NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 10:06 a.m. ET — Market closed
Rocket Lab Corporation (NASDAQ: RKLB) heads into the weekend with investors debating whether Friday’s sharp drop was simply a year-end breather—or an early warning that a red-hot space-and-defense rally is cooling.
With U.S. equity markets closed Saturday, the next meaningful catalyst for RKLB price discovery will come when trading resumes Monday, Dec. 29, with the regular session opening at 9:30 a.m. ET. [1]
Where Rocket Lab stock left off
RKLB ended the last regular session (Friday, Dec. 26) at $70.65, down 8.46% on the day after opening around $76.68 and swinging between $76.99 (high) and $70.39 (low). Trading volume was about 23.16 million shares, underscoring how quickly sentiment can flip in high-beta “space infrastructure” names. [2]
MarketWatch’s last reported extended-hours update showed RKLB at $70.28 late Friday evening, reinforcing that the weekend begins with the stock sitting well off recent highs. [3]
Why RKLB fell on Friday
Friday’s decline came as the broader market was largely subdued in post-Christmas trading, while small caps underperformed—often a headwind for volatile growth stocks. Investors.com’s market coverage noted the Russell 2000 lagging, a backdrop that can magnify pullbacks in momentum names that ran hard into year-end. [4]
Sector-specific commentary also turned cautious. Benzinga framed Rocket Lab’s move as part of a broader “space stocks” pullback after a powerful rally. The outlet cited speculation around a potential SpaceX IPO in 2026 and a pro-space policy mix as drivers of the preceding surge—factors that can spark fast inflows, but also fast profit-taking. [5]
In other words: the Friday slide didn’t require fresh bad news to hit the tape. After a rapid repricing, gravity alone can do the job.
The core fundamental driver hasn’t changed: the $816M Space Development Agency award
The elephant in the room—and the reason many investors still see Rocket Lab as more than a “launch story”—is its accelerating role in U.S. national security space.
In an SEC filing, Rocket Lab disclosed that it entered into an agreement with the Space Development Agency (SDA) to design, manufacture, and provide operations and sustainment for 18 satellites, with a total contract value of $816 million (including a $806 million base and options totaling about $10 million). The filing also notes that work begins immediately and the final delivery for launch is expected in 2029. [6]
Rocket Lab’s own announcement adds key color: the satellites are intended to provide missile warning, tracking, and defense sensing, and the company highlighted additional subsystem opportunities that could bring its total “capture value” to approximately $1 billion. [7]
Reuters put Rocket Lab’s award in a wider Pentagon procurement context: SDA said it reached agreements with four suppliers to build 72 satellites worth about $3.5 billion collectively, with Rocket Lab among the firms signing fixed-price contracts for 18 satellites each. SDA Acting Director Gurpartap Sandhoo said the satellites are expected to enable “near-continuous global coverage” for missile warning and tracking. [8]
TechCrunch likewise emphasized that the SDA award is Rocket Lab’s largest to date and separate from an earlier SDA-related satellite award, illustrating how Rocket Lab’s space-systems business is becoming a pillar alongside launch. [9]
Why investors care: this is the type of contract that can materially change how the market values Rocket Lab—less as a cyclical launch provider and more as an integrated defense-space manufacturer with repeatable, multi-year production work.
Rocket Lab’s “execution narrative”: launches, cadence, and the Neutron ramp
Rocket Lab has also built a momentum story around operational execution. Investopedia highlighted the company’s record 21 Electron launches in 2025 and 100% success rate, a combination that can influence how investors price reliability and cadence in a market where mission assurance matters. [10]
A separate Space.com report underscored another near-term narrative catalyst: progress on Rocket Lab’s partially reusable Neutron rocket. Space.com reported that Rocket Lab completed final qualification testing for its “Hungry Hippo” fairing and described Neutron as expected to fly for the first time early next year. The article quoted Rocket Lab VP for Neutron Shaun D’Mello saying, “A rocket like Neutron has never been built before.” [11]
Meanwhile, a Nasdaq.com piece (by The Motley Fool) framed 2026 as pivotal, noting the company’s plan to expand beyond Electron with Neutron and describing Neutron’s timeline as pushed into the first quarter of next year. The article also referenced commentary attributed to Morgan Stanley and Stifel around the schedule shift. [12]
For RKLB investors, that sets up a two-track story:
- Near-term: execution on high-volume Electron launches and satellite manufacturing wins.
- Medium-term: whether Neutron development hits milestones without costly delays—because a new medium-lift vehicle changes total addressable market, but it also raises execution risk.
Forecasts and Wall Street targets: bullish long-term, noisy short-term
With Rocket Lab moving fast, the analyst picture is unusually dynamic—and sometimes inconsistent across data providers and publication dates.
- Investors.com reported that Needham lifted its Rocket Lab price target from $63 to $90, highlighting how quickly targets have moved as the defense narrative strengthens. [13]
- MarketWatch data showed an average target around $68.31 (based on 18 analysts, per its listing). [14]
- Barron’s noted that about 67% of analysts rate the stock a Buy and cited an average price target around $71, even after a major 2025 run-up. [15]
Newer “street-level” synthesis also reflects that tension. TipRanks contributor Nikolaos Sismanis described RKLB as a “high-growth bet” and cited a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with an average price forecast around $68.25 on that platform—suggesting some analysts see limited upside after the rally, even while remaining broadly positive on the business direction. [16]
What to take from all this: targets are clustering in a wide band because Rocket Lab is transitioning between business phases. In that kind of story stock, target prices tend to chase the narrative—up quickly on contract wins, then lag when volatility hits and analysts wait to see execution.
Technical picture: oversold signals vs. trend support
After Friday’s drop, short-term technical signals looked softer.
Investing.com’s technical dashboard (timestamped early Dec. 27 GMT) listed RSI(14) around 41, with multiple oscillators in “sell” or “oversold” territory, while longer moving averages still leaned more constructive—its 50-day and 200-day averages were below the last close, while very short-term averages sat above it. [17]
This kind of setup often aligns with a market that’s trying to decide whether the move was:
- a routine pullback to “reset” momentum, or
- the start of a larger unwind.
Investors.com also pointed to Rocket Lab flashing a “rare bullish signal” earlier in the rally (after clearing a technical buy point), while noting the stock’s sharp Friday drop—another reminder that RKLB is currently trading like a momentum name, even as the fundamental story matures. [18]
What investors should watch before Monday’s next session
Because markets are closed today, the most useful weekend preparation is less about predicting Monday’s first print and more about knowing what can move RKLB quickly once liquidity returns.
1) Watch for follow-through on defense-space headlines
The SDA contract is real and disclosed in filings, but defense programs often bring schedule, margin, and “option exercise” questions. Investors may look for any new detail around production cadence, sensor payload delivery, and how Rocket Lab will balance satellite work with launch operations. [19]
2) Expect holiday-week liquidity effects
Year-end trading can amplify intraday swings—especially in high-beta stocks that have already posted massive gains. Friday’s wide range (roughly $70 to $77) and heavy volume show how quickly that can play out. [20]
3) Know the calendar around the New Year holiday
Markets are approaching the last trading days of 2025. NYSE’s calendar highlights holiday adjustments (including the recent Christmas-period early close and holiday closures). [21]
Investopedia’s trading schedule reminder is also straightforward: stock and bond markets are closed on Jan. 1, 2026, and bond trading ends early on Dec. 31. [22]
That matters because thin sessions can exaggerate volatility, particularly for stocks with active retail participation and rapid narrative shifts.
4) Keep an eye on the next earnings date
For investors looking beyond day-to-day swings, the next major “fundamentals checkpoint” is earnings. Zacks listed Rocket Lab’s next expected earnings release on Feb. 26, 2026. [23]
Bottom line for RKLB stock this weekend
Rocket Lab stock is entering the weekend in a classic high-momentum setup: a powerful uptrend fueled by a landmark national security satellite win, followed by a sharp pullback as the broader space sector cooled and markets drifted in holiday trading. [24]
For Monday’s session, the key question isn’t whether Rocket Lab “still has a story”—it clearly does. The real question is whether buyers treat the pullback as a reset within a longer uptrend, or whether price action shifts toward a more prolonged consolidation as Wall Street digests valuation, waits for additional contract detail, and watches execution milestones for Neutron and the SDA program. [25]
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.investors.com, 5. www.benzinga.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.rocketlabusa.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. techcrunch.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. www.space.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. www.investors.com, 14. www.marketwatch.com, 15. www.barrons.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investors.com, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.nyse.com, 22. www.investopedia.com, 23. www.zacks.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.space.com
