NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 7:38 p.m. ET — Market closed
Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) heads into the final week of 2025 with fresh catalyst-driven momentum after reports that activist investor Toms Capital Investment Management (TCIM) has built a “significant” position in the retailer — a development that helped lift Target shares in the latest session even as broader markets traded in thin, post-holiday conditions. [1]
With U.S. stock exchanges closed for the weekend, investors now have time to digest what activist pressure could mean for Target’s strategy, capital allocation, and governance — and what to watch for when trading resumes Monday. (Regular U.S. trading hours are 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with extended-hours sessions available through many brokers.) [2]
Target stock price check: where TGT stands heading into Monday
Target shares were last indicated around $99.55, up about 3.1% from the prior close after Friday’s trading, with the move drawing attention in a notably quiet holiday market. [3]
For context, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) finished essentially flat-to-slightly lower in the same session — a reminder that Target’s jump was more stock-specific than broad sector beta.
Why Target shares jumped: activist investor TCIM enters the picture
The key headline: TCIM has made a significant investment in Target, according to the Financial Times, a report later amplified across market coverage. The stake size has not been disclosed publicly, and the reporting has not specified what demands TCIM may pursue. [4]
Target told Reuters it maintains “regular dialogue” with investors and that its “top priority is getting back to growth.” [5]
While TCIM is described as relatively unknown in retail activism, Reuters noted the firm has recently been linked to activism at other large companies, including involvement around Kenvue, Kellanova, and U.S. Steel. [6]
The backdrop: a struggling retail story meets a governance transition
The timing matters because Target is already in a high-stakes transition year:
- Reuters reported Target shares have lost more than 28% in 2025 amid three straight quarters of falling comparable sales, a performance gap versus key rivals that has become increasingly hard for investors to ignore. [7]
- Target’s CEO transition is close: the company has said Michael Fiddelke will become CEO and join the board Feb. 1, 2026, while current CEO Brian Cornell is expected to become executive chair. [8]
- Reuters also highlighted governance criticism of that structure and pointed to a shareholder push for an independent chair, including efforts by nonprofit shareholder activist group The Accountability Board. [9]
In one of the most pointed reactions reported by Reuters, Matt Prescott, president of The Accountability Board, said the TCIM stake “signals that investors are hungry for change,” and argued it could strengthen support for the group’s shareholder proposal. [10]
What activists may target at Target: real estate, costs, and “retail fundamentals”
One enduring debate around Target is whether activists could push for financial engineering — particularly involving Target’s sizable real estate footprint.
Reuters cited UBS analyst Michael Lasser as estimating Target owns about 75% of its real estate (including land). That kind of asset base can become a magnet for proposals ranging from sale-leasebacks to more dramatic real-estate monetization structures. [11]
But Reuters also reported a caution from Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData, who argued that a real-estate selloff would likely deliver only short-term benefits and that Target’s bigger need is a revamp of products, stores, prices, and selling methods — i.e., a return to retail execution over “financial games.” [12]
This isn’t Target’s first encounter with activists, either: Reuters pointed to the company’s 2009 proxy fight with Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman, when shareholders ultimately rejected a real-estate spinoff plan. [13]
Strategy and investment: Target’s 2026 spending plans and restructuring are already in motion
Even before the latest activist headlines, Target had begun outlining a heavier investment posture and cost actions.
Reuters reported Target laid out plans to spend an additional $1 billion in 2026 on new store openings and remodels, and noted the company cut 1,800 corporate roles as part of a broader restructuring. [14]
The Financial Times also framed 2026 as a reset year, describing a planned $5 billion investment in 2026 to revamp stores and digital capabilities (as reported by FT), alongside pressure from tariffs and a heavier reliance on discretionary categories than some value-driven peers. [15]
Post-holiday demand: what the next few weeks could reveal about traffic and margins
Beyond activism, Target is entering the post-Christmas window when retailers often see a surge in gift-card redemptions — and heightened promotions that can boost volume but compress gross margins.
Target’s own corporate blog said gift card usage at Target rises four times higher between Christmas and New Year’s Eve, and the retailer is leaning into “major savings” tied to wellness, party, and seasonal categories. [16]
Consumer-facing coverage has also highlighted sizable after-Christmas markdowns at Target across categories like home, tech, and apparel — useful color for investors watching how promotional intensity may impact profitability. [17]
The earnings setup: what Target last guided — and what Wall Street expects next
Target’s most recent company-issued financial update (its third-quarter report) provides the framework investors are likely to return to as headlines cool:
- Target reported Q3 net sales of $25.3 billion (down 1.5% year over year) and comparable sales down 2.7%, with digital comparable sales up 2.4%. [18]
- For Q4 2025, Target said it was maintaining expectations of a low-single-digit decline in sales. [19]
- The company’s full-year outlook in that release included GAAP EPS of about $7.70 to $8.70 and adjusted EPS of about $7.00 to $8.00. [20]
On the Street’s forward view, consensus-style aggregations show a more cautious stance overall. MarketBeat lists Target with a “Hold” consensus rating based on 36 analyst ratings, and an average 12-month price target of about $102.62 (roughly low-single-digit upside from recent levels), while also showing a wide dispersion between high and low targets. [21]
Dividend and capital returns: why income investors still pay attention to TGT
Even amid sluggish sales trends, Target remains notable for shareholder returns:
- In Q3, Target said it paid $518 million in dividends and repurchased $152 million of shares, with $8.3 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization approved in August 2021. [22]
- Dividend-focused data services list Target with a forward annual dividend of $4.56 and a forward yield around the mid-4% range, alongside a long history of dividend increases (as tracked by those services). [23]
For activists, that combination — meaningful cash returns plus pressure to “fix” retail fundamentals — can set up debates over whether more aggressive buybacks (or asset moves) should take priority over reinvestment.
Market context: year-end conditions can amplify stock-specific moves
It’s worth noting that Target’s surge came during a session Reuters described as light-volume and catalyst-thin, with investors watching the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window and positioning into year-end. [24]
Reuters also reported that Fed minutes are among the key items on the week-ahead calendar, with investors focused on the path of interest rates after the central bank’s cuts earlier in 2025. [25]
What investors should watch before Monday’s open
With markets closed now, here are the practical items most likely to move Target stock when trading resumes:
1) Any disclosure from TCIM (or other new holders)
Because the stake size has not been disclosed publicly, investors will be watching for any beneficial ownership filings that clarify how large TCIM’s position is and whether it is seeking active influence. SEC rules generally require public reporting by investors who cross key ownership thresholds (with deadlines that have been tightened in recent years). [26]
2) Signals on governance
With Target already facing criticism of its CEO-to-executive-chair plan, any activist push for board changes, committee reshuffles, or an independent chair could become a central narrative into 2026. [27]
3) Evidence of post-holiday demand vs. margin pressure
Watch for updates and third-party reads (industry checks, channel commentary, promotional intensity) that speak to whether gift-card redemptions and after-Christmas deals are driving profitable traffic — or simply higher markdowns. Target itself has highlighted the post-Christmas gift-card surge. [28]
4) Macro headlines in thin year-end liquidity
Year-end sessions can exaggerate moves. Reuters’ week-ahead coverage flagged potential volatility around Fed-related news and positioning effects, even if the tape is generally calmer. [29]
5) The holiday trading calendar into 2026
Investors planning trades around liquidity should note the market schedule: stock markets have a full session on Dec. 31, and are closed on Jan. 1, 2026 for New Year’s Day. [30]
Bottom line for Target stock
Target enters the next session with momentum driven by a classic market catalyst: activist involvement plus an impending CEO transition. But the longer-term direction of TGT will still hinge on whether management (and potentially activists) can translate pressure into measurable improvement in sales trends, merchandising, and customer value perception — without sacrificing margins through perpetual discounting.
Monday’s open could be shaped less by what happened Friday and more by what comes next: filings that reveal TCIM’s hand, Target’s response, and any concrete proposals that turn a headline into an actionable transformation plan. [31]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. corporate.target.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.ft.com, 16. corporate.target.com, 17. people.com, 18. corporate.target.com, 19. corporate.target.com, 20. corporate.target.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. corporate.target.com, 23. www.dividend.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. corporate.target.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.investopedia.com, 31. www.reuters.com
