Pony AI Inc. (PONY) Stock: Weekend Market Wrap, Analyst Targets, and Robotaxi Catalysts to Watch Before Monday

NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET — Market closed

Pony AI Inc. (Nasdaq: PONY) heads into the final trading days of 2025 with investors debating a familiar question in the robotaxi trade: is the market pricing in commercialization fast enough—or too fast? The autonomous-driving developer’s American depositary shares last finished at $14.96, down about 4.7% on the most recent session, with late Friday extended-hours prints around $14.92, leaving the stock consolidating well below its fall highs as the U.S. equity market shuts down for the weekend. ^[1]

While there were no blockbuster company announcements over the past day, the last 24–48 hours brought a fresh wave of analyst-roundup headlines and investor-facing commentary focused on (1) why the stock slid on Friday and (2) how wide the Street’s target range remains for a still-young public company operating in a high-regulation, capital-intensive category. ^[2]

PONY stock recap: what happened in the latest session

PONY’s latest session saw a wide intraday range, with data showing the stock traded roughly between $14.22 and $15.71 while volume ran in the multi‑million share range.

MarketBeat’s Friday tape-read focused on a sharp drop and flagged that volume during the day was running well below its cited “average session” figure at the time of its update—an indicator that, in thin late‑December conditions, price can move quickly on relatively modest order flow. ^[3]

That context matters this week: year-end trading often brings lighter liquidity, and many high-volatility, story-driven names can overreact to incremental changes in sentiment—especially when the “news” is more about ratings, targets, and positioning than new operational milestones.

The last 24–48 hours of Pony AI stock news and commentary

Over the past two days, the most visible PONY-specific coverage has been market commentary and analyst consensus updates, rather than new company operational disclosures:

Analyst-consensus roundups: Multiple MarketBeat posts circulating Friday emphasized that PONY is broadly rated around “Moderate Buy,” while also highlighting how dispersed targets and ratings remain across covering firms. ^[4]
AAII’s Saturday write-up: AAII published a stock-move explainer dated Dec. 27, summarizing Friday’s close, the day’s trading range, shares outstanding, and its own grading view—calling the name “Ultra Expensive” under its Value Grade framework. ^[5]
Motley Fool’s cautionary take: In a Dec. 26 column framed for retirement-minded investors, Motley Fool contributor John Bromels argued that Pony.ai’s upcoming results (especially Q4 comparisons) could be pivotal and suggested waiting for more reporting history given the company’s relatively recent IPO. ^[6]

In other words: the conversation is currently being driven by expectations—not a breaking headline about new permits, new partnerships, or a major financial update.

Wall Street forecasts: where analysts see PONY heading

One reason PONY remains a Discover-friendly ticker is the size of the gap between the stock’s current price and where many analyst models land—though the exact “consensus” depends on the data set.

MarketBeat’s compilation: Average $21.70 target across 9 analysts, with a $15 low and $29 high (about 45% implied upside from $14.96). ^[7]
TipRanks’ snapshot: Average $26.52 across 5 analysts (high $32.80, low $15), implying materially higher upside if those targets prove durable. ^[8]
Investing.com consensus table: Shows an average target around $24.10, with targets ranging $15–$32.80, and lists recent initiations across firms (Barclays, Macquarie, Jefferies, Citi, and others). ^[9]
StockAnalysis detail (with named analysts): Posts an average target around $20.87 and lists several major calls and dates. ^[10]

The most watched recent calls (and the names behind them)

If you’re scanning what could move PONY in the next session, the most actionable items are the new-coverage initiations and recent target changes:

Macquarie initiated with a Buy and $29 target (listed under analyst Eugene Hsiao). ^[11]
Barclays initiated with a Hold and $15 target (listed under analyst Jiong Shao). ^[12]
Citigroup maintained a bullish stance while trimming its target into the mid‑$20s in early November (listed under analyst Jeff Chung on one compilation; MarketBeat also references Citi’s cut). ^[13]
UBS initiated at $20 with a Strong Buy rating (listed under analyst Paul Gong). ^[14]

On the bearish side, MarketBeat’s recent recaps also point to downgrades/sell ratings from services such as Wall Street Zen and Weiss Ratings, underscoring that not everyone buys the “robotaxi hockey stick” narrative at today’s valuation. ^[15]

The business backdrop: robotaxi scale, permits, and commercialization pressure

PONY’s stock story is ultimately tethered to one thing: whether robotaxi operations can scale into a repeatable, profitable model faster than dilution and competition compress the upside.

In late December sector coverage, Reuters described accelerating global robotaxi deployments and highlighted Pony.ai’s progress, including paid robotaxi services in Guangzhou and Shanghai and a city-wide permit in Shenzhen, plus ongoing testing of newer-generation robotaxis in Beijing and stated plans tied to Hong Kong operations. ^[16]

Earlier in 2025, Reuters also reported on Uber partnering with Pony.ai to deploy the company’s vehicles onto Uber’s ride-hailing platform in a Middle East launch, with a plan to expand to additional international markets over time (starting with a safety-operator phase before a fully autonomous commercial launch). ^[17]

And on the company’s Q3 2025 earnings call (as published in an Investing.com transcript package), management emphasized a set of commercialization metrics investors keep returning to: revenue growth, gross margin improvement, and claims around improving unit economics as the fleet scales. The transcript summary highlighted Q3 revenue of $25.4 million, 72% year-over-year growth, gross margin improvement, and management commentary about scaling fleet deployment and expanding partnerships. ^[18]

The broader market setup going into Monday

PONY doesn’t trade in a vacuum—especially in the final week of the year, when macro sentiment and “risk-on” flows can amplify moves in emerging tech.

Into Friday, Investopedia reported that stock futures action reflected a market coming off multiple sessions of index gains in holiday-shortened trade, alongside notable crosscurrents (commodities strength and ongoing AI mega-cap headlines). ^[19]
Kiplinger’s end-of-week wrap also characterized the post-holiday backdrop as part of the market’s “Santa Claus rally” window even as indexes saw a modest pullback in the latest session.

For a name like Pony AI—where the thesis is forward-looking and sensitive to rate expectations—any shift in “growth stock” appetite can show up quickly, particularly when liquidity is thin.

If you own (or are considering) PONY: what to know before the next session

Because the market is closed right now, the practical question becomes: what could change between now and Monday’s open that actually matters?

1) Remember the calendar: year-end sessions and New Year’s closures

U.S. stocks have a full trading day on New Year’s Eve (Dec. 31), and markets are closed on Jan. 1, 2026 for New Year’s Day, according to Investopedia’s holiday schedule reporting. ^[20]
Nasdaq’s published holiday calendar similarly lays out year-end closures and early-close conventions. ^[21]

That means there are only a handful of regular sessions left in 2025 for position adjustments, tax-related trades, and window dressing—factors that can matter disproportionately for volatile mid-cap growth names.

2) Expect thinner liquidity and faster price discovery

Friday’s swing and the commentary around volume versus averages is a reminder that late-December tape conditions can exaggerate moves—up or down—on headlines that might not matter as much during high-liquidity periods. ^[22]

3) Watch for target/rating follow-through—especially after new coverage

Recent initiations (and target ranges from $15 to the low $30s) tell you the debate is not about whether autonomy is real; it’s about timelines, unit economics, and capital requirements. If more desks pick up coverage—or if existing analysts refresh models after year-end checks—PONY can move on “paper” changes alone. ^[23]

4) Keep an eye on filings that hint at share supply

Even when there’s no headline, filings can influence sentiment around near-term supply. For example, SEC records show Form 144 filings dated Dec. 23, 2025 tied to Pony AI, identifying reporting persons and indicating proposed sales under Rule 144 (a notice, not necessarily a completed sale). ^[24]
Separately, Pony AI also filed a Form 6‑K dated Dec. 4, 2025 referencing a monthly return related to movements in share capital/issued shares in connection with Hong Kong reporting. ^[25]

5) The real catalyst investors keep circling: proof of scalable unit economics

The stock’s long-term direction is likely to depend less on weekly price targets and more on whether Pony.ai can repeatedly demonstrate:

expanding paid operations and regulatory access,
improving margins and utilization as fleet size grows,
and a credible path to profitability without excessive dilution.

Recent sector reporting and the company’s own earnings-call messaging both emphasize that the robotaxi industry is moving from pilots toward broader commercialization—but the market will continue to penalize any mismatch between scale ambitions and near-term financial reality. ^[26]

Bottom line: With the market closed, PONY’s next meaningful price signal will come when liquidity returns on Monday—first through any early-week positioning and then through how investors weigh the tug-of-war between bullish commercialization narratives and the caution flags (valuation, timeline risk, and the normal volatility of a relatively recent IPO). ^[27]