NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 10:07 a.m. ET — Market closed.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) enters the weekend with investors debating a familiar question for high-volatility “frontier tech” names: does a major engineering milestone translate into a smoother path to revenue—or simply reset the clock for the next wave of execution risk?
Heading into Monday’s reopening of U.S. markets, ASTS is coming off another sharp move lower in a session where the broader tape was comparatively calm. In a light-volume, post-Christmas environment, major indexes ended Friday nearly unchanged, with strategists framing the day as a pause after a strong run. Reuters But ASTS didn’t trade like a market taking a breath: the stock finished the most recent session at $71.95, down roughly 7.8%. 1
Where ASTS stock stands as the market heads into the weekend
With U.S. equities closed Saturday, the latest widely quoted print for ASTS reflects Friday’s action, when shares ended at $71.95. MarketBeat MarketBeat characterized the move as a 7.8% decline on heavy volume (about 19.3 million shares) compared with typical trading activity—an important data point because it suggests the pullback wasn’t just “holiday noise.” 1
By contrast, broad-market proxies were muted: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ (QQQ) both finished essentially flat, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) was modestly lower—consistent with the “thin, post-holiday” tone described by Reuters. 2
The catalyst still in focus: BlueBird 6 reaches orbit
The stock’s volatility is anchored to a headline investors have been anticipating for months: the successful orbital launch of AST’s BlueBird 6 satellite—the first of its next-generation spacecraft designed to support direct-to-smartphone connectivity.
In its launch announcement, AST SpaceMobile said BlueBird 6 lifted off December 23 from India’s Satish Dhawan Space Centre and called the satellite the largest commercial communications array ever deployed in low Earth orbit, spanning nearly 2,400 square feet and designed for high-speed 4G and 5G broadband “directly to standard, unmodified smartphones.” Business Wire The company also said the satellite is intended to enable peak data rates up to 120 Mbps. 3
AST founder, chairman, and CEO Abel Avellan described the moment as a turning point, calling BlueBird 6 “a breakthrough moment” and saying it “marks the transition to scaled deployment.” 3
Independent space-focused coverage has echoed the “record-size” framing. Space.com reported BlueBird 6’s communications array at roughly 2,400 square feet and noted the satellite was deployed about 15.5 minutes after liftoff into low Earth orbit. 4
Just as crucial for stockholders: AST used the launch announcement to reiterate an aggressive ramp plan—stating it is on track to launch 45–60 satellites by the end of 2026, with launches planned every one or two months on average. 3
Why the stock can fall after “good news”
The tension in ASTS right now is that the market is rapidly shifting from headline-driven excitement (“it launched”) to execution-driven scrutiny (“now prove it works reliably, at scale, and economically”).
That pattern tends to be most pronounced in:
- high-beta, story-led equities, and
- thin-liquidity periods, like the post-holiday week Reuters described as a low-catalyst session where investors were “catching our breath.” 2
In other words: a successful launch can reduce one category of risk (getting the satellite to orbit), while immediately amplifying others (deployment, testing, network integration, regulatory milestones, manufacturing cadence, and capital needs). That shift in what the market is pricing can create the “sell-the-news” feel investors saw in ASTS this week.
The last 24–48 hours: key headlines shaping the narrative
Here are the most relevant, widely circulated developments from roughly the past one to two days, and why they matter for ASTS investors:
1) Market backdrop: thin post-holiday trading with a “Santa Claus rally” lens
Reuters reported that Wall Street finished Friday’s session nearly unchanged, snapping a short winning streak but still logging weekly gains. Strategists emphasized seasonality (“Santa Claus rally”) and reminded investors that volatility remains part of the price of long-run returns. Reuters
Why it matters for ASTS: story stocks often exaggerate moves when liquidity is thin—up or down.
2) Stock-specific: ASTS down ~7.8% on heavy volume
MarketBeat flagged ASTS’s sharp decline and elevated volume versus average, underscoring that traders were actively repositioning after the launch-driven surge and subsequent reversal. MarketBeat
Why it matters: heavy volume on a down day can be interpreted as either (a) distribution/profit-taking, or (b) a reset as new buyers step in—context over the next few sessions matters.
3) Consumer-facing coverage keeps the “Starlink rival” framing in circulation
Gizmodo’s Dec. 26 write-up leaned into the competitive storyline (AST vs. Starlink) and reiterated the size and ambition of the next-generation BlueBird satellites. Gizmodo
Why it matters: this kind of coverage can amplify retail attention and options activity—both of which can increase short-term price swings.
4) Continued post-launch framing: launch de-risks tech, but execution remains
Trefis characterized BlueBird 6 as a validation milestone that could “de-risk” AST’s path toward meaningful-capacity direct-to-smartphone broadband—while implicitly pointing investors toward the next phase (proving the economics and scaling reliably). 5
Forecasts and analyst outlook: a wide target range reflects high uncertainty
On Wall Street, ASTS remains a stock with dispersed expectations—a polite way of saying analysts disagree on what the business will look like once commercial service begins.
Consensus snapshot (last ~3 months of analyst updates, per TipRanks):
- Average price target:$72.39
- Range:$43 (low) to $95 (high)
- Consensus rating:Moderate Buy (mix of Buy/Hold/Sell ratings) 6
With ASTS last trading around $71.95, that TipRanks average target is essentially flat (roughly +0.6%). TipRanks The implication: after the stock’s 2025 run and launch-driven volatility, many analysts appear to be waiting for clearer evidence from the next execution phase.
Named analyst actions and targets highlighted by TipRanks include:
- Mike Crawford (B. Riley Securities): Buy; price target raised to $95 (reiterated) 6
- Gregory Pendy (Clear Street): Buy; price target raised to $87 (reiterated) 6
- Bryan Kraft (Deutsche Bank): Buy; price target raised to $81 (reiterated) 6
- Mathieu Robilliard (Barclays): Sell; $60 price target (downgraded) 6
- Chris Schoell (UBS): Hold; $43 price target (reiterated) 6
The takeaway for investors: the Street isn’t uniformly “bearish” or “bullish”—it’s split, which is typical when a company is transitioning from R&D-heavy development into the earliest stages of operational scaling.
What investors should know before the next session
Because the market is closed today, the next real catalyst for price discovery will be Monday’s premarket and opening auction, especially if any weekend headlines hit the tape.
1) Know the clock: when trading resumes
Nasdaq outlines extended-hours windows as:
- Pre-market:4:00 a.m.–9:30 a.m. ET
- After-hours:4:00 p.m.–8:00 p.m. ET 7
The next regular-session open is Monday, Dec. 29, absent a market holiday. Nasdaq’s published holiday calendar shows the most recent closure was Christmas Day (Dec. 25), and the next major closure ahead is New Year’s Day (Jan. 1, 2026). 8
2) The next “make-or-break” milestones are operational, not promotional
After a successful launch, investors typically focus on tangible proof points that are harder to spin:
- Deployment performance (did the array fully deploy as planned?)
- In-orbit test data (link quality, throughput, latency, reliability)
- Partner integration updates with mobile network operators
- Manufacturing cadence (can AST sustain the promised launch rhythm into 2026?) 3
This is where volatility can persist: any delay or hiccup can move the stock sharply, but credible progress updates can also reignite momentum quickly.
3) Capital and dilution remain part of the story
Scaling a satellite constellation is capital intensive. AST has an at-the-market (ATM) offering program in place—disclosed in an October 2025 Form 8-K—authorizing sales of up to $800 million in Class A common stock over time through multiple sales agents. 9
Investors often watch for signals that a company may use strength (or volatility spikes) to raise cash—an overhang that can pressure shares in the short run even when long-term fundamentals improve.
4) Expect continued volatility into year-end
Even outside AST-specific catalysts, the end-of-year market structure matters. Reuters highlighted that only a handful of sessions remain in 2025 and emphasized that volatility is normal—even during broadly strong years. 2
For ASTS specifically, that means:
- sharper reactions to headlines,
- larger swings on lower liquidity, and
- potential gap risk at the open.
Bottom line for AST SpaceMobile stock heading into Monday
AST SpaceMobile has delivered a headline that long-term investors wanted—BlueBird 6 is in orbit, and management is framing it as the start of a scaled deployment phase targeting 45–60 satellites by the end of 2026. 3
But the stock action into the weekend is a reminder that markets don’t pay for milestones twice: after the initial excitement, ASTS is now trading on what comes next—deployment success, real-world performance, and credible progress toward commercial service.
For Monday, investors should watch premarket positioning, any weekend updates, and whether the stock stabilizes after Friday’s heavy-volume drop—against a broader market backdrop that is still thin and seasonal, but near record levels. 2
