NEW YORK — It is 4:03 a.m. ET on Saturday, December 27, 2025.
With U.S. equity markets closed for the weekend, Intel Corporation shares are effectively “on pause” after the last regular session—giving investors a window to digest a dense stack of headlines that have re-shaped the bull-and-bear debate around Intel stock (NASDAQ: INTC) heading into the final trading days of 2025 and the start of 2026.
Intel stock price right now: where INTC left off Friday
Intel shares last closed at about $36.20 on Friday, Dec. 26, with the stock showing only a marginal move versus the prior close. [1]
Intel’s own investor-relations tape also showed after-hours trading slightly lower (around $36.18) later Friday, a reminder that “headline risk” can still nudge the stock even when the main market is shut. [2]
Context matters: Friday’s broader market action was muted in light post-holiday trading, with major U.S. indexes finishing only slightly lower while still posting strong year-to-date gains—an environment where single-stock narratives (like Intel’s) can dominate attention. [3]
Is the stock market open now?
No. Nasdaq is closed on weekends, and regular trading hours resume Monday through Friday, 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Nasdaq also notes extended-hours sessions (commonly 4:00 a.m.–9:30 a.m. ET pre-market and 4:00 p.m.–8:00 p.m. ET after-hours), depending on broker access and eligibility. [4]
That means the next real “price discovery” moment for Intel stock arrives Monday morning—and any weekend developments (policy, partnerships, reporting, unexpected leaks) can translate into a gap up or down at the open.
Why Intel stock is in the spotlight: three storylines driving the tape
Intel has been trading less like a sleepy legacy semiconductor name and more like a national-strategy / industrial-policy / AI-supply-chain proxy. The biggest drivers:
1) The U.S. government’s Intel stake: strategic backstop—or new complexity?
A central pillar of the 2025 Intel story is the Trump administration agreement that brought the U.S. government in as a shareholder. Intel’s own release described a purchase of 433.3 million shares at $20.47 per share (about a 9.9% stake), framed as passive ownership with no board representation. [5]
Reuters has also reported the deal involved $5.7 billion in cash tied to CHIPS-related funding, and portrayed it as a political and strategic turning point that helped give Intel a “too strategic to fail” aura in the market. [6]
Later Reuters reporting outlined how Intel amended aspects of its CHIPS Act arrangement, including issuance mechanics and constraints around buybacks/dividends and certain transactions—guardrails that matter for equity holders evaluating capital return scenarios. [7]
Investor takeaway: this “government-as-shareholder” structure can be read as supportive (strategic priority, potential partner magnet), but it can also be read as a new layer of constraints and political risk—especially if Washington’s objectives ever diverge from what public-market investors want.
2) Nvidia’s $5B Intel investment and partnership: cleared by regulators, but the foundry question remains
Intel’s collaboration with Nvidia has become one of the most market-moving “credibility signals” for the turnaround.
Nvidia announced it would invest $5 billion in Intel common stock and collaborate on data center and PC products, including x86 designs integrating Nvidia technologies (for example, RTX GPU chiplets in x86 SoCs). [8]
In mid-December, Reuters reported that U.S. antitrust agencies cleared the investment, citing a notice posted by the Federal Trade Commission. [9]
The FTC’s own early-termination listing shows the transaction status as “Granted” for “NVIDIA Corporation; Intel Corporation,” dated December 18, 2025. [10]
But investors keep circling one core issue: does Nvidia become a major external foundry customer for Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing? Reuters previously noted the collaboration would not necessarily mean Intel manufactures Nvidia’s most important compute chips, while still leaving room for Intel to supply CPUs and packaging for joint products. [11]
Even more pointed: Reuters’ deep-dive report this week said Nvidia tested Intel’s 18A process but stopped moving forward, according to sources—an uncomfortable data point for the “Intel Foundry wins big customers soon” thesis. [12]
Investor takeaway: regulatory clearance reduces uncertainty around the investment closing mechanics, but it doesn’t settle the highest-stakes question—whether Intel Foundry can consistently win and retain top-tier external demand at competitive economics.
3) SoftBank’s $2B investment: another vote of confidence
In August, Intel and SoftBank disclosed a $2 billion investment agreement, with Intel stating SoftBank would pay $23 per share (subject to closing conditions). [13]
SoftBank’s own release likewise confirmed the $23 per share term and framed the investment around enabling advanced technologies that support AI-era infrastructure. [14]
Investor takeaway: SoftBank’s capital helps the balance-sheet narrative and signals strategic interest, but equity investors still need Intel’s operating results—especially foundry execution—to do the heavy lifting long-term.
The bullish case for Intel stock: “turnaround traction” plus strategic capital
A more optimistic read of Intel’s setup leans on improving execution and clearer financial footing.
In Intel’s Q3 2025 financial release, the company reported $13.7B revenue (up 3% YoY) and provided Q4 2025 guidance of $12.8B–$13.8B revenue, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.08 (and GAAP EPS of $(0.14)). [15]
CEO Lip-Bu Tan described progress against strategic priorities and argued AI demand is creating opportunities across Intel’s portfolio, including x86 platforms and foundry services. [16]
CFO David Zinsner also pointed to the U.S. government funding and strategic investments (including Nvidia and SoftBank) as strengthening operational flexibility, and said demand was outpacing supply with expectations that the trend could persist into 2026. [17]
Reuters coverage around those results captured how investors embraced the cost-cutting and the strategic funding package, while also noting that Intel’s stock performance in 2025 has been dramatic. [18]
Outside experts quoted by Reuters added to the “bull narrative,” including Ben Bajarin (CEO, Creative Strategies) saying Intel has “turned a corner” and looks like a strong setup for 2026. [19]
Bottom line for the bull case: Intel now has more capital runway, a national-strategy halo, and enough operational improvement to keep the turnaround story investable—if manufacturing and product execution keeps compounding.
The bear case: foundry yields, execution risk, and “policy stock” volatility
Intel’s skeptics argue that the company’s most valuable ambition—reclaiming leading-edge manufacturing credibility while building a customer-facing foundry—still has the hardest work ahead.
Foundry execution: the 18A “yield” debate is still central
Reuters reported in August that Intel was struggling with yield levels for its 18A process and that low yields can compress margins or force unprofitable shipping early in a ramp. [20]
Earlier Reuters reporting also discussed timeline slippage for 18A for potential contract-manufacturing customers, underscoring that schedules—especially for external customers—can move. [21]
Then in October, Reuters quoted CFO Zinsner warning that yields for advanced 18A manufacturing would remain below industry standards and not reach “acceptable” levels until 2027, reinforcing the idea that the foundry turnaround may be a multi-year grind rather than a quick win. [22]
Governance and conflicts: CEO scrutiny is part of the story
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s dealmaking strengths have helped reshape Intel’s funding and partnerships—but Reuters has reported scrutiny around potential conflicts tied to his venture portfolio, including board-level pushback and the need for recusals in certain situations. [23]
Analysts: “not over,” and valuation matters
Reuters’ October coverage highlighted that analysts warned the turnaround is far from finished, citing Bernstein analysts urging caution. [24]
That same Reuters report also pointed to Intel trading at a notably elevated forward earnings multiple versus some peers at the time—exactly the kind of metric investors debate when a turnaround stock re-rates quickly. [25]
Bottom line for the bear case: Intel’s rally prices in meaningful improvement, but foundry yields and execution timelines remain the high-stakes variables—and the company now carries additional political and governance headlines that can amplify volatility.
Product catalysts: Panther Lake on 18A and CES 2026
One of the clearest near-term catalysts is Intel’s PC roadmap.
Intel’s October press release positioned Core Ultra Series 3 (“Panther Lake”) as the first client SoC platform built on Intel 18A, with Intel saying Panther Lake is in production, targeting high-volume ramp, and aiming for broad availability starting January 2026. [26]
Intel’s CES page says the company will be at CES in Las Vegas, January 5–9, 2026, and references the global launch of Core Ultra Series 3 processors, codenamed Panther Lake. [27]
Why this matters for INTC stock: the market often treats major client-platform ramps as “proof points” for manufacturing readiness and competitiveness—especially when the narrative centers on a leading-edge node like 18A.
Wall Street forecasts: ratings are cautious, but targets imply modest upside
Even with the rally, third-party analyst dashboards still show restrained enthusiasm—more “wait and see” than “all-in.”
- TipRanks recently showed a Hold consensus rating, with an average price target around $38.20, implying mid-single-digit upside from recent levels. [28]
- MarketBeat also summarized a mostly neutral Street posture and referenced Intel’s Q4 guidance versus a lower consensus EPS estimate, reflecting a market still trying to calibrate what’s sustainable. [29]
How to interpret this: in a stock that has already re-rated sharply, “modest upside” targets can mean analysts want clearer evidence on (1) foundry yields and customer traction, and (2) durable margin structure as Intel invests heavily.
What investors should know before the next trading session
Because markets are closed right now, the practical question becomes: what could matter most when trading reopens Monday?
1) Watch for weekend headline risk (policy + partnerships)
Intel is now unusually sensitive to:
- U.S. industrial policy and any follow-on commentary about government equity stakes or CHIPS-style structures. [30]
- Updates around the Nvidia relationship—especially anything that clarifies whether Intel Foundry becomes a deeper manufacturing partner, or whether collaboration remains mostly at the platform/CPU/packaging layer. [31]
2) Know the hours—and the risks—if you trade extended sessions
Nasdaq’s schedule outlines standard hours and extended sessions (where available via broker). Liquidity is typically thinner in extended hours, and price swings can be sharper. [32]
3) Key upcoming catalysts to keep on your radar
- CES 2026 (Jan. 5–9) and Panther Lake messaging—product narrative can move sentiment quickly in semiconductors. [33]
- Q4 earnings timing: Intel’s IR calendar currently shows no upcoming events scheduled, so investors should treat many “earnings date” listings as estimates until Intel formally announces. [34]
- Foundry yield and customer traction: the market has repeatedly signaled that 18A progress is the gating variable for a long-duration rerating. [35]
Summary: Intel stock heads into Monday’s reopen near the mid-$36 range after a quiet Friday close, with the company’s narrative dominated by strategic capital (U.S. government stake, Nvidia, SoftBank), an execution-heavy turnaround under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, and the still-unresolved question of whether Intel Foundry can convert 18A ambition into consistent yields and marquee external customers. [36]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.intc.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.intc.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.ftc.gov, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.intc.com, 14. group.softbank, 15. www.intc.com, 16. www.intc.com, 17. www.intc.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.intc.com, 27. www.intel.com, 28. www.tipranks.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. www.intel.com, 34. www.intc.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.nasdaq.com
