NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 8:04 PM ET — Market Closed
Lemonade, Inc. (NYSE: LMND) heads into the weekend with investors recalibrating after a sharp down day that interrupted the insurtech stock’s powerful 2025 run. LMND finished Friday’s regular session at $74.69, down 6.40%, after trading as low as $73.80. In the final minutes of extended trading, shares were $74.10 at 7:59 PM ET, according to Stock Analysis data. [1]
The pullback landed LMND on multiple “movers” lists during Friday’s holiday-thinned session—an environment that can exaggerate price moves in volatile names. Investing.com flagged Lemonade among notable mid-cap decliners, while broader U.S. indexes were little changed (the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both off modestly). [2]
What happened to LMND on Friday
In a widely circulated MarketBeat note dated Dec. 26, Lemonade shares were described as dropping about 6.5% during the session, with trading volume running far below typical levels—MarketBeat cited volume down about 91% versus its average daily volume. [3]
Low-liquidity sessions can cut both ways for LMND, which has become a high-momentum, sentiment-driven name. TipRanks’ weekend update described Lemonade as down 9.49% over the past week, calling it a “sharp pullback” after a strong year-to-date rally fueled by bullish speculation and upbeat analyst commentary. [4]
The latest LMND news in the last 24–48 hours
While there were no major company announcements in the past day, several market-facing updates framed the conversation around LMND:
- Friday movers coverage: Investing.com highlighted Lemonade as a notable mid-cap mover on Dec. 26, listing LMND down roughly 6.61% in its roundup of significant gainers and decliners. [5]
- Weekend analysis framing the pullback: TipRanks’ weekend piece said the recent decline is shifting the story from “hot rally” to a debate over whether valuation has outrun near-term fundamentals, even as the company’s operating trends improve. [6]
- Weekly wrap attention: Seeking Alpha published a “week’s financials wrap” on Dec. 27 that included LMND among the group of names discussed for the five trading sessions ending Dec. 26, underscoring the stock’s visibility as a high-beta financial. [7]
In short: the newest “news” is less about a single headline and more about a change in tone—LMND is transitioning from a straight-line momentum narrative to a push-and-pull between improved fundamentals and a stock price that already baked in a lot of optimism.
Analyst sentiment: the $85 ceiling keeps coming up
A key reason LMND remains in focus is the intensity of recent analyst activity and price-target revisions.
Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley upgraded Lemonade to Equalweight from Underweight and set a $85 price target, according to Investing.com’s analyst-ratings report. [8] That $85 level has since become a widely referenced upside marker in the name.
TipRanks’ weekend coverage also pointed to that Morgan Stanley upgrade as part of the fuel behind the rally, while noting the stock has also seen “Hold” reinforcement from Piper Sandler and target hikes from other firms as investors digested improved earnings trends and operational efficiencies. [9]
One example with a named analyst: Piper Sandler analyst John Barnidge maintained a Hold rating and raised his target price on Lemonade from $55 to $85, according to a Dec. 19 item carried by Moomoo News. [10]
Where Wall Street’s consensus sits now: “Hold,” with targets below the current price
Despite multiple bullish target raises, aggregated forecasts still suggest a more cautious consensus.
MarketBeat’s compiled analyst data shows:
- Consensus rating: Hold
- Average 12-month price target: $63.14
- High target: $85.00
- Low target: $40.00 [11]
TradingView’s analyst aggregation similarly listed a $61.75 price target for LMND, with a max estimate of $85.00 and a min estimate of $33.00, and characterized the overall rating as “neutral.” [12]
That split—headline-grabbing high targets alongside a consensus target below the current trading level—helps explain the stock’s hair-trigger reactions. When LMND rallies, skeptics quickly point to consensus downside; when it drops, bulls point to the same $85 targets and argue the long-term story is intact.
Fundamentals check: what Lemonade guided and why profitability is still the debate
The biggest question for long-horizon investors is whether Lemonade’s improving operating metrics can eventually outrun its valuation multiple.
In its Q3 2025 shareholder letter, Lemonade reported:
- In Force Premium (IFP) up 30% year over year to $1.16 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA improved to a loss of ($26) million
- Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $18 million [13]
On guidance, the same shareholder letter said the company had raised full-year 2025 guidance for several metrics and reiterated expectations of positive Adjusted Free Cash Flow for FY 2025. It also said Lemonade expects positive Adjusted EBITDA for the full quarter in Q4 2026, positioning that as a key milestone on its profitability arc. [14]
For investors trying to connect that operating story to what matters next in the stock, there are two near-term lenses:
- Revenue trajectory and unit economics
- Confidence in the path to profitability (especially how quickly underwriting performance and expense leverage can improve at scale)
Next catalyst: the next earnings window is coming into view
Because the market is closed and there’s no fresh company headline tonight, attention shifts to the calendar.
MarketBeat estimates Lemonade’s next earnings report is likely Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026, before the market opens (estimated, based on prior reporting schedules). [15]
MarketBeat also summarized Lemonade’s most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025): EPS of -$0.51 vs. a consensus estimate of -$0.72, with quarterly revenue of $194.50 million, described as up 42.4% year over year and above analyst expectations. [16]
Separately, Lemonade’s own shareholder letter included Q4 2025 revenue guidance of $217–$222 million and full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $727–$732 million—figures that will shape expectations heading into that next print. [17]
The volatility factor: short interest remains elevated
LMND’s moves often look outsized compared with the day’s fundamental news flow, and positioning is part of the reason.
MarketBeat’s short-interest data (as of Dec. 15, 2025) showed:
- 13.16 million shares sold short
- 20.12% of the public float
- 5.3 days to cover
- A 7.8% decline in short interest versus the prior report [18]
High short interest can create two-way risk: it can amplify selloffs if momentum breaks, and it can accelerate rallies if buying pressure forces covering.
What investors should watch before the next session (Monday)
With the NYSE closed for the weekend, LMND investors are effectively heading into Monday with a “reset” checklist:
1) Whether Friday’s drop holds or fades in premarket
Premarket action can matter more than usual after a fast move into the close, especially for sentiment-heavy stocks.
2) Liquidity returning after the holiday week
Friday’s reporting highlighted unusually light trading volume—when volume normalizes, it can either stabilize price action or confirm a trend. [19]
3) The tug-of-war between targets and valuation
The same analyst ecosystem that helped propel LMND upward—highlighted by the recurring $85 target—now sits alongside consensus targets in the low $60s range. That tension tends to keep the stock reactive to any incremental information (macro, peer results, or insurer sentiment). [20]
4) The earnings runway and guidance credibility
If you’re holding into the next earnings window, the most important question is whether Lemonade continues to progress along its stated arc: raised 2025 guidance, positive adjusted free cash flow expectations for FY 2025, and a longer-term goal of positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026. [21]
Lemonade stock enters next week at a crossroads familiar to high-growth, high-volatility names: improving operating trends and a clear profitability roadmap on one side, and a market that can quickly punish valuation and sentiment excess on the other. For now, the latest 24–48 hours have been less about a new corporate headline—and more about the market testing how much optimism LMND can sustain after a strong run. [22]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.tipranks.com, 7. seekingalpha.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.moomoo.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.lemonade.com, 14. www.lemonade.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.lemonade.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.lemonade.com, 22. www.tipranks.com
