit the December 9 framework: base case vs. recovery case

Home Depot has clearly defined two lanes for investors:

Base case: modest growth, comps flat to +2%
Recovery case: comps +4% to +5% and faster profit growth ^[20]

If markets reprice the odds toward the recovery case—often triggered by better housing prints or faster rate declines—HD can respond quickly.

4) Know the next major company catalyst: earnings timing

Earnings dates can shift, but market calendars widely expect Home Depot’s next report around February 24, 2026. ^[21]

Between now and then, investors typically focus on:

holiday-season read-throughs,
housing prints,
and any incremental commentary on Pro demand and acquisition integration.

5) Expect year-end trading effects

With only a few sessions left in 2025, price action can be influenced by:

tax-loss selling and rotation,
fund rebalancing,
thin liquidity that exaggerates moves.

Friday’s quiet tape was a reminder that year-end microstructure can sometimes matter as much as fundamentals in the short run. ^[22]

Bottom line for Home Depot stock heading into Monday

Home Depot enters the final days of 2025 near $350 with a debate that likely defines the stock into early 2026: How long will housing pressure and consumer caution suppress big-ticket projects—and can Pro momentum plus distribution acquisitions offset it?

Management’s cautious 2026 base-case outlook has lowered the near-term bar, but the company’s Market Recovery Case provides a clear roadmap for upside if housing activity and larger-project spending reaccelerate. ^[23]