NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 2:06 p.m. ET — Market Closed (Weekend)
Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) heads into the final trading days of 2025 on a volatile note after a sharp pullback in Friday’s post‑Christmas session. Shares ended Dec. 26 at $22.38, down $2.13 (‑8.69%), after trading as low as $22.33 and as high as $24.37. In after-hours trading, RGTI was last quoted around $22.46 (+0.36%) late Friday evening. [1]
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, investors now have a full news cycle to digest a wave of fresh commentary published over the past 24–48 hours—from “big money” ownership spotlights to sharply different 2026 forecasts—before the next regular session begins Monday morning.
What happened Friday: a fast reversal in thin, year-end trading
Friday’s drop stood out not only for its size, but for how quickly sentiment turned after earlier-week momentum in high‑beta “pure-play” quantum names.
Benzinga described the move as a Friday afternoon reversal following a surge earlier in the week, attributing the volatility to a mix of retail-driven momentum, sector-wide optimism, and thinner institutional participation during the holiday period. [2]
MarketBeat’s recap similarly emphasized that RGTI fell about 8.7% on Friday, with roughly 28.05 million shares traded—well below the stock’s reported average session volume—underscoring how liquidity conditions can amplify swings in speculative growth names near year-end. [3]
The last 24–48 hours of RGTI news and analysis: mixed signals into 2026
While there were no major company press releases on Friday itself, the past two days produced a concentrated burst of RGTI-focused market coverage. The themes are consistent: extreme volatility, high expectations for the technology roadmap, and debate about valuation versus fundamentals.
1) “Big money” ownership spotlight (Dec. 26)
One of the most widely syndicated pieces over the last 48 hours highlighted increased interest from large asset managers and hedge funds in 2025. A Nasdaq.com article (sourced to The Motley Fool) pointed to holdings disclosed in SEC filings, citing firms including Vanguard and BlackRock, and noting additional activity from hedge funds such as Millennium Management, Citadel Advisors, and Schonfeld Strategic Advisors. [4]
Investor takeaway: institutional ownership can support liquidity and visibility—but it doesn’t necessarily reduce drawdowns in a stock that trades heavily on sentiment.
2) Competing 2026 calls: “plunge” versus “comeback” (Dec. 25–27)
A bearish forecast published late Dec. 25 (also carried by Nasdaq.com) argued that Rigetti’s fundamentals remain too small relative to its valuation, citing $5.2 million of revenue across the first three quarters of 2025, a GAAP net loss of $198 million for that period, and a still‑meaningful cash runway (around $600 million as of early November). [5]
On the other side of the spectrum, another Motley Fool commentary published Dec. 27 suggested a rebound case in 2026 could depend heavily on overall risk appetite and Rigetti’s ability to land major quantum computing contracts rather than on momentum alone. [6]
Investor takeaway: near-term narratives are diverging, but both bullish and bearish cases keep circling back to the same catalyst—whether revenue traction and contract wins catch up to the stock’s “future tech” valuation.
3) “Risk-reward” comparison piece highlights Rigetti milestones (Dec. 26)
A Dec. 26 Motley Fool analysis recapped notable technical and commercial milestones—while arguing other quantum stocks may offer a better risk‑reward profile right now. The piece highlighted:
- Rigetti’s reported hardware milestones (including multi‑chip progress and fidelity gains),
- A roadmap aiming for a 150+ qubit system around end‑2026 and a 1,000+ qubit system around end‑2027,
- And commercial traction such as two Novera system orders totaling ~$5.7 million (delivery expected in the first half of 2026) and a $5.8 million Air Force Research Laboratory contract. [7]
Investor takeaway: the roadmap and technical progress are central to the bull case, but the market is still demanding clearer proof that progress converts into repeatable revenue.
4) Fresh weekend “ticker data” and insider-trading commentary (Dec. 27)
A Quiver Quantitative “PriceTracker” note posted Saturday said RGTI fell 6% this week (per its dataset) and flagged that insiders had 21 open-market trades in the last six months, all sales and no purchases, according to its summary of filings. [8]
Investor takeaway: insider selling doesn’t automatically signal trouble (executives sell for many reasons), but in sentiment-driven names it can influence short-term narratives—especially heading into the next open.
Analyst targets and Wall Street posture: “outperform” optimism, but not a unanimous view
Even after the recent pullback, Rigetti remains one of the most actively debated pure-plays in public quantum computing. The analyst picture is mixed—and that matters because changing coverage has been a key driver of the entire quantum cohort in 2025.
Wedbush initiated coverage of Rigetti and peer quantum names with “outperform” ratings and a $35 price target for RGTI, with analysts describing quantum computing as “transformational” and forecasting that by the end of the decade, quantum companies could represent a larger share of compute spend (from a small base today). [9]
Meanwhile, MarketBeat’s roundup of recent analyst actions lists a consensus target around $31.22 and notes multiple firms with targets spanning the mid‑$30s to higher levels, underscoring that even the “bull case” community does not speak with one voice. [10]
For a more valuation-focused caution, Reuters previously quoted Benchmark Equity Research analyst David Williams, who called quantum valuation “more of an art than science,” even while maintaining a constructive stance on the stock. Reuters also cited B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis, who moved to Neutral at one point due to “premium valuation” concerns and potential U.S. government funding headwinds, illustrating how quickly rating logic can swing as prices move. [11]
Fundamentals check: cash runway versus small revenue base
Rigetti’s investment debate remains straightforward on paper and complicated in practice:
- The company has highlighted a strong liquidity position and limited debt, which bulls view as critical for funding a long R&D runway. [12]
- But revenues remain small and inconsistent, with government timing playing an outsized role.
On Rigetti’s Q3 2025 earnings call, CFO Jeff Bertelsen said third-quarter revenue was $1.9 million (down from $2.4 million a year earlier), and attributed the year-over-year impact partly to the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative and pending reauthorization. He also noted gross margin variability by contract mix and described operating expense levels and the company’s cash position, including an estimated ~$600 million in cash, equivalents and investments as of Nov. 6, 2025. [13]
That mix—long runway, early revenues—is precisely why RGTI can trade like a “long-duration option” on quantum commercialization: it can rally hard on technical milestones and strategic partnerships, then sell off sharply when markets rotate away from speculative growth.
A near-term catalyst investors may be overlooking: the Quanta agreement deadline
One timely detail stands out as the calendar flips to year-end.
In a Feb. 27, 2025 Form 8‑K describing Rigetti’s collaboration agreement with Quanta Computer Inc., the company disclosed a provision allowing either party to terminate the collaboration if no statement of work has been entered into by Dec. 31, 2025, or if the related securities purchase agreement is terminated due to failure to obtain required BIS clearance by that same date. [14]
Why it matters now: Dec. 31 is only days away, and any update (or lack of update) could influence sentiment—particularly for investors who view Quanta as a strategic validation partner. The same filing also described the associated private placement framework, including Quanta’s planned purchase of shares (subject to conditions) and other governance arrangements. [15]
What investors should know before the next session
With markets closed today, here are the main items likely to shape how RGTI trades when liquidity returns on Monday:
- Watch for year-end disclosures tied to the Quanta collaboration
- Any update on a statement of work or BIS clearance could move the stock simply because it reduces uncertainty around one of Rigetti’s most closely watched partnerships. [16]
- Monitor quantum peer moves and sector sentiment
- Rigetti often trades in sympathy with other pure-play quantum names when “risk-on/risk-off” flows dominate. Reuters has described the broader group as a high-volatility cohort that investors struggle to value conventionally. [17]
- Keep an eye on the short-interest backdrop
- MarketBeat data shows short interest around 41.25 million shares, roughly 12.5% of float as of mid‑December—high enough to amplify volatility in either direction if sentiment shifts. [18]
- Know the next earnings window (likely early March, but not always “confirmed”)
- Several market calendars currently point to early March 2026 for the next report (often listed around March 4–5, 2026), though some platforms label it as estimated rather than confirmed. [19]
- Technical context from Friday’s tape
- Friday’s low near the $22.30 area and the prior close near $24.51 create immediate reference points traders often watch for support/resistance and gap behavior. [20]
Bottom line: a weekend pause, not a resolution
Rigetti enters the next session after an outsized Friday pullback, but the story remains the same one investors have been trading all year: meaningful technical progress and strategic partnerships on one side, and a still‑nascent revenue base on the other. The next catalyst doesn’t have to be a quarterly print—any year‑end update connected to partnerships, government funding visibility, or roadmap milestones could be enough to reprice expectations quickly in a stock this volatile. [21]
References
1. www.aaii.com, 2. www.benzinga.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.fool.com, 7. www.fool.com, 8. www.quiverquant.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.aaii.com, 21. www.benzinga.com
