NEW YORK — As of 5:18 a.m. ET on Saturday, December 27, 2025, U.S. stock exchanges are closed for the weekend. That timing matters for investors watching Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (NYSE Arca: CEF), because the trust’s units won’t trade again until the next regular session—while precious-metals headlines (and futures markets) can keep moving.
On Friday’s thin, post-holiday tape, CEF finished at $48.97 and—crucially for closed-end fund investors—ended the day at an estimated discount to net asset value (NAV) of about -3.84% based on Sprott’s published NAV per unit of $50.93. [1]
That discount is the “extra variable” many investors underestimate. When you buy a bullion fund that’s structured as a closed-end trust, you’re not just buying gold and silver exposure—you’re also buying the market’s mood about that exposure.
And right now, the mood around precious metals is loud.
What moved CEF last session: record metals prices, steady equities, and rate-cut expectations
Gold and silver are not politely knocking on the door—they’re kicking it in.
- Gold hit fresh all-time highs on Friday amid safe-haven demand and shifting expectations for U.S. rate cuts. [2]
- Silver surged to a new record high—Reuters reported spot silver at $78.53/oz at one point Friday, a stunning move that also pulled other precious metals higher. [3]
Meanwhile, the broader U.S. market wasn’t in panic mode. Reuters described U.S. indexes as closing near record peaks in a muted post-Christmas session, with investors still eyeing the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window into year-end and early January. [4]
This combination—equities steady near highs while gold and silver rip—is one reason CEF has landed on more weekend watchlists. It’s not just a “fear trade” anymore; it’s increasingly treated as a portfolio allocation trade.
CEF, in plain English: what you’re actually buying
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF) is a closed-end trust designed to hold physical, fully allocated gold and silver bullion—not mining stocks, not futures strategies, not leveraged derivatives. [5]
Sprott’s own disclosures emphasize the trust’s focus on holding physical bullion (rather than speculating on short-term price changes). [6]
What the trust holds right now
As of Sprott’s latest update (data updated Friday, December 26, 2025, 6:00 p.m. EST), the trust reported approximately:
- 1,235,974 ounces of gold
- 51,767,761 ounces of silver
- Total NAV around $9.72 billion [7]
Those numbers matter because they help investors sanity-check whether CEF’s trading price is behaving like a bullion vehicle—or like a sentiment vehicle.
“Stock” vs. “trust”: why the structure changes the playbook
CEF trades on an exchange like a stock, but it behaves like a hybrid of:
- Physical bullion exposure, and
- Closed-end fund mechanics (premium/discount dynamics)
Sprott itself defines the premium/discount simply: it’s the percentage difference between the trust’s market close and the reported NAV—positive if above NAV, negative if below. [8]
That’s why, even if gold and silver move exactly as you expect, your CEF return can diverge if the discount widens—or juice higher if the discount narrows.
The weekend issue: bullion can move while CEF can’t
Because it’s Saturday, CEF won’t print new trades until the next U.S. session. But metals pricing can continue to evolve via futures markets and global headlines.
That creates a familiar Monday setup for precious-metals funds: gap risk. If gold and silver extend Friday’s move, CEF could open higher. If there’s a reversal (profit-taking after record highs is a very real personality trait of silver), CEF can open lower—without giving you any intraday chances to adjust over the weekend.
Why gold and silver are surging: the drivers investors keep hearing (and a few they miss)
In Reuters’ market wrap, several drivers were front and center:
- Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026
- Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tension
- A weaker dollar enhancing metals’ appeal [9]
Reuters also cited Soojin Kim, commodities analyst at MUFG, noting the rally could continue, supported by major banks forecasting further gains into 2026, along with strong physical demand and persistent uncertainty. [10]
Silver has its own extra fuel: it’s not just a monetary metal; it’s an industrial input. In a Reuters poll earlier this year, analysts flagged structural supply deficits and demand tied to sectors like solar, EVs, and data centers—dynamics that can make silver a “higher beta” expression of a broader metals bull market. [11]
Forecasts and price targets: what major banks and strategists are projecting for 2026
Precious-metals forecasting is a contact sport. Still, investors tend to anchor around a few headline calls—especially when the market is already in a momentum phase.
Here are the notable ones circulating into year-end, with sources:
Bullish and base-case calls
- Goldman Sachs: Reuters reported Goldman sees gold rising to $4,900/oz by December 2026 in its base case, citing strong central-bank demand and expected Fed rate cuts as cyclical support. [12]
- Deutsche Bank: Reuters reported Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 forecast average to $4,450/oz, with a $3,950–$4,950 range, and kept a 2027 forecast of $5,150—while also flagging risks like less Fed easing or slower reserve-manager buying. [13]
- Morgan Stanley: Reuters reported Morgan Stanley saw potential for gold to reach $4,500/oz by mid-2026, pointing to ETF and central-bank demand—while warning about downside volatility risks. [14]
“Consensus-ish” survey view
- Reuters poll (October): Median forecasts from analysts and traders pointed to gold averaging $4,275/oz in 2026, while silver was seen averaging $50/oz in 2026. The same poll included commentary from market participants emphasizing central-bank buying and investment flows. [15]
The sober counterpoint
Even in a ripping bull market, not everyone buys the “straight line up” story:
- Capital Economics: Reuters reported Capital Economics lowered its forecast to $3,500/oz by end-2026, arguing the scale of the rally had become harder to justify. [16]
For CEF holders, these forecasts matter less as “targets” and more as narrative gravity: forecasts influence flows, and flows influence whether closed-end discounts stay wide, narrow, or flip.
Central banks: the quiet buyer that doesn’t care about your RSI
One of the most persistent pillars under gold has been central-bank demand—not a day-trader impulse, but a strategic reserve-management choice.
The World Gold Council’s 2025 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey reported that central banks accumulated over 1,000 tonnes in each of the last three years, and that 95% of survey respondents expected global central-bank gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months. [17]
That kind of buyer is the opposite of “hot money.” It can also help explain why gold has remained resilient even when speculative positioning gets frothy.
CEF-specific mechanics investors should understand before the next session
1) The discount/premium can matter as much as the metals move
Sprott’s data shows CEF at a discount based on Friday’s figures. [18]
Third-party fund dashboards can show different NAV timing depending on update frequency—CEF Connect itself warns that its data can differ from sponsor data due to update schedules. [19]
Practical takeaway: if you’re trading CEF tactically, check the sponsor’s published NAV and timestamp, not just a brokerage quote.
2) Redemption is real—but it’s not for small tickets
CEF unitholders have the right to redeem for physical metals monthly, but the prospectus sets a minimum redemption amount of 100,000 units (and redemption value is based on NAV on the last day of the month the NYSE Arca is open). [20]
So yes, this is “physically backed” in a way that’s more than marketing—but it’s structurally aimed at larger holders, not casual redemptions.
3) Distributions are not the point here
CEF is not designed to be a yield product. The trust has stated it does not anticipate making regular cash distributions. [21]
If you’re looking for income, this isn’t that instrument. If you’re looking for exposure to gold + silver bullion, it’s much closer.
4) U.S. tax treatment: PFIC rules are the hidden homework assignment
Sprott’s own U.S. tax guide explains that the trusts have been treated as PFICs (Passive Foreign Investment Companies) since inception and are expected to continue to be PFICs. [22]
Key points from the guide:
- Investors may be eligible for long-term capital gains treatment if they make a QEF election (typically filed on IRS Form 8621) and meet holding requirements. [23]
- The trusts can be held in an IRA, according to the guide. [24]
- The trusts do not issue K‑1s. [25]
This is not a “don’t buy it” warning—more like a “know what you own” warning. PFIC handling is very investor-specific, so professionals get involved quickly here.
If the exchange is closed now: what to watch before Monday, December 29
Because it’s Saturday, any “next move” planning for CEF is mostly about preparing for how it might open on Monday.
Here’s the investor checklist that tends to matter most for CEF heading into the next session:
1) Where are gold and silver trading by Sunday night?
Metals momentum is strong, but silver’s volatility is legendary. Reuters’ record-high coverage underscored just how extreme recent moves have been. [26]
2) Is the market still pricing multiple Fed cuts in 2026?
Reuters noted traders were pricing at least two cuts over 2026, and markets were also sensitive to signals around the next Fed chair nomination—an unusual political-macro catalyst that can ripple into the dollar and real yields. [27]
3) Is CEF’s discount widening or narrowing?
Friday’s Sprott-reported discount was notable. [28]
If the discount narrows, CEF can outperform spot metals; if it widens, it can lag—even if bullion rises.
4) Liquidity and spreads (especially after a big move)
Holiday weeks and year-end sessions can bring thinner liquidity. Reuters explicitly described Friday as muted post-holiday trading. [29]
That environment can exaggerate opening gaps and intraday spreads—important if you place market orders.
The bottom line for CEF investors
CEF is having a moment because the underlying story—gold and silver at record highs amid rate-cut expectations and global uncertainty—is dominating market attention. [30]
But CEF isn’t a pure “metal price = my return” instrument. It’s a closed-end trust with its own market physics: discount/premium dynamics, NAV timing, and structure-specific details like redemption minimums and PFIC tax considerations. [31]
Going into Monday’s open, the key question isn’t just “where are gold and silver headed?” It’s also: what price is the market willing to pay for bullion exposure through CEF—relative to NAV—after one of the most dramatic precious-metals surges in years? [32]
References
1. www.sprottusa.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.sprottusa.com, 6. www.cefconnect.com, 7. www.sprottusa.com, 8. www.sprottusa.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.gold.org, 18. www.sprottusa.com, 19. www.cefconnect.com, 20. sprott.com, 21. sprott.com, 22. sprott.com, 23. sprott.com, 24. sprott.com, 25. sprott.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.sprottusa.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.sprottusa.com, 32. www.sprottusa.com
