NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 7:59 p.m. ET — Market closed (weekend).
Applied Digital Corporation (Nasdaq: APLD) is heading into the final trading days of 2025 with an unusual mix of forces tugging at the stock: a sharp, holiday-thinned pullback in the most recent session, steady bullish analyst targets, and an AI data-center buildout story that can flip sentiment on a single financing or customer headline.
With U.S. equities closed for the weekend, APLD investors are now looking ahead to the next regular session on Monday, Dec. 29—when liquidity and positioning can shift quickly, especially in high-volatility AI infrastructure names.
APLD stock price at the weekend close: what just happened
APLD last traded at $24.05, down $1.67 (-6.49%) from the prior close. [1]
MarketBeat’s Friday recap highlighted a key nuance behind the move: volume was roughly 15.26 million shares, which it characterized as about 56% below the stock’s average daily volume—an important backdrop in late-December trading, when thinner liquidity can exaggerate price swings. [2]
Even after the late-year volatility, APLD’s 2025 performance has been extraordinary. A recent Motley Fool analysis pegged the stock’s 2025 gain at roughly ~260% and described the shares as “incredibly volatile” since October—an accurate summary of how quickly sentiment has rotated in AI-linked infrastructure trades. [3]
The “pressure points” behind APLD’s big swings: short interest and derivatives
Two market-structure factors continue to loom over APLD:
1) Elevated short interest.
As of Dec. 15, 2025, MarketBeat reported 78.69 million shares sold short—about 31.14% of the public float—with a days-to-cover ratio around 3.1. High short interest doesn’t predict direction, but it can intensify both rallies (via covering) and drawdowns (if risk appetite fades). [4]
2) Notable options flow.
Benzinga flagged a bullish call-options trade tied to APLD: 199 call contracts at a $25 strike, expiring Jan. 16, 2026 (with Benzinga also noting changes in contracts traded and existing open interest at that strike). This type of flow isn’t a guarantee of upside—but it’s another sign that traders are actively positioning around near-term catalysts into early 2026. [5]
The fundamental story: why investors keep coming back to Applied Digital
Applied Digital’s bull case still rests on a straightforward AI-era constraint: data-center power and “AI-ready” capacity are scarce, and companies that can secure sites, power, and cooling at scale may win long-duration contracts.
Applied Digital has been positioning itself as a builder/operator of next-generation digital infrastructure for high-performance computing and AI workloads, and the company has repeatedly emphasized hyperscale demand and the strategic value of moving quickly on site development. [6]
The hyperscaler lease backdrop still matters
One of the most consequential developments in 2025 was Applied Digital’s announcement of a $5 billion, 15-year lease with a U.S.-based hyperscaler for 200 MW at its Polaris Forge 2 data center campus in North Dakota, Reuters reported in October. While not new in the last 48 hours, this deal remains central to the “proof of demand” narrative that many investors use to justify premium valuations across AI infrastructure. [7]
The most important company update investors are still digesting: Macquarie development financing
Although the biggest official company news isn’t from the past 48 hours, it continues to shape near-term debate because it speaks directly to the market’s core question: how Applied Digital funds growth while bridging from construction to more stable, contracted cash flows.
On Dec. 18, Applied Digital announced it entered into a development loan facility with Macquarie Group’s Commodities and Global Markets business to fund pre-lease development costs for new data center projects. The company said it was in advanced-stage negotiations with another investment-grade hyperscaler for multiple campuses, and that the initial $100 million in draws was intended to support development activities tied to those campuses. [8]
Chairman and CEO Wes Cummins framed the strategic intent plainly: “This development facility strengthens our ability to move quickly on high-quality sites while maintaining capital flexibility,” he said. [9]
In an accompanying SEC filing around the same time frame, the company described the initial promissory-note mechanics, including a first draw of $45 million and a second draw of $55 million (with additional funding subject to conditions), underscoring that this is designed as development capital rather than a generic, unrestricted cash raise. [10]
What’s “new” in the last 24–48 hours: headlines and fresh analysis
As of Saturday evening in New York, the most recent APLD coverage has centered on three themes:
1) A year-end pullback after an outsized 2025 rally
MarketBeat’s Friday note focused on the day’s decline, the lower-than-usual volume environment, and the fact that Wall Street’s consensus stance remains broadly constructive even amid volatility. [11]
2) 2026 positioning and the “can it keep winning?” question
A Dec. 26 Motley Fool piece argued that while growth has been strong, the stock’s valuation has expanded dramatically—citing a price-to-sales multiple “nearly 30 times sales” and emphasizing that Applied Digital’s margins are far lower than software-like businesses that often command such multiples. [12]
3) The next major catalyst is now clearly dated: Jan. 7
A fresh Nasdaq-hosted Motley Fool article published Saturday (Dec. 27) put the spotlight on Applied Digital’s scheduled fiscal 2026 second-quarter report on Jan. 7 and said investors will be watching revenue, profitability trends, and cash flow closely. It cited Q1 FY2026 revenue of $64.2 million (+84% year over year), referenced average analyst revenue projections of $82 million for Q2, and highlighted negative operating cash flow and losses as key ongoing issues to monitor. [13]
Separately, a Kavout MarketLens post published Saturday framed Applied Digital as a standout 2025 performer and emphasized the broader investor shift toward “AI infrastructure” scarcity value—though readers should treat third-party commentary as opinion and cross-check key figures with filings and company disclosures. [14]
Analyst forecasts: where Wall Street sees APLD heading
Wall Street’s price targets remain wide—typical for a high-volatility, capital-intensive buildout story—but the central tendency is still positive:
MarketBeat reports APLD carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating and an average 12‑month price target of $26.20 (about 8.94% upside from $24.05), with a high target of $41.00 and a low target of $7.00. [15]
Quiver Quantitative’s roundup also lists multiple Buy/Outperform-type ratings from firms such as Needham, Craig-Hallum, Northland Capital Markets, Lake Street, HC Wainwright, JMP Securities, and Roth Capital in recent months—useful context for investors tracking how the Street has stayed constructive even as the stock whipsaws. [16]
The bull vs. bear debate investors will carry into Monday
The bullish case
Supporters argue Applied Digital is becoming a “picks-and-shovels” AI infrastructure provider—building power-dense, AI-optimized facilities and leveraging execution to win long-duration leases. A recent Motley Fool piece also pointed to Applied Digital’s development pipeline and included Cummins’ view that major lease wins help validate execution and strategic positioning with large tech customers. [17]
The Macquarie development facility also strengthens the “speed-to-site” thesis: getting early-stage capital can help secure locations and start pre-lease development work while negotiations with large customers progress. [18]
The skeptical case
Skeptics focus on valuation, margins, and cash burn risk. The Dec. 26 Motley Fool analysis argued the stock is priced like a high-margin software business despite far lower margins, and it warned that the multiple expansion itself could become a headwind if growth expectations cool. [19]
Meanwhile, the Jan. 7 earnings setup has clear “prove-it” pressure: the Nasdaq-hosted Motley Fool preview stressed that investors should watch not just revenue but also losses and cash flow, pointing to negative cash flow and net losses in Q1. [20]
What investors should know before the next session opens
Because the market is closed right now, Monday’s open will be shaped by positioning and any weekend headlines. Here are the most practical items APLD investors typically monitor heading into the next regular session:
Watch liquidity and volatility early. Friday’s lower trading volume is a reminder that year-end conditions can amplify moves—up or down—especially for high-beta AI infrastructure names. [21]
Track short-interest dynamics. With short interest still elevated (per the latest reported data), APLD can react sharply to incremental news—particularly anything that shifts confidence in financing, construction timelines, or customer signings. [22]
Keep Jan. 7 front and center. Applied Digital has scheduled its fiscal Q2 2026 results for Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026, with the company stating results will be issued after the market closes and a conference call is set for 5:00 p.m. ET. [23]
Key items the market is likely to emphasize include: revenue trajectory versus expectations, cash flow trends, and any update on development milestones or additional large-tenant discussions. [24]
Expect the narrative to remain headline-driven. Applied Digital has explicitly linked its development financing to advanced negotiations with an investment-grade hyperscaler and continued pursuit of large-scale campus opportunities—exactly the type of storyline that can move the stock quickly when new details emerge. [25]
Bottom line
As APLD heads into the next trading session, the stock sits at the intersection of a massive secular theme (AI data-center infrastructure) and the near-term realities of capital intensity, valuation, and execution risk. Friday’s drop doesn’t erase the 2025 surge—but it does reinforce the central rule of trading and investing in this name: Applied Digital can move fast, and it often does so around financing and customer visibility. [26]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.fool.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.benzinga.com, 6. ir.applieddigital.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. ir.applieddigital.com, 9. ir.applieddigital.com, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.fool.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.kavout.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.quiverquant.com, 17. www.fool.com, 18. ir.applieddigital.com, 19. www.fool.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. ir.applieddigital.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. ir.applieddigital.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com
