NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 5:16 p.m. ET — Market closed
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) enters the final trading days of 2025 with Wall Street still focused on one big question: how the AI boom evolves from training to inference—and whether Nvidia can stay the default platform as specialized rivals multiply. With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, investors are recapping Friday’s holiday-thinned session and parsing the latest headlines tied to Nvidia’s newly disclosed relationship with inference-chip specialist Groq.
NVDA stock: where shares left off before the weekend
Nvidia shares last closed Friday at $190.53, up about 1% on the day, as liquidity across U.S. equities remained light in the post-Christmas stretch. [1]
The broader backdrop matters: on Friday, the major U.S. indexes finished near record territory in a subdued session, and strategists continued to point to the seasonally watched “Santa Claus rally” window into early January. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, said the market was essentially “catching our breath” after a strong run, while keeping an eye on the seasonal tailwind. [2]
The Groq deal: what Nvidia and Groq actually announced
The centerpiece headline around NVDA this week is a non-exclusive inference technology licensing agreement between Nvidia and Groq—paired with what is effectively a talent transfer.
In Groq’s statement, the company said it entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Nvidia for Groq’s inference technology, adding that Groq founder Jonathan Ross, Groq President Sunny Madra, and other team members will join Nvidia “to help advance and scale the licensed technology.” Groq also said it will continue to operate independently with Simon Edwards stepping into the CEO role, and that GroqCloud will continue operating “without interruption.” [3]
Business Insider also described the arrangement as Nvidia licensing Groq’s inference tech and hiring key engineering talent, noting that neither company disclosed financial terms and citing a person familiar with the matter saying Nvidia is not acquiring Groq. [4]
Clearing up the “acquisition” noise
Part of the market reaction has been driven by confusion over whether Nvidia bought Groq outright.
Reuters reported that CNBC had described the situation as an acquisition, but that Groq did not disclose financial details and said it would remain independent; Reuters also reported that neither Nvidia nor Groq commented directly on the acquisition claim at the time. [5]
Investopedia, meanwhile, reported that Nvidia told it via email: “We haven’t acquired Groq.” [6]
For investors, the key takeaway is less about deal labels and more about strategic direction: Nvidia is leaning into inference—not just as a workload on GPUs, but as a domain where custom silicon approaches can threaten margins and market share.
Why inference is suddenly the battleground
Groq is known for hardware designed specifically for AI inference (the “serving” phase when trained models generate outputs). Reuters framed the competitive dynamic bluntly: Nvidia dominates training, but faces much broader competition in inference—from large rivals and startups alike. [7]
Analysts have also pointed to regulatory and structural considerations. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon noted that antitrust considerations can be a core risk in large tech deals—and suggested that a non-exclusive license structure may help maintain the appearance of competition even as leadership and technical talent shift. [8]
Analyst reaction: $275 price targets still dominate the conversation
What stands out in the last 24–48 hours is how quickly Wall Street analysts moved to reaffirm bullish stances after the Groq news flow.
MarketBeat’s compilation shows that on Dec. 26, Nvidia saw multiple reiterations:
- Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya reiterated Buy with a $275 target
- Robert W. Baird analyst Tristan Gerra reiterated Outperform with a $275 target
- Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon reiterated Outperform with a $275 target [9]
Separately, an Investing.com report said BofA viewed the Groq licensing development as a “surprise” that highlights a potential industry shift where inference may demand more specialized chips—while still keeping Nvidia as a top pick with a $275 objective. [10]
Street forecast snapshot: what consensus implies for NVDA in 2026
Beyond the headline $275 targets, the broader consensus remains optimistic. MarketBeat’s aggregated analyst data lists:
- Consensus rating: Buy (based on 53 analyst ratings)
- Average 12-month price target:$262.14
- High target:$352
- Low target:$205 [11]
Investopedia also cited a higher mean price target (tracked by Visible Alpha) and described analysts as broadly bullish, while highlighting that NVDA’s 2025 gains remained substantial. [12]
Fundamentals: Nvidia’s growth engine is still data center
While this week’s headlines are deal-driven, Nvidia’s stock ultimately trades on data center demand and its pace of product rollout.
In its most recent quarterly results announcement, Nvidia reported record revenue of $57.0 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, with data center revenue of $51.2 billion. Nvidia’s outlook also projected Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue of $65.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. [13]
CEO Jensen Huang said in that release that “Blackwell sales are off the charts,” and pointed to accelerating demand across both training and inference. [14]
That training-plus-inference framing is exactly why the Groq licensing arrangement is being interpreted as strategically meaningful: investors are watching for signs Nvidia will own not just the compute layer, but also the lowest-latency inference use cases.
What NVDA investors should know before the next session
With markets closed now, the next key question is what could move NVDA when trading resumes.
1) The calendar and liquidity matter in the final week of the year
Year-end trading can amplify moves because of reduced participation and positioning effects. Also, the next holiday adjustments are close: Investopedia notes that stocks trade a full day on New Year’s Eve (Wednesday, Dec. 31), bond trading ends at 2 p.m. ET that day, and both stock and bond markets are closed on Jan. 1, 2026. [15]
2) Watch for follow-up detail on the Groq relationship
Groq’s statement and Reuters’ reporting emphasize a licensing-and-talent structure, not a standard acquisition. But investors will be sensitive to any additional disclosures that clarify:
- scope of the licensed technology,
- how/where it could be integrated into Nvidia’s roadmap,
- whether Nvidia will productize anything beyond a talent-driven internal build-out. [16]
3) Analysts are signaling “inference defense” is a near-term narrative driver
BofA’s framing (as reported by Investing.com) is that Nvidia sees inference specialization as a real competitive pressure point. That doesn’t negate Nvidia’s GPU dominance—but it may shape product strategy and pricing over time. [17]
4) Broader market tone: Santa rally narrative remains in play
If the S&P 500 and Nasdaq keep grinding near highs into early January, mega-cap AI leaders like Nvidia often trade as a sentiment barometer. Reuters’ post-holiday market wrap underscores the “Santa Claus rally” window and the possibility of continued upward bias—though with the usual warning that volatility can return fast. [18]
Bottom line for NVDA stock heading into Monday
Nvidia closed the last full session of the week higher, with investors rewarding the idea that the company is proactively responding to an inference-first future—through licensing, recruiting, and ecosystem control rather than waiting for competitors to define the next phase of AI compute.
When markets reopen, the near-term NVDA story is likely to hinge on two forces pulling in the same direction: a still-bullish analyst community clustered around $275 targets, and a market-wide year-end tape that can exaggerate momentum—up or down—on any incremental headline tied to AI infrastructure. [19]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. groq.com, 4. www.businessinsider.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investopedia.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 14. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. groq.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com
