New York time check: It’s 3:59 a.m. ET on Saturday, December 27, 2025 in New York.
That means U.S. stock exchanges are closed for the weekend—and the next regular session (for Nasdaq-listed stocks like Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI)) is Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET, barring any market-wide closures. [1]
Below is a market-aware, news-driven look at RGTI stock heading into the next session—covering the latest price action, recent catalysts, analyst forecasts, and the key risks and signals investors should track in the thin, end-of-year tape.
RGTI stock snapshot: where Rigetti stands heading into the weekend
Rigetti shares last traded around $22.38, after a sharp down move (about -8.6% vs. the prior close). The session’s reported range was roughly $22.34–$24.51, with about 28.3 million shares traded.
That drop matters not just because it’s big in percentage terms, but because it’s happening into a holiday-thinned market, when liquidity can evaporate and “theme stocks” can whip around on sentiment.
MarketBeat’s recap of Friday’s move put the slide at -8.7% to about $22.38, noting the day’s volume was well below the stock’s average and highlighting the “what’s next” question that tends to follow high-volatility names. [2]
The bigger market backdrop: near record highs, light volume, and the “Santa Claus rally” window
Rigetti isn’t trading in a vacuum. Friday’s broader tape was a classic post-holiday session: indexes barely moved, volumes were light, and markets stayed close to all-time highs. Reuters reported the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq dipped only slightly, after a strong multi-day run, and emphasized the “Santa Claus rally” period that runs through the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the next. [3]
AP’s market wrap echoed the same vibe: tiny index moves on light participation, but with strong year-to-date gains still defining the 2025 narrative. [4]
Why this matters for RGTI: in markets like this, high-beta story stocks can trade less on fundamentals and more on positioning, social momentum, and theme rotation.
Why Rigetti stock dropped Friday after popping earlier: sentiment, rotation, and thin liquidity
One plausible explanation for Friday’s pullback is simply that RGTI has been behaving like a retail-sensitive momentum vehicle inside a broader “quantum computing stocks” wave.
Benzinga described Rigetti’s move as a reversal after an earlier-week surge, driven by retail momentum and sector-wide optimism, with institutional desks thinning out into year-end. The piece also tied recent strength to social/media attention around Rigetti’s 2026 roadmap and spillover enthusiasm from peers like IonQ and D-Wave. [5]
That interpretation fits a wider 2025 market trend Reuters highlighted this week: retail participation has grown meaningfully, and thematic pockets can move sharply when liquidity is thin—especially in “future tech” narratives. [6]
Forbes also framed a recent Rigetti jump as potentially speculative, pointing to a broader quantum-sector rally rather than a single company-specific catalyst. [7]
The practical takeaway: RGTI can move fast even when there’s no new press release, because flows and narrative can become the catalyst.
The fundamental storyline bulls are paying for: Rigetti’s quantum roadmap and commercial traction
If you strip away the trading noise, Rigetti’s long-term bull case is still basically this:
- Deliver bigger, more reliable superconducting quantum systems (qubit count + fidelity improvements)
- Convert that capability into revenue via cloud access, on-prem systems, government programs, and partnerships
Rigetti’s most recent quarterly update (Q3 2025) laid out both the progress and the gap between aspiration and current scale:
- Revenue:$1.9 million (Q3 2025) [8]
- Operating loss:$20.5 million (Q3 2025) [9]
- GAAP net loss:$201.0 million, versus non-GAAP net loss $10.7 million (a reminder that accounting marks—like warrant/earn-out revaluations—can dominate GAAP results for companies like this) [10]
- Liquidity: cash, cash equivalents, and investments of $558.9 million as of Sept. 30, 2025; and roughly $600 million as of Nov. 6, 2025 after warrant exercises generated $46.5 million in proceeds [11]
And on the technology roadmap (the part that tends to fuel “quantum hype cycles”):
- Management said it remained on track to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system with an anticipated 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by end of 2025 [12]
- The company expects a 150+ qubit system by end of 2026 (anticipated 99.7% median two-qubit gate fidelity) and a 1,000+ qubit system by end of 2027 (anticipated 99.8%) [13]
That’s the core bet: the roadmap lands, fidelity improves, and quantum systems become more commercially useful.
The near-term “real revenue” signals: on-prem orders and government-linked projects
Two items from Rigetti’s update are particularly relevant for investors trying to separate “science project” from “business motion”:
1) On-prem purchase orders (~$5.7M):
Rigetti said it secured ~$5.7 million in purchase orders for two 9-qubit Novera systems, with expected delivery in the first half of 2026. [14]
2) AFRL contract (~$5.8M over three years):
Rigetti described a three-year, $5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) (in collaboration with QphoX) aimed at advancing superconducting quantum networking, including microwave-to-optical signal conversion challenges that matter for scaling quantum systems. [15]
These are not yet the kind of revenue numbers that justify huge valuations on their own—but they are concrete, date-stamped indicators of demand and institutional engagement.
DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative: a real-world checkpoint, with real-world consequences
Government programs can be both a tailwind and a risk factor for Rigetti: tailwind because they fund development; risk because selection and timing can change fast.
Rigetti said DARPA announced initial selections for Stage B of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) on Nov. 6, 2025, and that Rigetti was not initially selected, though management said dialogue was ongoing and expressed optimism about joining later. [16]
DARPA’s own QBI page describes Stage B selections and the initiative’s aim: to rigorously validate whether any approach can reach utility-scale operation by 2033. [17]
For investors, this matters because QBI is a credibility filter: participation (or lack of it) can influence sentiment, future funding narratives, and partnership discussions—even if it doesn’t immediately change revenue.
Partnerships that could shape the 2026 narrative: Quanta and NVIDIA
Rigetti also has two headline partnerships that keep showing up in professional research notes and retail chatter:
Quanta Computer collaboration (strategic + capital)
Rigetti announced a strategic collaboration with Quanta Computer in which both sides committed to investing more than $100 million each over five years, and Quanta would invest $35 million and purchase shares (subject to regulatory clearance). [18]
This is important because quantum hardware is not just “genius physics”—it’s manufacturing, packaging, supply chain, and systems engineering. A partner like Quanta signals seriousness about industrialization (even if execution is still the hard part).
NVIDIA NVQLink support (hybrid quantum-classical computing)
Rigetti also announced support for NVIDIA NVQLink, NVIDIA’s open platform aimed at integrating AI supercomputing with quantum systems. The press release included a quote from Tim Costa (NVIDIA’s GM for Quantum) describing NVQLink as enabling low-latency, high-throughput connectivity between CPUs, GPUs, and QPUs to accelerate hybrid application development. [19]
For RGTI stock, this matters because “hybrid” is one of the most credible near-term commercialization paths: quantum alone may not be broadly useful soon, but quantum + classical workflows might carve out earlier niches.
RGTI stock forecasts: analyst targets are bullish on paper, but all over the map
Here’s where things get spicy—in the way only early-stage tech can be.
- MarketWatch’s analyst aggregation showed an average target price ~ $39.78 with 10 ratings (at the time of that snapshot). [20]
- MarketBeat’s compilation put the average target at $31.22 with a “Moderate Buy” consensus, while noting recent targets ranged from the mid-$30s into the $50 area depending on firm and timing. [21]
- Barron’s reported that B. Riley’s Craig Ellis downgraded Rigetti from Buy to Neutral while raising the price target (a very “I like the story, hate the timing” kind of Wall Street move), citing concerns including reliance on government funding and wanting more clarity on progress and partnerships. [22]
Why the wide spread? Because analysts are effectively modeling a probability distribution over:
- whether the roadmap milestones land,
- whether customers pay meaningful dollars for it, and
- whether the company can do it without constant dilution or credibility hits.
Targets in quantum are less like “12-month precision instruments” and more like narrative markers: they tell you what assumptions are embedded in the bull case.
The bear case you’ll see in 2026 debates: commercialization timing and valuation gravity
Skeptical takes haven’t gone extinct—thankfully.
A recent Motley Fool column argued Rigetti stock could plunge in 2026, reflecting concerns common to the sector: high expectations, limited current revenue, and the risk that the market reprices “quantum someday” stories if milestones slip or risk appetite fades. [23]
Investopedia earlier highlighted how Rigetti’s reported results can be shaped by accounting effects (like non-cash fair value changes) and pointed to periods where revenue trends and margin mix mattered, including lower-margin contract work. [24]
Even many bulls agree on the uncomfortable truth: quantum commercialization is not a straight line—it’s a staircase, and some steps are missing.
Positioning and volatility: short interest and “high-beta” behavior can amplify moves
RGTI trades like a high-volatility name, and positioning can matter as much as fundamentals in the short run.
Finviz data showed short interest around 41.25 million shares, with short float about 12.76% (as of the cited settlement date). [25]
High short interest does not automatically mean a short squeeze is coming—but it does mean:
- there’s a meaningful cohort betting against the stock, and
- sharp upside moves can force covering, which can exaggerate rallies (and reversals).
Is the stock market closed right now? Yes—here’s what to know before the next session
Because it’s early Saturday in New York, the Nasdaq is closed. The next regular session is Monday.
Key trading-hours facts (helpful for planning orders)
Nasdaq’s standard hours are 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, Monday through Friday, with extended-hours sessions available depending on broker access. [26]
Upcoming market holiday to keep on your radar
The NYSE calendar lists New Year’s Day (Thursday, January 1, 2026) as a market holiday. [27]
That matters because the final days of December often have thin liquidity, and the first sessions of January can bring rebalancing flows.
What investors should watch before Monday’s open (practical, not hype)
- Pre-market sentiment (4:00–9:30 a.m. ET): Quantum stocks can gap on low volume—check whether the whole group (not just RGTI) is moving. [28]
- Any weekend filings or press: For story stocks, a single PR can reset the narrative.
- Macro tone and risk appetite: Reuters noted the market is still inside the “Santa Claus rally” window and emphasized that light-volume conditions can exaggerate moves. [29]
- Analyst note flow: MarketBeat cited a cluster of target changes and initiations in November/December; fresh notes can move these names quickly when liquidity is thin. [30]
- Milestone credibility: Track the roadmap language carefully—Rigetti has laid out specific qubit/fidelity targets and timeframes. Any “on track” vs. “timing update” nuance matters. [31]
- Risk management mechanics: With volatile stocks, spreads can widen. Many investors prefer limit orders (not market orders) during fast opens—especially after headline-driven weeks.
Bottom line: RGTI is a roadmap-driven stock in a narrative-driven sector
Rigetti is ending 2025 in a market environment that’s oddly perfect for quantum volatility: indexes near highs, year-end liquidity thin, retail influence elevated, and “next-era tech” themes rotating in and out. [32]
Fundamentally, Rigetti’s Q3 update showed:
- small revenue, meaningful operating losses, but also
- substantial liquidity,
- specific technology targets (100+ qubits by end of 2025; 150+ by end of 2026; 1,000+ by end of 2027), and
- commercial/strategic signals (on-prem orders, AFRL contract, Quanta collaboration, NVIDIA NVQLink participation). [33]
Analysts and commentators are split—some see upside embedded in the roadmap and partnerships, others see valuation and timeline risk as a setup for disappointment. [34]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. apnews.com, 5. www.benzinga.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.forbes.com, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.globenewswire.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.globenewswire.com, 12. www.globenewswire.com, 13. www.globenewswire.com, 14. www.globenewswire.com, 15. www.globenewswire.com, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.darpa.mil, 18. www.globenewswire.com, 19. www.globenewswire.com, 20. www.marketwatch.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.fool.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. finviz.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. www.nyse.com, 28. listingcenter.nasdaq.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.globenewswire.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.globenewswire.com, 34. www.barrons.com
