New York (ET) — As of 1:43 a.m. on Saturday, December 27, 2025, U.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend.
That timing matters for Venture Global, Inc. (NYSE: VG) because the stock is heading into the final trading days of the year with a combustible mix of catalysts: year-end “Santa rally” conditions in the broader market, a highly scrutinized post-IPO slide, ongoing arbitration fights with major LNG buyers, and fresh financing and expansion steps tied to its flagship Louisiana export projects. [1]
Below is what investors should know before the next regular session (Monday, December 29, 2025), plus the latest headlines and the range of forecasts shaping sentiment. [2]
Where Venture Global stock stands heading into the next session
Venture Global ended the most recent session (Friday, Dec. 26) at $6.95, down about 3.9% on the day, after trading between roughly $6.84 and $7.30 on volume of about 11.3 million shares, according to consolidated market data.
The bigger picture is what’s kept VG in the spotlight: the shares are down roughly 72% from the $25 IPO price set in January, an unusually steep drawdown for one of the year’s marquee energy listings. [3]
Barron’s summed up the market’s current posture bluntly: Venture Global has been one of the major IPO disappointments of 2025, with legal disputes and oversupply worries overshadowing operational growth. [4]
The current market backdrop: thin holiday trading, indexes near highs
Venture Global is trading into a broader tape that remains upbeat—even if day-to-day moves have been muted.
On Friday (Dec. 26), Wall Street finished slightly lower in a quiet, post-holiday session as trading volume stayed light, but major indexes remain near record levels and still posted weekly gains. [5]
Looking into the year-end stretch, Reuters also noted the S&P 500 is within striking distance of the 7,000 level, with investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s rate path and the broader handoff from mega-cap leadership to more cyclical areas. [6]
For VG specifically, this matters because a “risk-on” tape can help stabilize beaten-down high-beta names—but it doesn’t erase company-specific risks like litigation outcomes and LNG price sensitivity.
What’s driving Venture Global: the four themes investors keep circling
1) Arbitration and litigation risk remains the headline overhang
Venture Global’s commissioning strategy—selling LNG cargoes during ramp-up at market prices before long-term deliveries fully kick in—has been lucrative, but it’s also the root of its legal storms.
In October, Reuters reported BP won an arbitration case tied to delayed contracted LNG from Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass facility; BP is seeking more than $1 billion in damages, and a separate damages hearing is expected in 2026. [7]
In November, Reuters reported Shell challenged an arbitration decision in New York court, alleging the process was flawed due to missing or undisclosed documents. A notable outside perspective came from Agnieszka Ason of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, who characterized post-award challenges as a fairly standard procedural move for a losing party—though the bar to overturn arbitration awards is typically high. [8]
And in December, Reuters reported Venture Global filed a response pushing back against Shell’s fraud allegations and accusing Shell of breaching confidentiality in the arbitration process. [9]
Why investors care: these outcomes can influence not only damages and legal costs, but also how future customers and lenders price risk around Venture Global’s contracting model.
2) Operations: Plaquemines ramp and Calcasieu Pass transition to contracted volumes
Operationally, the company is still expanding—and that creates a tug-of-war for the stock.
Reuters reported in October that Venture Global sought approval to introduce natural gas into the final part of its Plaquemines LNG plant, a step that would enable production across the facility’s full authorized capacity (reported as 27.2 mtpa). [10]
Meanwhile, Calcasieu Pass has been moving from commissioning economics toward long-term contracted deliveries. Reuters reported BP began loading its first contractual cargo from Calcasieu Pass in April after commissioning completion—an operational milestone, even as it underscores the timing disputes behind the arbitrations. [11]
Why investors care: commissioning periods can boost near-term cash flows in tight markets, but shifting into long-term contract pricing can compress margins—especially if spot LNG prices weaken.
3) New long-term LNG deals help the bull case—especially in Asia
Despite the legal noise, Venture Global has continued signing long-dated sales contracts that support project finance and long-run utilization.
In November, Reuters reported Venture Global signed a 20-year LNG supply deal with Mitsui for 1 million tonnes per annum beginning in 2029, framing it as part of Japan’s push to secure energy supply for a growing data center footprint. Reuters cited Wood Mackenzie analysts projecting data centers could drive a large share of Japan’s electricity-demand growth by 2034. [12]
Why investors care: more contracted volumes can lower financing risk and increase predictability—but investors will weigh contract terms and future LNG market balance (more on that below).
4) Financing and credit: big numbers, real interest costs
In December, Venture Global announced its Plaquemines subsidiary closed a $3 billion senior secured notes offering in two tranches: 6.125% due 2030 and 6.500% due 2034. [13]
On the credit side, Fitch published a rating action referencing the $3.0 billion notes at “BB-” (per Fitch’s headline), and noted significant commissioning and ramp-up costs in the period ahead. [14]
Separately, S&P Global Ratings published an action indicating a ‘BB+’ rating for Venture Global Plaquemines LNG’s senior secured notes (per S&P’s regulatory-post headline). [15]
Why investors care: high-yield ratings and mid-single-digit coupons are workable in LNG project finance, but they raise the bar for execution—especially if LNG prices soften or litigation costs surprise.
The LNG market outlook: “growth story” meets “glut anxiety”
Two things can be true at once: LNG demand is structurally supported in many regions, and the market can still become oversupplied.
Reuters reported U.S. LNG exports and gas demand for liquefaction hit record levels in November, helped by cooler conditions and strong output, with Henry Hub prices higher on the month. [16]
But Reuters Breakingviews flagged a more cautionary medium-term narrative: a global push to expand LNG supply may collide with accelerating renewables, batteries, and shifting demand patterns—particularly in China—raising the risk of a more punishing glut later this decade. [17]
What this means for VG: Venture Global’s equity story is deeply tied to the forward curve for LNG and the timing of when its large-scale capacity transitions from commissioning/spot exposure into long-term contract structures.
Latest financial performance and guidance: strong growth, with arbitration reserves in the mix
In its third-quarter 2025 update, Venture Global reported revenue of about $3.3 billion and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of about $1.5 billion for the quarter, along with positive net income. [18]
The company also reduced and tightened full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $6.35B–$6.50B, citing assumptions around remaining uncontracted cargo economics and the impact of arbitration-related reserves. [19]
In its investor presentation, Venture Global highlighted $3.5 billion of cash and restricted cash (as of Sept. 30, 2025) and described ongoing arbitration reserving that it expects to continue at a quarterly pace (subject to developments). [20]
Dividend: what income-focused investors should (and shouldn’t) expect
Venture Global declared a cash dividend of $0.017 per share, payable Dec. 31, 2025, to shareholders of record as of Dec. 15, 2025. [21]
Because the record date has already passed, this is mainly a reminder for investors evaluating VG’s emerging capital-return posture: the dividend exists, but at current prices it is not the central part of the thesis compared with litigation outcomes and LNG fundamentals.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: wide ranges, shared uncertainty
Analyst targets on VG remain all over the map, which is usually the market’s way of admitting: “we can model the assets, but we can’t model the courtroom.”
A few reference points:
- StockAnalysis summarizes a consensus view of “Buy” with an average price target around $14.58 (implying triple-digit upside from recent levels), with targets reportedly spanning from roughly $9 to $20. [22]
- MarketBeat lists a consensus price target around $14.25, with a stated range from $8 to $20. [23]
- Barron’s highlighted Citi cutting its price target to $9 while pointing to weak LNG prices and arbitration disputes as a “prolonged overhang,” and noted the Street’s average target hovering around the mid-teens. [24]
Treat these targets less like precise destinations and more like scenario labels: “legal risk resolves,” “legal risk drags,” “LNG prices cooperate,” “LNG prices don’t.”
Next earnings: what’s known vs. what’s “calendar math”
Venture Global’s next earnings date has not been confirmed by the company in the sources above, but market calendars commonly point to early March 2026. For example, Investing.com and Zacks both list the next report around March 5, 2026 (before market open, per their listings). [25]
The NYSE is closed now: what to watch before Monday’s session
Because it’s Saturday, the NYSE is closed; the next regular trading session begins Monday morning. [26]
Here are the practical “before the bell” items most likely to matter for VG:
Legal headline risk (can hit any time).
Updates in the Shell challenge, BP damages process, or any new settlement signals can move the stock sharply because they change the perceived tail risk. [27]
Energy/LNG narrative shifts.
Weekend moves in commodities don’t trade through VG directly, but sentiment often reprices at Monday’s open—especially in a year-end tape where liquidity is thin. The bigger watch item is whether “LNG glut” takes over the narrative or whether demand/security headlines push LNG tighter again. [28]
Execution signals at Plaquemines.
Any regulatory approvals or operational milestones tied to ramping Plaquemines toward full capacity can support the bull case—provided they’re not paired with worsening customer disputes. [29]
Balance-sheet and credit read-through.
The $3B notes deal provides capital, but at meaningful interest rates; investors will keep pressure-testing how cash flows, commissioning costs, and arbitration reserves intersect. [30]
Broader risk appetite into year-end.
If the “Santa rally” narrative continues and indexes remain buoyant, beaten-down names sometimes catch relief bids. But the same light-volume environment can amplify downside moves on bad headlines. [31]
Bottom line
Venture Global stock is entering the next session as a high-volatility LNG growth story trapped inside a litigation and market-cycle story. Operational progress and long-term contracts (like the Mitsui deal) support the long-run thesis, while arbitration outcomes and LNG oversupply fears keep the near-term risk premium elevated. [32]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. ventureglobal.com, 14. www.fitchratings.com, 15. www.spglobal.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. investors.ventureglobal.com, 19. investors.ventureglobal.com, 20. s205.q4cdn.com, 21. investors.ventureglobal.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.barrons.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.nyse.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. ventureglobal.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com
