NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:29 a.m. ET — Market closed
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) heads into the final trading week of 2025 with Wall Street still debating a familiar trade-off: explosive AI infrastructure demand versus the margin pressure that can come with lower-margin “systems” revenue and a richer AI mix. With U.S. stock markets closed Sunday and set to reopen Monday, December 29, investors are using the weekend to parse a fresh wave of analyst notes and year-end outlooks—many of them constructive—after Broadcom’s mid-December volatility. [1]
Where Broadcom stock stands going into Monday’s session
Broadcom shares last traded around $352.13, marking the most recent official price from the prior session and putting the stock modestly higher versus the previous close. [2]
The stock finished the holiday-shortened week with a steady climb from $341.45 (Dec. 22 close) to $352.13 (Dec. 26 close)—about +3.1% over that stretch—despite lingering investor nerves tied to margin dilution from AI-driven product mix. [3]
Broader markets ended Friday, December 26, nearly flat in thin, post-Christmas trading—a backdrop that can amplify single-stock swings at year-end when liquidity is lighter than usual. [4]
The market backdrop: thin liquidity, “Santa Claus rally” watch, and a Fed-focused week ahead
Friday’s tape was quiet across Wall Street, with the S&P 500 slipping only slightly and trading volumes reported well below normal as many institutional desks stay relatively inactive late in the year. [5]
Strategists are also watching the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window and positioning into year-end milestones, with Reuters noting the market’s strong 2025 performance and the S&P 500 hovering close to the widely watched 7,000 level. [6]
Next week’s macro calendar matters for AVGO because Broadcom trades as a mega-cap AI infrastructure bellwether, often moving with rates, growth sentiment, and megacap tech flows. Key scheduled events include:
- Monday (Dec. 29): Pending home sales
- Tuesday (Dec. 30): Case-Shiller home prices, Chicago Business Barometer, and minutes from the Fed’s December meeting
- Wednesday (Dec. 31): Weekly jobless claims; bond markets close early (2 p.m. ET)
- Thursday (Jan. 1): U.S. markets closed for New Year’s Day [7]
The core Broadcom debate: AI is booming—so why did the stock wobble?
Broadcom’s most recent earnings cycle (reported earlier this month) sharpened the “growth vs. margins” conversation.
Reuters reported that Broadcom projected first-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates, but warned that gross margins would dip due to a higher mix of AI revenue, pressuring shares in extended trading at the time. CFO Kirsten Spears told investors the company expected gross margin to fall roughly 100 basis points sequentially, attributing the change primarily to the AI mix. [8]
That margin message resurfaced in a separate Reuters follow-up on December 12, which described how Broadcom’s warning helped reignite investor anxiety about the profitability of Big Tech’s AI spending wave—even as some analysts argued the panic was premature. [9]
The company’s AI visibility remains central to the bullish case. Reuters quoted CEO Hock Tan discussing a $73 billion backlog that Broadcom anticipated shipping over the next 18 months, while also flagging that customer concentration is still a factor investors keep returning to. [10]
What’s new in the last 24–48 hours: weekend analyst takes turn more upbeat
With the market closed, the last day’s biggest AVGO “news” has been analysis—and much of it leans positive after the pullback from early-December highs.
1) TipRanks: new price-target boosts highlight a “strong upside” narrative
A TipRanks weekend report said Wall Street expects continued upside in 2026, pointing to Broadcom’s AI-led demand for custom ASICs and networking. It highlighted Benchmark analyst Cody Acree, who raised his price target to $485 (from $385) and reiterated Buy, and UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri, who lifted his target to $475 and maintained Buy. [11]
TipRanks also reported a Strong Buy consensus on its platform and cited an average price target of $455.63, implying meaningful upside from recent levels (per TipRanks’ compilation). [12]
2) Seeking Alpha: “favorite pick” framing, with a $442 target (author’s model)
A Seeking Alpha note published early Sunday (ET) argued Broadcom remains a leading AI semiconductor beneficiary and said margin concerns are often overstated, assigning a Buy view with a $442 target price. (This is an independent author analysis, not company guidance.) [13]
3) Trefis: “Attractive but volatile,” with a $457 scenario
Trefis published a weekend piece outlining a multi-factor view that suggests AVGO could reach $457, while still calling valuation “very high” and emphasizing volatility risk. [14]
4) 24/7 Wall St.: a “load up now” angle after the post-earnings drop
A 24/7 Wall St. analysis revisited Broadcom’s post-earnings decline earlier this month and framed it as a disconnect between fundamentals (including AI revenue growth and guidance) and market reaction—again anchoring the investor debate around backlog optics, margin mix, and VMware-related software growth expectations. [15]
5) Fund flows / holdings chatter
MarketBeat published filings-based pieces over the weekend highlighting institutional position changes and summarizing a cluster of analyst price-target updates that followed Broadcom’s December earnings and margin commentary. [16]
Forecasts and analyst framework: what matters most for AVGO into 2026
Across the recent commentaries, the forward-looking case for Broadcom stock keeps circling the same pillars:
AI custom silicon + networking demand
Broadcom’s role in custom accelerators (ASICs) and high-speed networking for hyperscale AI data centers is repeatedly cited as a key long-duration driver. Reuters described how Broadcom works with hyperscale cloud providers to design and manufacture these processors, which compete as an alternative to Nvidia’s GPU-centric approach. [17]
Backlog visibility, but also concentration risk
Reuters reported that investor concerns included customer concentration and the mix shift toward AI system sales with lower gross margins. Kinngai Chan (Summit Insights) was quoted tying the share drop to concentration and margin dynamics as systems become a larger part of sales. [18]
Margin mix and manufacturing cost sensitivity
Reuters also cited Gil Luria (D.A. Davidson) warning that costs—such as those tied to contract manufacturing—could squeeze the economics of custom AI processors depending on the revenue mix. [19]
A split market on whether the margin fear is overdone
On the more constructive side, Reuters quoted Ben Reitzes (Melius Research) saying it was too early to “hit that panic button” on AI spending intentions. Reuters also reported that Morningstar analysts argued they were not concerned about margin dilution because the chips could still be operating-margin accretive. [20]
Dividend and shareholder returns: what income investors should note before the next session
Broadcom’s board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.65 per share, payable December 31, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 22, 2025. For investors buying now, the key point is that the record/ex-date window has already passed for this payment, but the distribution remains a near-term cash-flow event for holders. [21]
If you’re watching AVGO into Monday: a practical checklist
With markets reopening Monday morning, here’s what investors typically focus on before the bell—especially in thin year-end conditions:
- Macro headlines and rates: Broadcom often trades as a high-duration AI infrastructure name; any shift in rate expectations can move megacap tech multiples. Reuters flagged year-end adjustments and light volumes as potential volatility accelerants. [22]
- Fed minutes on Tuesday: The Fed’s December meeting minutes are one of next week’s top scheduled catalysts, according to Investopedia, and could ripple into AI/semiconductor sentiment. [23]
- Analyst follow-through: Weekend notes (like the TipRanks summary of target hikes) can influence Monday’s narrative if they gain traction on trading desks. [24]
- Trading hours awareness: The NYSE core session runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET (with pre-opening mechanics earlier), and liquidity can be uneven around year-end. [25]
- Holiday schedule: U.S. stock markets are closed Thursday, Jan. 1 for New Year’s Day; trading around holidays can compress liquidity and heighten gaps. [26]
Bottom line
Broadcom stock enters Monday’s session with the market closed this weekend but investor attention very much “on.” In the last 24–48 hours, the tone of fresh analysis has skewed constructive—emphasizing AI backlog visibility and long-run demand—while acknowledging the same sticking point that hit the stock earlier this month: how fast AI-related systems revenue grows, and what that does to margins and investor confidence.
For now, the next big swing factor is less about a new Broadcom headline and more about how markets digest Fed expectations, year-end positioning, and the margin-mix narrative when liquidity returns Monday morning. [27]
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. apnews.com, 5. apnews.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.investopedia.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. seekingalpha.com, 14. www.trefis.com, 15. 247wallst.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.prnewswire.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.investopedia.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.nyse.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.reuters.com
