NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:56 a.m. ET — Market closed
Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR) heads into the final trading week of 2025 with U.S. stock markets shut for the weekend, leaving investors to handicap Monday’s open using two main inputs: Bitcoin’s weekend tape and year-end equity positioning. Shares of Strategy last closed at $158.81 on Friday, Dec. 26, before slipping in after-hours trading to $158.14. Meanwhile, Bitcoin changed hands around $87,881 Sunday morning, a level that matters disproportionately for Strategy because its equity often trades like a high-beta proxy for BTC—sometimes magnifying both rallies and drawdowns. [1]
With cash equity markets closed, the near-term setup for MSTR is less about intraday catalysts and more about whether the next session opens into risk-on or risk-off conditions. Year-end trading tends to be thinner, and multiple market strategists have highlighted that lighter liquidity can exaggerate price moves—particularly for high-volatility names tied to crypto sentiment. [2]
Where Strategy stock left off Friday
Strategy ended Friday’s regular session near unchanged at $158.81, after trading between roughly $154.12 (low) and $159.91 (high) on the day. After-hours trading showed a modest pullback to $158.14. Those levels are important because they frame the technical “reference points” investors often watch heading into Monday: Friday’s close, the day’s low, and any after-hours drift that could hint at positioning into the open. [3]
The business model investors are really trading: Bitcoin treasury plus capital markets
Strategy began life as an enterprise software company and still sells analytics software, but its market narrative is now dominated by its role as a bitcoin treasury company—a shift that has reshaped how index providers, analysts, and investors classify the stock. Reuters’ company profile describes Strategy as a “bitcoin treasury and business intelligence company,” underscoring the dual identity that sits at the center of the debate around how MSTR should be valued and categorized. [4]
In a recent Investopedia interview, executive chairman and cofounder Michael Saylor argued the story now “goes beyond bitcoin exposure,” framing Strategy as a “capital markets platform.” In the same report, Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise Asset Management, said Strategy is “not as differentiated” as it once was after the rise of spot bitcoin ETFs and liquid options, while Citi analyst Peter Christiansen pointed to expanded investor outreach tied to Strategy’s preferred-share strategy and reiterated a Buy rating with a $485 price target. [5]
That framing matters for Monday because—when markets reopen—MSTR frequently reacts not only to BTC’s price, but also to perceptions about (1) financing flexibility, (2) index inclusion, and (3) whether share issuance is “accretive” or “dilutive” relative to the value of the company’s bitcoin per share.
What the company most recently disclosed: share issuance, no new BTC buys, larger cash reserve
The most concrete recent update came via a Form 8-K dated Dec. 22, 2025, which laid out three items that investors continue to debate:
- ATM equity sales: Strategy reported selling 4,535,000 shares of MSTR common stock during the period Dec. 15–Dec. 21, generating $747.8 million in net proceeds (net of sales commissions). The filing also listed remaining “available for issuance and sale” capacity across multiple securities, including common stock and several preferred share classes. [6]
- Bitcoin holdings unchanged that week: Strategy disclosed no bitcoin purchases during that same period, with aggregate holdings at 671,268 BTC as of Dec. 21, at an aggregate purchase price of $50.33 billion and an average purchase price of $74,972 (fees included). [7]
- A growing USD reserve: Strategy said it established a U.S. dollar reserve on Dec. 1 at $1.44 billion, and that the balance had increased to $2.19 billion as of Dec. 21, intended to support preferred dividends and interest on outstanding debt (with management discretion to adjust it). [8]
Why this matters now: using Sunday’s BTC price around $87,881, Strategy’s 671,268 BTC position implies a rough market value near $59 billion, about $8.7 billion above the disclosed aggregate purchase price—before considering debt, preferred securities, cash reserves, software cash flows, and the equity’s market premium/discount to net asset value. [9]
The newest headlines in the last 24–48 hours: institutional-position updates (13F-driven)
Over the past two days, the most prominent fresh “newsprint” around Strategy stock has centered on institutional ownership disclosures tied to quarterly filings—important for sentiment, but also worth treating as backward-looking snapshots rather than real-time flow.
MarketBeat’s SEC-filing summaries highlighted several moves, including:
- TB Alternative Assets Ltd. reporting a new position of 126,000 shares valued around $40.6 million (based on its filing), and noting the fund sized it as a meaningful position within its portfolio. [10]
- Pacer Advisors Inc. reporting it increased its stake by 41.7% in the third quarter, holding 33,136 shares valued around $10.68 million as of that filing. [11]
- Voya Investment Management LLC reporting it reduced its stake by 82.9% in the third quarter, leaving 9,663 shares valued around $3.11 million in that disclosure. [12]
Takeaway for Monday: these items can influence weekend narratives on social media and trading desks, but they generally do not represent “today’s flows.” They can still matter if they reinforce a broader theme—like concentrated ownership, shifting risk appetite, or institutions repositioning around the stock’s volatility profile.
The biggest forward-looking catalyst investors are watching: index eligibility and passive-flow risk
For many investors, the key non-Bitcoin risk is whether Strategy’s evolving identity—software company vs. digital-asset treasury—affects its place in major equity indexes.
Reuters reported that MSCI proposed in October that it could remove companies whose digital asset holdings are 50% or more of total assets from its global benchmarks, arguing they resemble investment funds, and that MSCI planned to announce a decision by Jan. 15 after a public consultation. Reuters also cited analyst estimates that exclusion could cost Strategy up to $9 billion in demand for its shares, with Jefferies’ Kaasha Saini saying the conversation extends beyond MSCI to the broader eligibility of digital-asset treasury companies. [13]
Earlier this month, Reuters also flagged risk around the Nasdaq 100 annual reshuffle, quoting Steve Sosnick (Interactive Brokers) on the vulnerability if the company were deemed more of a holding company than a software company, and citing Jefferies estimates of potential passive outflows. Reuters noted Nasdaq ultimately kept Strategy in the Nasdaq 100 during the reshuffle. [14]
What to watch next: index-policy headlines can land at any time, including outside market hours. If a weekend headline drops, MSTR can gap sharply at the next open—especially in light liquidity.
Analyst forecasts and Street views: targets spread wide, because the “BTC premium” is the variable
Strategy’s valuation debate is unusually sensitive to assumptions that aren’t standard for most large-cap equities: expected BTC price, the stock’s premium/discount to BTC net asset value per share, and the cost of capital for continued accumulation.
Recent published analyst/strategy perspectives show how wide the corridor is:
- Citi’s Peter Christiansen reiterated a Buy stance with a $485 price target in a report referenced by Investopedia, arguing Strategy’s preferred-share strategy and investor outreach could expand the buyer base. [15]
- A Zacks Equity Research note on Nasdaq.com described Strategy’s continued “Bitcoin accretion” and referenced holdings around 671,000 BTC, while assigning a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and discussing the durability of the accumulation strategy amid competition and volatility. [16]
- Several market summaries compiling analyst ratings continue to show broadly positive consensus language (for example, “Moderate Buy”), but with very wide target dispersion—reflecting disagreement about whether the equity should trade at a premium to BTC holdings, and how sustainable issuance-driven accumulation is at different valuations. [17]
For investors, the practical implication is that “upside/downside” cases often come down to a few moving parts:
- Bitcoin direction (and volatility)
- Whether Strategy continues issuing shares (and at what premium/discount)
- Credit and preferred-market conditions (financing costs)
- Index inclusion/exclusion headlines (passive flows)
Macro backdrop heading into Monday: year-end tape can be thin, and catalysts cluster
Broad-market context also matters because MSTR often trades as a high-beta expression of risk appetite.
Reuters’ “Week Ahead” outlook described investors looking for an upbeat end to a strong 2025, with the S&P 500 near the 7,000 milestone and attention on Fed minutes in the holiday-shortened week ahead, while also noting that light trading volumes and year-end adjustments can amplify moves. Reuters quoted Paul Nolte (Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management) and Michael Reynolds (Glenmede) on bullish momentum and the importance of rate-cut expectations. [18]
Kiplinger also characterized Friday’s session as low-volume and choppy while discussing the “Santa Claus Rally” seasonal window and the way thin conditions can skew moves across assets. [19]
If you’re watching MSTR for Monday’s open: a weekend checklist
Because the exchange is closed today, investors have a rare chance to plan for Monday without real-time noise. Here’s what typically matters most for Strategy stock into the next regular session (Monday, Dec. 29):
- Bitcoin’s weekend range and Sunday night futures
- BTC trades 24/7, and big weekend moves can translate into Monday gaps for crypto-linked equities like MSTR. Today BTC is around $87,881.
- The next “ATM / BTC / reserve” update
- Strategy’s Dec. 22 8-K quantified recent issuance, BTC holdings, and the USD reserve. Any subsequent filing indicating renewed BTC purchases—or further cash buildup—can shift the narrative quickly. [20]
- Index-methodology headlines
- MSCI’s consultation and the broader discussion about digital-asset treasury firms remain an overhang, with a decision timeline Reuters reported as by Jan. 15. [21]
- Liquidity and volatility risk
- Thin year-end trading can widen spreads and increase gap risk—especially for high-volatility, narrative-driven stocks. [22]
- Positioning vs. the “Bitcoin proxy” alternatives
- With spot bitcoin ETFs and options offering more direct BTC exposure, the market’s willingness to pay an equity premium for Strategy can change quickly—particularly if BTC is flat while dilution expectations rise. [23]
Bottom line
On a Sunday with U.S. markets closed, Strategy (MSTR) is effectively “waiting” for the next session’s risk appetite signal. The company’s latest filings underscore a key near-term tension: capital raised via common-stock issuance, no BTC purchases for the reported week, and a larger USD reserve designed to support dividends and interest—moves that can reduce balance-sheet stress but may alter the upside math for investors who bought MSTR as a pure, leveraged BTC accumulator. [24]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. assets.contentstack.io, 7. assets.contentstack.io, 8. assets.contentstack.io, 9. assets.contentstack.io, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.kiplinger.com, 20. assets.contentstack.io, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.investopedia.com, 24. assets.contentstack.io
