NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 9:54 a.m. ET — Market closed
Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) enters the final stretch of 2025 with shares holding near recent highs after a quiet, post-Christmas trading session on Friday and a weekend pause in U.S. equities. Amazon stock last closed at $232.52, up 0.06% on the day, and was marginally lower in late Friday extended trading, according to market data. [1]
With the Nasdaq and broader market now closed for the weekend, investors’ focus shifts to what could drive AMZN when trading resumes Monday: year-end positioning, interest-rate expectations (including upcoming Fed minutes), and fresh read-throughs on consumer demand and returns as post-holiday shopping shifts into “returns season.” [2]
Amazon stock price action: six straight gains, but thin holiday volume
Amazon shares have notched gains in six consecutive sessions based on the stock’s daily closes since mid-December, a run that has carried AMZN back toward the $232–$233 area. On Friday (Dec. 26), AMZN traded between $231.18 and $232.99 and finished at $232.52 on volume of about 15.4 million shares. After-hours trading showed AMZN near $232.45 around 7:59 p.m. ET. [3]
That price resilience matters because the market backdrop is shifting into a period where light liquidity can amplify moves—up or down—especially in mega-cap names that are widely held in index funds and institutional portfolios. Reuters noted that Friday’s post-holiday session featured few catalysts and light volume, with the major indexes ending only slightly lower. [4]
The market backdrop: “Santa Claus rally” watch and rate sensitivity
Amazon stock is often treated as both a consumer-discretionary bellwether and a long-duration growth name because of AWS and advertising—making it sensitive to the interest-rate narrative into year-end.
On Friday, Reuters reported that Wall Street ended the post-Christmas session nearly flat, and quoted Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, describing the tape as the market “catching our breath” after a strong multi-day run. Detrick also pointed to the ongoing “Santa Claus rally” window that can influence sentiment into early January. [5]
Looking ahead, Reuters’ “Week Ahead” coverage said investors are watching for Fed meeting minutes and potential year-end portfolio adjustments, both of which can add volatility when trading volumes are thin. In the same report, Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management, said momentum remains supportive for equities absent a major external shock. [6]
Meanwhile, Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, told Reuters that recent market moves suggest rotation toward areas with more moderate valuations, as some investors buy into the view that the economy is holding up. That “rotation” theme matters for Amazon because it can influence relative performance between mega-cap tech and other sectors. [7]
The consumer angle: post-holiday demand is shifting into returns season
For Amazon’s retail business, the calendar is changing fast—from peak holiday shipping into the post-holiday surge of returns and exchanges.
An Associated Press report published Saturday described early holiday trends that included strong overall spending, but also more value-seeking behavior and fewer returns early in the season. AP cited Adobe Analytics data showing returns fell 2.5% from Nov. 1 to Dec. 12 versus the prior year, while online sales rose 6% to $187.3 billion over that window. [8]
AP also quoted Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, who attributed lower early returns to more deliberate purchasing behavior. However, Adobe expects returns to jump after Christmas—AP reported Adobe’s forecast that returns between Dec. 26 and Dec. 31 could rise 25% to 35% versus the early-season period it tracked. [9]
For Amazon specifically, the company has an extended holiday return window: most items purchased from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, 2025 can be returned through Jan. 31, 2026, with some exceptions (including a shorter window for certain Apple-branded products). [10]
Why this matters for AMZN investors: strong post-holiday engagement can support unit volumes and Prime retention, but elevated returns can pressure margins through shipping, handling, and refurbishment costs. The market will be watching for signals—official or anecdotal—on whether returns are manageable and whether consumers keep spending into January.
AWS and AI remain the bigger valuation engine
While the retail narrative is seasonally important, many investors still view Amazon Web Services (AWS) as the key profit driver—particularly as enterprises weigh cloud spending and AI workloads.
A Zacks Equity Research commentary carried by Nasdaq this week highlighted Amazon’s position across e-commerce and cloud infrastructure, emphasizing AWS’ strategic role and the company’s investment in AI and automation. The same piece also pointed to regulatory and operational watch items that investors continue to track around Amazon’s scale. [11]
In practical market terms, any Monday-to-year-end moves in AMZN may be less about day-to-day retail headlines and more about how investors are repricing the “AI trade,” interest rates, and mega-cap exposure heading into 2026.
Analyst forecasts: Wall Street still skews bullish on AMZN
Even with AMZN hovering near $232, many sell-side targets remain well above current levels.
- MarketBeat lists a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating on Amazon, based on 61 analyst ratings, with an average 12-month price target of $295.50 (about 27% implied upside from $232.52). MarketBeat’s published range spans a high target of $360 and a low target of $218. [12]
- On fundamentals, the Zacks/Nasdaq commentary cited expectations for Amazon’s 2025 revenue growth (~11.9%) and earnings growth (~29.7%), with 2026 expected to show continued growth (revenue and earnings in the low double-digits/single digits, respectively, per the same analysis). [13]
- Yahoo Finance’s published analyst table (as indexed in its AMZN “Analysis” page) shows dozens of analysts contributing to forward estimates, underscoring how heavily “consensus” expectations shape market reactions around earnings and guidance. [14]
Investors should note that analyst targets can change quickly—especially near earnings, major regulatory developments, or shifts in rate expectations—so the direction of revisions often matters as much as the target level itself.
What investors should know before the next session
With U.S. markets closed Saturday and Sunday, here are the practical AMZN-specific items investors are likely to monitor before Monday’s open:
- Macro catalysts and Fed expectations: Reuters has flagged Fed minutes and year-end positioning as potential volatility drivers next week, especially in thin trading. Growth-oriented mega-caps like Amazon can be sensitive to rate repricing. [15]
- Holiday returns and consumer behavior: Post-holiday returns are expected to rise, and Amazon’s extended return window runs through Jan. 31, 2026 for most items. Watch for credible data points on returns, promotions, and January demand. [16]
- Key price levels from Friday’s tape: Near-term traders will be aware of Friday’s $231.18 low and $232.99 high as reference points, with after-hours trading near $232.45. [17]
- Year-end flow effects: Reuters noted there are three trading days left in 2025 after Friday’s close—an environment where rebalancing and tax-related trading can create outsized moves relative to the news flow. [18]
For now, Amazon stock goes into the weekend steady and liquid, but not immune to a year-end tape that Reuters described as prone to exaggeration when volumes are light. When trading returns Monday, the “story” for AMZN may hinge less on a single headline and more on whether the market’s year-end optimism—and the rotation/rate narrative—continues into the first days of 2026. [19]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. apnews.com, 9. apnews.com, 10. www.amazon.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. finance.yahoo.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. apnews.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com
